moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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That's why I left Casas and Downs off the list. I included Duran, because I don't share the same optimism on him as many here. Maybe Bloom disagrees with me, and I trust he knows more about him than I do. These are just my opinions. For all we know, Chavis, Chatham and Duran could end up being better than Dalbec, Downs and Casas.
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Agreed, but if Bloom really likes Downs and sees him as part of the future "foundation," he may be near "off-limits." That's why I listed him separately. Keeping your best 2-3 prospects is usually, but not always, part of a plan to rebuild for long term success.
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Dalbec can play 1B or 3B. By the time Casas is ready, Devers will be a FA.
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We can, but the odds are low, and to me, it makes more sense to look to improving in 2021 while focusing on 2022 and beyond. A few one year deals for 2021, but any longer term deal should be for players that look to improve 2-4 years out from now. I also don't think the foundation we have, now, is as good as the one we had after 2012 or 2015, especially in terms of young talent and the amount of tradeable prospects and/or budget space we had those winters. Unless Henry decides we can go up to or over the second luxury btax line, this winter (doubtful), we don't have a big budget to work with, and our farm is not promising much help for the 2021 season. Apples and oranges.
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...and if we spend the $16M wisely, it could look good for both teams or just us, if Price struggles. The way I see it, even if Price does well, he's very unlikely to do $32M/yr well and probably not even $16M/yr well.
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I'm not doubting we got a great haul, including dumping half Price's salary. I was responding to your opinion that it was "shocking." The fact that the Dodgers got Betts and won a long-awaited ring is NOT irrelevant. It was the reason we got back what we got. NOT SHOCKING! We gave up greatness and got a great return.
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Were you shocked that Betts put the Dodgers over the top? You gotta give to get.
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I'd rather trade Groome + Ward than Mata, but my thoughts are that Pittsburgh will want some top talent for those two decent starter- both in their prime, and both with 2 years of team control remaining. I agree on trying to keep the core of Devers, Casas, Mata & Verdugo with DHern & Dalbec as two I'd only let go for worthwhile returns. Looking at the values assigned to our trading chips by the Trade Values site, I'd say these are the most tradable players on our roster: 21.0 Vaz 12.1 Duran 8.5 Jimenez 7.5 Chavis 5.5 Beni 4.9 Chatham Maybe Downs at 26.4
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Duran, Mata, Chavis, Beni & Chatham for Taillon, Musgrove & Polanco
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Musgrove and Tailon are still squarely in prime for both of their remaining arb years. I'm seeing recent improvement- not backsliding with both. Taillon just turned 29 ten days ago. He had a 3.55 ERA and 1.169 WHIP from 2018-2019. Those numbers blow away any of our current and healthy SP'ers. Musgrove turns 28 in five days. His 4.23 ERA and 1.205 WHIP also compares very well with our starters. Both are in the meat of their prime years. Neither are aces, but we need rotation depth and quality. I'd still seek a #1-2 type, but these trades do not use any of our best trading chips or cost all that much on our spending budget.
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Chavis is likely a dud. Groome & Ward have potential. I like Dalbec, but getting both SP'ers is worth it. I'd do any of these trades in a heart beat. Polanco could be DFA'd and the trades would still be worth it. 2 years of either pitcher are worth what Polanco is being paid. Out of the 124 pitchers with 400+ IP since 2026, here's how the two starters rank in these categories: WAR 47. Taillon 9.5 (Bumgarner 9.8) 60. Musgrove 8.2 (Leake 8.6) ERA- 42. Taillon 89 (same as ERod- Lester was 87) 84.Musgrove 104 xFIP- 34. Taillon 88 (Price 87/S Gray 88) 44. Musgrove 93 (Gausman & Quintana 93) Musgrove looks better over the last 3 years (131 pitchers with 220+ IP) WAR 35. Musgrove 6.6 (Tanaka 6.5/Porcello 5.9) 61. Taillon 4.7 (Price 4.8/ Yarbrough 4.6) ERA- 31. Taillon 83 (same as Price) 75.Musgrove 101 (Gausman 101) xFIP- 32. Taillon 89 (same as Price, Tanaka & Stroman) 54. Musgrove 94 (R Ray 94/ Happ 98)
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I might prefer 2 years of Taillon over 2 arb years of Musgrove, but I think, if we take on Polanco's contract with any deal we make with the Pirates, the return would not have to be all that much. Polanco is owed $11.6M/1. Musgrove has 1 arb year left (est at $3.75M). Taillon has 2 arb years left (est at $2.25M). Trade Values: Musgrove 36.4 Taillon 20.3 Polanco -13.5 The trade values site accepted these deals: Chavis for Polanco & Taillon Duran, Chavis and Groome for Polanco & Musgrove. Dalbec, Duran, Chatham, Ward & Groome for Polanco, Musgrove & Taillon
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It would be nice to have one significant acquisition to talk about.
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Now, it makes total sense! Hang 'em high Chiam!
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Even if we knew Beni would return to form, we'd still sign a CF'er. (Maybe a RF'er, if we move Verdugo to CF.)
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To me, that was a plus for us. Others seem to think LA got the better on that one part of the deal.
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My top 15 Sox Prospects (not that I know more than soxprospects or anyone else) 1. Dalbec 2. Casas 3. Mata 4. Downs 5. Houck 6. Jimenez 7. Ward 8. Seabold 9. Rosario 10. Duran 11. Potts 12. Song 13. Groome 14. Wong 15. Wallace
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Even that one needed a third team getting involved.
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It sounds like a derogatory term.
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All the more highlight shown on the pitching.
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Good points. On the SB drop-off: Betts 30>16 (OBP .438>.391) Beni 21>10 (OBP .366>.343) JBJ 17>8 (a year older and slower) but, maybe not... 2018>2019 (singles+ BBs) Betts 177>197 Beni 176>145 JBJ 107>115
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New rankings... https://soxprospects.com/index.html (ranking fall 2019) 1. Casas (same) 2. Downs (n/a) 3. Mata (2) 4. Duran (6) 5. Jimenez (4) 6. Dalbec (5) 7. Houck (7) 8. Ward (10) 9. Seabold (n/a) 10. A Ramirez (12) 11. Song (8) 12. Groome (3) 13. Yorke (n/a) 14. Bonaci (n/a) 15. Rosario (n/a) 16. Lugo (13) 17. Potts (n/a) 18. Murphy (14) 19. Jordan (n/a) 20. Decker(15) 21. Wong 22. Bello 23. Wallace 24. Zeferjahn 25. Arauz 26. Bazardo 27. J Rodriguez 28. Feltman 29. Wilson 30. C-J Liu 31. Grullon 32. Aybar 33. Drohan 34. Castellanos 35. Lopez 36. Blalock 37. Howlett 38. Chatham 39. Cannon 40. Perales
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The injury and durability issues came up harshly. I don't think that was expected to the extreme it occurred. Also, we had too many unexpected declines: While a decline was probably likely from Betts, after that great 2018 season, a 163 point OPS drop was rather extreme. Pearce fell off a cliff, but the real cliff diving came with our pitching staff. Only ERod improved his WAR, among our top innings pitchers: Sale 6.2> 3.6 Porcello 2.4> 1.8 Price 2.4> 2.3 Eovaldi 1.5>-0.3 (and Nathan was not with the 2018 team all year!) Much blame was directed towards our 2019 pen, but the SP'ers saw a huge decline. I don't think this sharp decline was to be expected. Team SP'er WAR decline: 14.3 to 10.9 (65 less IP'd, too) Team RP'er WAR (even without Kimbrel) 4.0 to 5.6 (78 more IP'd)
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Very true. The injury and durability issues came up harshly in 2019, but I don't think, even in hindsight, the window should have closed after 2018. I think the whole "plan" was to build up a super team with a 5-6 year window, expecting a rebuild of some sort afterwards...maybe not expecting a "cliff" but knowing some sort of regrouping would be needed by 2022, at the latest. IMO, part of Henry's loss of faith, or whatever we want to call it, in DD was that "the window" we invested so much into, only lasted 3 years- not 5+ years. What a great 3 years that was, though!
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True, but we were looking at having full seasons from Eovaldi, Pearce, ERod and Sale and a Devers getting one year closer to peak prime. Yes, Price's durability was iffy, but didn't we feel better about him after his 2018 playoff performance than ever before? A step down may have been expected, but winning 108 games in 2018 allowed us to "step down" to 98 or 100 wins and still be a top contender. I always felt like "the window" would end after 2019 or 2020- maybe even 2022.
