moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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The trade simulator says he's worth $50M, while he's getting paid about $28M. I get the low risk- 1 year number, but the number represents a net plus $50M, meaning they think he's really worth about $78M in 2020. That number is certainly debatable, but if he's worth anywhere near that in 2020, one has to think he'd be worth a lot in 2021, 2022 and 2023. He'd likely be worth more than $33M a year in 2024, 2025 & 2026. He might be worth near $33M in 2027 and maybe 2028. He may be worth less in 2028, 2029 and 2030.
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It will be interesting to see what Betts's trade value is the day after he signs.
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The trade simulator says he's worth +$50M despite being projected to make $28M. That's $78M. Why are people afraid to pay him $35M for 9-10 years? He's worth double that for the first few years. That will more than make up for the end years.
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Let's say we offer $320M/10 and someone else offers $340/10. That $28M could be used to keep Betts by countering with $341M.10 (in theory).
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That might be enough to sign this guy named Porcello everyone wants.
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Right. The 30% "difference" would amount to about $12M not $20M, then year 2 would be $8M (30% not 50%). The total savings might max out at about $28M over the 2 years after the reset, assuming we get right up to the max line two years in a row without going over. That's less than I suggested but still very significant.
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The reset is more about the following years- Betts or no Betts. The tax goes from 50% to zero in 2020 and 50% to 20% in 2021 and 30% in 2022. All totaled it could amount to more than $30M over 3 years, which could be the difference between us keeping Betts or not-m or signing an "extra" FA to $10M x 3 years. That's significant enough to be a goal to achieve,if not a "mandate." If the plan might involve going $39M over in 2021, that's about $20M in savings in just one year. Remember, if we keep Betts in 2020 and try to resign him for 2021 ans beyond, let's say for $35M a year, it's just adding about $7M a year oiver his arb contract of 2020. Using the $39M over mark, we could re-sign Betts and have $20M to spend on other FAs for 2021. We then look to see Pedey and others dropping off the rolls in the following years.
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Yes, the mandate is 2020, and any little bit helps, but we'll still have issues in 2021 and 2022. My guess is Henry will allow us to go over after the reset but not by enough to go over the max line (maybe not even the second line), and if we want to re-sign Betts or replace him "in kind," we'll need some space in 2021. This trade would greatly improve the 2021 and 2022 tax budget landscape.
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It would for '21 & '22
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Yes, I understood that to be the case, but Seatlle would need the actual payments in 2021 ans 2022.
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We could pitch in more money, especially in years 2021 and 2022, after Gordon's contract drops off. They do get Chavis, too, and he will cost very little and has 4+ years of team control. All Eovaldi has to do to change his negative trade value if pitch well for a month or two to start 2020.
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Okay, yes. Most pitchers can pitch with higher velocity in shorter outings.
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He was talking about Sale.
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MLBTR's rankings are based on total money projected not $/yr. If Porcello is projected at $11M/1, it's not hard to imagine he's worth more than $18M/2.
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How's this? Eovaldi (+$6M) & Chavis to Seattle for Dee Gordon (It's not about acquiring Gordon; it's about saving big money. Gordon has one year left at $13.5M with a $1M buyout for '21. His luxury tax hit is just $10M. Eovaldi is owed $17M for 3 more years. We pay $2M a year, making it $15M. We save $5M on the tax budget in 2020 then $15M for 2021 and 2022.) Gordon plays 2B in 2020 and then we free up more money to keep Betts or sign other free agents. Price (+$6M) & Velazquez to San Diego for Wil Myers (Again, this is not about acquiring Myers; it's about saving even bigger money. Myers is owed $22.5M x 3 years, but his luxury tax hit is just $13.8M x 3. Price is owed $32M x 3, but we'd pay $2M a year x 3, making it $30M for SD. His luxury tax cost is $31M-$2M=29. We'd save over $15M on the tax budget. Myers would play 1B or maybe some corner OF.) Tax budget savings: 2020: $20M 2021: $35M 2022: $35M If we trade JBJ, we'd have plenty of money to sign some FA pitchers this winter and next.
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I thought you once said, "Once you lose your velocity, you never get it back." Maybe that just applies to current Sox pitchers. Pom has been great for short stretches before. Porcello was great for one long stretch. I'm thinking Porcello has a better outlook than Pom, but I've been wrong before.
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Has been not "is."
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If Pomeranz gets $34M/4, I think Porcello will make much more than many here think he will get.
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I hardly ever suggest 3 team deals- 18 players, yes.
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Here are some interesting numbers from the Trade Values website: 120.8 Moncada 30.7 Kopech 8.8 Logan Allen 8.2 M Margot 8.1 Buttrey 7.7 M Dubon 6.0 Basabe 5.2 Shaun Anderson 4.0 Basabe 2.8 Quiroz 1.9 A Espinoza 0.5 G Bautista 0.5 Beeks 24.5 Casas 18.8 Dalbec 17.7 Chavis 14.0 Duran 13.7 Mata 10.6 D Hernandez 6.6 Jimenez 5.3 Song 4.6 Lugo 4.4 Ward 4.3 Groome 3.6 Decker 3.3 Houck & Cannon 2.9 Flores 2.5 Gonzalez 2.3 Diaz & Howlett 2.2 Lopez 2.1 Northcut 1.7 Chatham & Wilson 1.0 Netzer, Ockimey & Reyes
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LOL. I will say, in my defense, many of my trade suggestions are shot down by Sox fans as offering too much.
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I like the money saved, and we need a 1Bman. Myers might rebound.
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I've never been a big Johnson fan, but even I thought he had trade value. Just shows how biased we can be.
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I like the Price for Myers type idea
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I like the idea of dumping Price and or Eovaldi better
