moonslav59

My top 30 1. Early 2. Tolle 3. Jh Garcia 4. Arias 5. Perales 6. Witherspoon 7. Gonzales 8. Valera 9. Clarke 10. Fajardo 11. Soto 12. Godbout 13. Phillips 14, Holobetz 15. Travieso 16. Eyanson 17. Romero 18. Sandlin 19. Taylor 20. Jo Garcia 21. Paez 22. Mullins 23. Delzine 24. Ramos 25. Rivas 26. Aita 27. Bleis 28. Cespedes 29. Azocar 30. Uberstine

Another win for the Domers. They play USC at South Bend, next week. The schedule is pretty easy, so a playoff slot may be in the works.

harmony's been waiting a long time.

Brewers advance!

soxprospects.com updated their rankings https://www.soxprospects.com/index.html Here is the biggest jumpers and fallers (remember that some players graduated, so "jumps" can be mostly advancement by attrition): Jump: 54>20 Uberstine 40>11 Fajardo 13>1 Tolle 18>8 Clarke 19>9 Gonzales 28>22 Mullins 10>5 Early 17>12 Soto 5>2 Arias 4>3 Perales Unranked to.... 4. Witherspoon 14. Phillips 15. Eyanson 16. Godbout 21. Holobetz 23. Travieso Largest drops: 9>19 Cespedes 8>13 Sandlin 10>6 Romero 15>18 Bleis ________________ Lower Rankings: UP: 51>27 Azocar, 45>25 Drohan, 58>38 Hoppe, 35>29 Ramos, 34>30 Rivas 26>24 Taylor Down: 21>59 D Reyes, 22>32 Cason, 24>34 Wehunt, 27>33 Monegro, 36>45 Ingrassia 25>26 Castro (Can't believe he's still top 40.)

We do need a 1Bman, too.

I think Mayer would be a plus defender at SS, if he can stay healthy. It's harder and more expensive to get a SS than 3Bman or 2Bman, so it makes sense to have Mayer at SS, if Story moves to 2B or bolts. Would Brez take a risk on the Japanese basher at 3B, assuming Bregman bolts? 3B Murakami SS Mayer (Story) 2B Story (Romy) 1B Casas (Romy)

Toro elects free agency.

MLB.com lists the top 3B FA options: 1. Bregman 2. E Suarez 3. Moncada 4. Murakami (26 y/0 Homers once every 10 PAs) 5. Okamoto W Castro, Kiner-Falefa, Rengifo & A Rosario

Houck will be offered the arb, and we keep him. We make a couple 2 or 3 for one trades before the start of the 2026 season, so we don't need to cut a good player due to the 40 man roster squeeze on opening day. Once we add Houck to the 60 Day IL after opening day, we can add someone else, but it has to be someone not needing roster protection. We really needed to add Tolle and Early, this season, but ideally, it would have been better for the 2026 roster to wait to add one, next April. Neither were Rule 5 guys. That being said, we have a number of borderline 40 man roster players I would not cry over losing to DFA or a trade for a distant prospect: de Leon I Campbell Eaton (or Sogard) Grissom or DHam should be traded Hicks (trade with some cash?) N Lowe (non tender?) Kelly, Guerrero or Criswell (trade?) Maybe the whole idea of a 40 man roster crunch is a mirage.

I think Paez and Mullins are nice throw-ins, because they won't get selected for Rule 5. If there is doubt, we can wait until after the draft to trade them. I think teams want them, but not on their 40. Sandlin would likely be drafted, but teams might want him on their 40 (not all teams.) Uberstine looks like decent AAA depth that does not start the season on the 40.

Certainly Bello is more "tradeable," but I'm thinking we need to keep our young pitchers who have shown they can eat innings. I'd trust Bello as our 3/4 more than Tolle. I like Early more than anyone but Crochet, but I can't pencil him in as even our #5, right now. This is tricky exercise.

My opinion may change, but I'd like to see Tolle and Fitts in the pen. I'd give Early a shot at the #5 slot, but I'd want him to share that slot with Crawford or Dobbins. Something like this: 1. Crochet 2. _____ (Ryan?) 3. Bello 4. Sandoval 5. Early/Crawford/Dobbins/Harrison 9. Perales/Holobetz Openers: Criswell/Fitts

Good laydown. I'm not sure how much trade value the other pitching prospects have, but I think some may be highly coveted: Clarke, Valera, Holobetz and Fajardo in particular. My trade list might be: 1. Fitts, but I agree his pen value might exceed his trade value. 2. Crawford 3. Dobbins 4. Harrison (I think #2 & 3 have more trade value and maybe less upside) 5. Tolle (I think Bello and Sandoval are locks) Do not trade Early or Crochet. I think we need another top starter. Perales should not be traded. I'm hesitant to trade Valera, Fajardo, Holobetz or Clarke.

It's hard to know how TEX and AZ are looking at their budgets and near future chances, as well as some other teams. There may be a team out there I'm overlooking. AZ already traded some of their better players and lose Gallen to free agency. TEX has to be dissapointed, and have to see an aging roster in front of them. I doubt they chose to open a window for a 1-2 year stretch: they may decide to retool, and we have a lot of young talent and high potential players. I realize most of us overvalue our own players, but I also think we undervalue some players who don't have flashy numbers or just had a tough season. For example, I think many GMs would jump at the opportunity to get Rafaela and even Campbell. Both are not overpaid. Many view Abreu as a the dreaded "platoon guy," but every GM would love him on their roster and would pay a pretty high price to get him. I will agree that Casas has lost almost all his trade value, and that's why I'd keep him, but maybe some GMs would pay for him. Our younger pitchers have to be on many GMs minds. With the cost and risk associated with FA pitchers, I think every team is looking at trading for young and low-cost pitchers, even if some have only potential or speculative value. I loved the strategy of loading up on depth, and the recent focus on pitching depth is one major reason we made the playoffs, this season, but with our window open wide, right now, I think the focus needs to be on higher quality, at the expense of extended, decent quantity. I see this for our line-up and am with Drew on the call for a couple big bats- minimum. I also see this with our rotation. We have a lot of solid #3-4 types or potential #2-4 types, but only Crochet looks to be a sure bet top 60 SP'er in 2026. I'd like to see us have 3 top 60 pitchers, or at least 2. Sure, Bello & Gio were top 60 in most relevant categories, and that is a big reason we did this well, but Gio is a goner, and Bello raised some questions to end the season. I'm certainly not against the idea of having quality depth for our rotation. We need to keep some. We saw what happened when we traded Priester, and ended up needing to trade for a SP'er at the deadline, despite looking like we had 12-13 SP'ers, last winter, but how else to we get top quality players, if JH is not going to buy 3-4 of them via free agency? IMO, we need to strategically determine who we should keep and who we think are the valuable players we need to part with. We aren't getting quality players for DHam, Yoshida or Hicks, so we need to be serious. Our areas of strength and depth are the OF and pitching. With the DH position filled, 3 times over, using an OF'er to DH is not really an option, and the worst defender of our top 4 OF'er is Duran. I have to think his value as a LF'er on another team is way more than as a DH on the Sox- not to mention what do we do with Yoshida, Campbell, Romy and Ref, if he returns? We have to trade one from Duran, Abreu or Rafaela. With Jh Garcia, Campbell and emergency back-up Yoshida as depth, we can afford to lose one. We aren't getting an ace or solid #2 SP'er for an OF'er by himself, so we have to add a pitcher or two, and that is more complex and scary, to me, than choosing which OF'er to trade. Much of the pitching values we have are on the potential/speculative side of evaluating their talent levels, or they are returning from injury or drop offs to end the 2025 season. Some saw their stock shoot up in Sept, like Early and Harrison. I can't say who are the right pitchers to trade, and I tend to think teams are willing to take 3 or 4 for one trades, like the Crochet deal, when most want 1 for 1 trades or 2 for 1 with non 40 man roster high prospects added on, if it is more than 1 for 1. We know Crochet is the keeper, and it is likely Bello and Sandoval return as SP'ers expected to have an opening day rotation slot. Houck is out until 2027 (maybe Sept '26, but I'm not counting on that.) The leaves all these pitcher trade candidates. 29 Crawford 25 Dobbins (may start the year on the IL) 23 Harrison 25 Fitts (may be a pen arm in 2026) 23 Early 22 Tolle 22 Perales 23 Holobetz 22 Clarke 19 Valera 19 Fajardo 22 Aita 22 Monegro, 22 Tygart, Neely& McShane, 23 Ingrassia & 24 Wehunt, (would be throw-ins) 19 Cason (wont be traded) 18 Travieso (wont be traded) 17 Delzine (wont be traded) Future dept (just drafted/wont be traded) Witherspoon, Phillips, Eyanson, Foutch, Morgan Others: Criswell & Winckowski (likely pen arms with minimal trade value, anyway.) Sandlin, Paez & Mullins are Rule 5 guys that look like pen arms for 2016. (They may have some trade value.) Uberstine, Drohan, Anderson, I Coffey are AAA depth arms not on the 40 man roster. (little trade value, if any.) Pen arms that might be included in trades: Kelly, Guerrero, I Campbell. I think we keep Murphy, Song & Moran as AAA pen depth. That's a lot of arms to choose from, and I'm sure many GMs like many of them. How much do they like them? How much does Brez like them? My guess is we see a Duran/Abreu, Fitts/Harrison & Sandlin/Mullins type trade.

I agree with Bell. A #1 is basically a top 20% SP'er. (Top 30 among 150 SP'ers in MLB.) A number 2 is about a top 20-40% SP'er, and so on... Yes, a team can have 2-3 #1's. To me, and "ace" is sometimes used to define your best pitcher. He could be your best starter on a team with 3 #1, of the best pitcher on a team with nobody higher than the #3 ranking (#40-60%.) The term "ace" is also used to define a #1 SP'er, so there is some mixing of the terms. I rate Ryan as a solid #2. Yes, Early could be a #2 as early as 2026, so I would not include him in a Ryan trade, and Ryan's drop off to end this season is worrisome, as well. I'd rate Keller as a #3, but a reliable one who is borderline #2, when you rank all the top 120 SP'ers in MLB. He's in the top 60 in most categories. When you attempt to rank the SP'ers by stats or metrics, the sample size choice is arbitrary. Is it last year, last 2 years, last 3 years.... Do you discount for aging pitchers in obvious decline, or add value to a younger pitcher who had a bad season early in his career that is part of the chosen sample size being used. If you use fWAR over the past 3 years, it will devalue a great young pitcher who has just 1-2 years in a rotation. It will reward a 36 year old pitcher who had a great year at age 34 and then sharply declined. That being said, for most pitchers, I like the 3 year sample size, and if I want a 120 SP'ers (I avoided using 150) sample size from 2023-2025, I need to use 240 IP as the minimum IP. Here is what we come up with for fWAR: 15.9 Skubal, 15.3 Wheeler, 14.9 Webb, 12.8 C Sanchez & S Gray 10.8-12.4: Gausman, Valdez, Sale, Cease, Kirby 9.9-12.4: Skenes, Crochet, Fried, Luzardo, R Suarez 9.4-9.6: Lopez, Wacha, Gilbert, H Brown, C Ragans 8.7-9.1: Snell, Gallen, Peralta, Glasnow, Eovaldi 8.2-8.7: Kikuchi, Ryan, H Greene, Bibee, Castillo I don't really see anyone that jumps out as not belonging, but there are a few pitchers I would say belong in the top 30 not listed here. If you use ERA- not fWAR, we see a lot of juggling, and some 13 new names, but many of the same guys top 30: Skenes, Skubla, Snell, Yamo, Bradish Sale, Wheeler, Cole, Sanchez, Fried Senga, Crochet, Kershaw, King, Burnes Greene, Steele, Eovaldi, Abbott, Ragans Webb, Imanaga, Peralta, Valdez, M Kelly Blanco, Glasnow, Woo, Suarez, Wacha I kinda think the ERA- list has better pitchers than fWAR, but maybe I'm biased. Here are some selected #2's by ERA- Lugo, Gray, Pivetta, Lopez, Castillo, Bello, Bassitt #3's: Keller at #63 (98 ERA-) Rodon, Eflin, Gio and those at 100 or more: ERod, Cease, Houck, Crawford, Mony #4s: Jon Gray, Heaney, M Perez, Alcantara, Severino, Gibson Sox pitchers and winter targets by fWAR, not listed above: 33. Keller 7.9 (63rd in ERA-) 37. Flaherty 7.6 38. Eflin 7.4 39. Bassitt 7.3 44. M Kelly 6.9 51. King 6.1 54. Bello 5.6 (53rd in ERA-) 67. Monty 4.9 71. Houck 4.7 (80th in ERA-) 85. Crawford 4.0 (86th)

Assume equal K rates, GIDP and outs that advance runners.

Some other players that may be available for a trade, due to a cheap owner and or an increasing contract: PIT: Keller $16.5m>$18M>$20M ($15.4M AAV) MIA: Alcantara $17M & club option '27 for $21M ($2M buyout) $11.2M AAV AZ: K Marte $15M>$12M>$20M>$22M> $22M> $11.5M player option in '31 ($19.4M AAV) TX: Seager $31M x 6 (#32.5M AAV ) Semien $26M>$26M>$20M ($25M AAV,) Nate: $25M>$20M ($25M AAV)

Would you rather have a .300 batter with a .350 OBP or .275 and .375? How about .300 with 10 Hrs vs .275 with 25 Hrs? (Same OBP)

How about the three Rays with one last team option with buyouts? 1B Yandy Diaz $12M (No buyout) 2B Brandon Lowe $11.5M ($500K buyout) RP Pete Fairbanks $7M ($1M buyout) We certainly will not trade for all 3, but they'd all surely make our 26 man roster, as it stands now. Diaz over Lowe or Casas. Lowe over DHam, Grissom and Sogard. Fairbanks over all but 3-4 pen arms likely to make the 8 man pen. It's hard to know who the Rays covet, but we know they don't want high-prices players. Even Duran at $7*M then 2 arbs might be too expensive for them. They might like guys like Rafaela and Campbell, knowing they can trade them, when their contracts grow larger. They might like DHam, but if they do, not as the centerpiece of a deal. Would DHam & Sandlin get un Lowe? Romero & Mullins? Casas for Diaz? Sandlin or Mullins for Fairbanks? Paez & Monegro? Campbell & Mullins for all three? (I'm not sure I'd do that, unless we got Fairbanks or Lowe to extend.) I'm sure they'd like a young pitcher or two, but I'm not sure we'd give up a real good one for a one and done player(s.) I doubt Rule 5 guys like Sandlin or Mullins get it done. The Rays have 40 man roster issues, too.

Abreu or Rafaela better fit that situation, or we involve a 3rd team. If the names Garcia, Arias and Tolle was legit, it does point away from Duran for Ryan. I'm wondering if the name Tolle was the reason for Brez's "no." You can't just sub two next tier pitchers to replace Tolle (or Early) but maybe MN likes some guys we'd be surprised with.

These teams may not want farther away guys like Valera, Clarke, Fajardo or Holobetz. They may think Perales is too big a risk. If it comes down to Early or Tolle, I'm thinking long and hard before accepting the deal. I'm not sure how much these teams value Harrison, Fitts or Dobbins and Crawford, but one of them could be included instead of a top prospect. One point that jumps out to me is that we have so many pitchers that almost any GM will be attracted to one or two of them. The other major point is that we have to be sure we don't give up the "wrong one," but who are we to know which one that is. Early looks like he's the keeper, but a month ago, we'd have said Tolle. Having another tier beyond these guys listed that includes Witherspoon, Phillips, Eyanson, Travieso & Delzine, but too far away to seriously consider does help ease the idea of parting with 1-2 young pitchers. I did not mention throw-in types like Wink, Sandlin, Mullins, Uberstine, Paez and maybe Aita, Monegro & Cason..

I think he was gonna be safe, anyway.

Yup and Sale's is N/A

I think we will try to couple Duran with Harrison or Crawford or maybe even Dobbins before we allow Tolle or Early into the offer. I'm not sure what sort of trade value Perales has, until he's shown he's back healthy, but including him is another option. Guys like Criswell, Sandlin, Mullins and Uberstine have little trade value. It seems like teams no longer beg for far away, high upside pitching prospects, anymore, but Valera, Fajardo, Clarke and Holobetz all have some serious upside potential, but I'm not sure I want to sell low on any of them. I do think our management team needs to identify who they can part with, and just hope he's not the next Priester.