moonslav59

1. Pedro 2. VTek & Lowe 3. Dodger Dump

You keep bringing him up as about the worst case scenario possible. Yes, much can happen, but your mentioning Pablito so often seems to indicate you see this as Raphael's path. Or not.

That's what makes the trade so fascinating. I rank it as a top 3 Sox trade of all time.

I've said this all along.

Agreed. Chavis and Arroyo will get every chance to win a more permanent spot of the roster. If either fails, give Munoz a second look-see.

Yes. Will it be 2021? IDK

Plus, that trade, IMO, just happened to be one of the best trades the Sox have ever made, so there is that component to the deal.

His highest OPS by team was with the Sox at ages 29-30. .895 BOS .888 SDP (ages 24-28) .793 LAD (ages 31-35) .673 TEX (ages 22-23) .672 NYM (age 36) He followed the bell curve pretty closely (kinda flat at the top): 862>849>871>958>904>957>806>803>817>830>784>642>

I never said career 1.050. I'm talking a season or two at around 1.050 when he reaches peak prime. A hitter has hit over 1.050 forty-six times since 2000. A hitter has hit over 1.030 nearly seventy times since 2000, including JD Martinez, Ozuna, Jim Edmonds, Brian Giles and Carlos Pena. I don't think it's a stretch to think Devers has a season around 1.050 in the next 1-4 years. I'm not big on comparing Devers to Big Papi, and Papi was somewhat of a "late bloomer." He actually had his 4th best OPS year in his final season at age 40! Papi did follow, almost perfectly, a blee curve from ages 24 to 33, then saw a second bell curve from 33-38 or 39. 24-33 810> 799>839>961>983>1001>1049>1066>877>794 33-40 794>899>953>1026>959>873>913>1021

I realize I could be wrong. I once projected 50 HRs from AGon. Devers is a pure hitter. He's played at every level at the youngest age. He's still 1-3 years from peak prime. I'm just expecting a bell curve.

I added Chavis: Cordero 573 vs LHP/ Arroyo is 597 vs LHP/ Gonzalez is 724 vs LHP/ Chavis .699 vs LHP Renfroe 717 vs RHP/ Arroyo is 678 vs RHP/ Gonzalez is 732 vs RHP/ Chavis .740 vs RHPs (reverse split for Arroyo & Chavis)

My math skills are going downhill, fast!

I'm talking over 1.050 and 50 HRs! Yes, BLOW AWAY! He's still a couple years from peak prime, and his "rawness" is wearing off.

I would flip JD and Dalbec. Dalbec has "more to prove" than JD. I could see Cordero maybe not starting vs LHPs, but he should get a chance to show what he can do versus them. If he struggles, we could play EHern in CF vs lefties and Arroyo, Chavis or Marwin at 2B (batting them 9th).

I thought it was pretty clear I was comparing EHern to the Holt we saw with the Sox, not the much older one. I try to spell things out more clearly going forward.

There is still a real possibility that Devers can blow away his 2019 season. I'm more than just hopeful he can do that. I am fairly confident he will.

I'm hopeful Ottavino can win the job and do well. Our starters and pen should be much better than last year, so maybe we can reduce the amount of save opportunities available to blow.

You're welcome. My focus was on the top 6-7 in the line-up, but I think many are short-changing our 7-9 hitters. True, some other teams have deeper and stronger bottom of the orders, but our bottom 7-9 willbe better than most and maybe even better than 20-24 other teams. Vaz has a .798 OPS with 30 HRs in about 700 PAs from 2019-2020. That's a damn good 7-9 hitter. EHern is not a bad hitter at all. He should hit about .750. That leaves Renfroe of Cordero (off-handed) or Arroyo, Chavis or Marwin, if EHern plays CF. This may be our weakest slot in the line-up, but there is some hope it's not all that bad, and we have 5 guys to choose from as the hottest of them all.

While line-ups may not mean much, batting someone first or ninth means a lot more of less PAs for Kiki. In 2019, the number 1 slot had 241 more PAs than our # 9 slot.

Not sure, but fangraphs projected 87.

Holt cost $5.8Mover his last 2 arb years, so about $8M more, but nice try. (As a FA, Holt signed for $3.25M/1 for the Brewers after leaving the Sox.)

I'm fine with Bogey 4th and JD 5th. The modern theory is the 3 slot is no longer for your best or second best hitters- maybe not even 3rd or 4th best. That means Devers or Verdugo should bat second. They both bat lefty, so flipping them vs lefties or righties doesn't work, well. (One could argue flipping Bogey vs LHP and Devers or Verdugo v RHP in the 2 slot might make some sense.) I'm not big on the lefty-righty line-up philosophy, but having Verdugo (L) and Devers (L) 1 and 2 and Bogey ® and JD ® up 4 & 5 might not be ideal. Assuming we go "modern" and put someone like the Renfroe-Cordero platoon up 3rd (or Dalbec), is this what it might look like? 1. Verdugo L 2. Devers L 3. Renfroe R/ Cordero L 4. Bogey R 5. JD R 6. Dalbec R Would this look nicer? 1. Verdugo L 2. Bogey R 3. Renfroe R/Cordero L 4. Devers L 5. JD R 6. Dalbec R The idea of EHern up first, pushes the better hitters deeper into the line-up. (It's called "lengthening the line-up" to those not familiar with baseball terminology.) I'm seriously doubtful about the idea working. R EHern L Verdugo R JD L Devers R Bogey R/L Renfroe/Cordero R Dalbec R Vaz R Cordero/Renfroe or Arroyo/Chavis or S Marwin

Remember that clown poster on that ‘other site?’ He used to say the “manager needs to talk to ______ and tell him we need you to get on base more often.” (Like it’s that easy.)

In terms of wins each season, yes, but in terms of pre-season expectations for the following year and beyond, this is different.

He seems like Holt Plus!