moonslav59

Assuming we could get Holt for $4M x 2, does even $4M prevent us from getting the 2 decent pitchers we need?

One now and one at the deadline.

Of course, the risk is great. I just don't see Betts substantially declining as quickly as many seem to think he will. He will lose value as his speed declines, but he has power and quick wrists, like Henry Aaron.

Do they still want an OF'er? (JBJ?)

I'm certainly not high on many of the players on this list, but chances are a few look good enough in ST'ing to be chosen over Houck and Mata. If healthy locks (9): Sale, ERod, Eovaldi, Perez, Workman, Barnes, Taylor, Walden, DHern Out of options (3): Hembree, Weber & Brice (will have to DFA) Assuming no or 1 DFA, that leaves 1-2 slot for... Brasier Velazquez Brewer Shawaryn Osich Mazza Hart Springs MHall Not on 40 man roster: Johnson Poyner Houck McGrath (Projected to start in AA) Reyes Mata Ward Feltman

JBJ, Workman and Chavis for Matz & Smith (maybe Marisnick- the cheater?)

Yes!

No. Even if he looks good.

Okay, he'll be 32 until October 7th. I'll call it 32. I actually think he'll be fine from 33-35 or 36, too and maybe decent for a few years more.

The "big deal" was about no reset and still having Price's contract on the books as we seek to extend Betts or replace him, so yes, all about "after this season".

I wonder, if people use an injury excuse to take out a pitcher, they will have to go on the IL. I can see some teams milking this rule.

Exactly! Preposterous theory. Like Sox brass did not know the serious backlash from trading Betts was coming. Bloom did a magical job maximizing the return. He did better with the redo. I know trading Price leaves a hole, but he was entering his last 3 years, aging quickly and had not been all that reliable for the last 3 years. I know people disagree with my monetary value placed on Price (thinking he's worth maybe $10-12M a year x 3 on the open market), but even if you think he will be worth $16M x 3 for 3 years, we broke even while adding budget space. I think we more than broke even just on the Price part of the whole deal. Getting Downs & Wong over Graterol seems like a stroke of genius. The big risk is Verdugo, but I trust Bloom's ability to correctly evaluate opposing team talent. He's a whiz at it. I wish I could recite all the winning deals he made with TB, but I'm sure it would be eye opening. Let's give Bloom some time and not expect instant success and 100% pluses on his deals. This first big one is a doozy, and he will likely live or die by the results of just this one deal, but I hope not. We gave up too quickly on Ben. I hope we learned from that.

We'll probably be best served doing both: Acquire a 5th starter now and make a deadline trade, assuming we are in the race. Usually, the best deals available, in terms of not having to send a nice package back in return, are the ones that involve modest to highly paid pitchers, where the team is looking to dump salary. A JBJ for a SP'er at the deadline seems less likely, since salary dump teams that are out of it won't want JBJ. I guess we could do two deals or a 3-way trade. To me, it might make best sense, assuming there is a trade partner at this late point in the spring, willing to trade us a SP'er for JBJ plus someone else (Chavis? Dalbec? Walden?) or again find a 3 way deal. We may have to pay part of JBJ's salary and pick up a pitcher with a salary that is more than JBJ's. We will need to leave enough budget space for a deadline deal that keeps us under the tax. It could be a fine line to walk, financially, but without trading JBJ (or DFA'ing him early in the season), I think the budget space left will be too small to allow us to get higher impact pitchers.

It makes a lot of sense to finally get a RH'd back-up/platoon type bat in our OF, so JD will only play there in NL parks. We may see Pillar play some vs RHPs, but that will probably happen mostly when someone is hurt or slumping. If we strategically rest Beni and JBJ (Verdugo hits L-R about the saame) only against LH'd starters, I can see Pillar starting just about every game vs righties. I think he's more than just insurance against Verdugo's health. I could see him start every game in LF or CF vs a LH'd starter and maybe get a few games in RF vs RHPs. Yes, plenty of ABs. Let's look at the splits: OPS Career/2019 vs RHPs .830/.764 Beni .783/.807 Verdugo .750/.787 JBJ .676/.681 Pillar vs LHP .785/.843 Verdugo .766/.823Pillar .696/.796 Beni .669/.640 JBJ Last year, we faced 54 LH'd starters and 108 RH'd starters. In theory, we might sit JBJ vs about 35-40 lefties, Beni 8-15 and Verdugo 2-5. Vs, RHPs, Pillar might start 5-10 games in RF. This assumes no injuries and about the same ratio of L-R starters in 2020.

I'm not sure about "soon," but likely at some point near his mid thirties. After 5 years, he'll only be 32- the same age as JD, and nobody wants him gone anytime "soon."

I don't either, and I've been one of his biggest supporters from the (horrible) start. We have serious pitching needs and may need more cap space than we have.

He needs to renounce his Jeter fandom or be traded.

Well, it's not obvious that is the purpose. We might keep Betts as $10M might be a bargain by then, if he's still producing. To me, the pay structure I suggested matches up more to him projected value by year than just paying him $32.3M x 12 years, and it helps the player. It also assumes we can find a trade partner, if he sucks by then, but then again, if we offer to pay his full contract as I mentioned we could theoretically do, then that would be an obvious skirting around paying taxes- but still not likely illegal, unless the rules change by then.

No doubt. I think it hasn't sunk in yet, for me.

Agreed, and I have him lower than Mata, but how certain are we about Casas?

True, but some sort of tax has been around since 1997, and even if it goes away, we might still be able to cut salary by Trading an aging Betts making $10M a year. If there's no tax anymore, than that's one more point in favor of locking Betts up long term.

Why should they or the union care. Front-loading a contract helps the player. The money he makes can be put to use and earn interest. As far as I know, there are no rules against it, and I do know some players get deferred payments long after they retire. That seems worse than my idea. Worse than my idea to have Pedey tear up his contract owing him $25M over the next 2 years, retire, then sign him to a $26M lifetime services contract.

I think there has only been 1 thirteen year deal.

Very risky, yes, but like I said, if he has an AVV of $32.3M ($420/13), but only get's paid $10M a year the last 3 years, we could trade him AND PAY EVERY DOLLAR to the other team. We'd save $22.3M on the lux tax budget each of his last 3 years. That $30M lost was really paid for his earlier years, when he was, in theory, underpaid.

My top rankings might look like this: 1. Downs 2. Casas 3. Mata 4. Jimenez 5. Dalbec 6. Ward 7. Groome 8. Wong