moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Me, too. Certainly for Lindor. It's absurd to think otherwise on Lindor.
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Not at all. In fact, that's his worst area, and it is just one component of what makes a SS average, above or below. UZR/150 in not about just range. Here is a breakdown of the 3 components fangraphs uses and his ranking in each (out of 27 SSs with 2500 innings at SS since 2016). Range 25th at -12.6 (almost last) ErrR 4th at +13.8 (he makes the plays hit to him with very few unforced errors- like I said. DPR 23rd at -1.7 (not good with DPs) If "dependable" means he makes very few unforced errors, fine. He does make plays other SS make due to comparative poor range. He turns less DPs than his peers. No, he does NOT have average range.
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I'll never agree he's even average. He makes plays hit right to him. If that makes him "dependable," then good for him. His offense is so plus, I can look the other way. What upsets me the most about his D, is that early in his career, it looked like he started to improve, then he leveled off and maybe even got worse. He's had a negative B-R dWar for 5 straight seasons. He has a -0.1 UZR/150 since 2016 (the year after he looked like he was getting better). He is last in DRS since 2016 at -55. (the next guy is at -35.) I'm not sure how anyone can call that average. When you use the word average, it calls into play all the other SSs who play enough innings at SS. He's been pretty close to average in UZR/150 (17 out of 31 SSs with 2000+ innings since 2016 and 21 out of 41 SSs with 1500 innings since 2016). If that's all you go by, and the fact that he is dependable with balls hit right to him, maybe you can stretch to call him average, but I will always disagree on this one.
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Okay, 23 HRs in 493 MLB ABs. (23-24 years old)
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Certainly possible. Most players adjust, then maybe need to adjust again after a new "book is written." Arroyo is at .643 career (SSS), but he has shown he can hit for average in the minors. I'm just not one to put much stock in selected sample sizes, even if recent. I'm not saying I ignore them, and certainly the high K rate is worrisome and makes it more likely he may never "adjust" enough. I'd still start Chavis, "tomorrow," but he'd be on a short leash, and if Arroyo seems to be looking sharp at the plate, sure. Again, it's a close call, and I know there's nothing better to talk about, but this choice is not going to make much of a difference one way or the other, even if it has to be made for real by opening day.
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What if we added Ozuna instead of Marisnik? 1. Bogey SS 2. Verdugo CF 3. Ozuna LF 4. Devers 3B 5. JD DH 6. Dalbec 1B 7. Renfroe RF 8. Vaz C 9. Hernandez 2B Bench: Plawecki, Arroyo, Chavis SP: Sale, Eovaldi, ERod, Odorizzi, Kluber, Pivetta RP: Hand, Lopez, Barnes, Brasier, DHern, Houck, Taylor, Brice, Whitlock
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I hope so. GO ROBO UMPS!
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If we went by selected sample sizes, we'd have dumped JBJ long ago.
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I don't disagree, and I'm usually very bid on defense "up the middle," but our defense sucks. It would help having Arroyo over Chavis, but I still think Chavis brings more total value- same way Bogey does at SS, depsite his less than average defense at SS. Maybe I'm blinded by the HR power by Chavis: 31 HRs in 471 AB in 2017 (37 2B+3B) 9 HRs in 171 ABs in 2018 (14 2B+3B) 7 HRs in 70 ABs in 2019 AAA 18 HRs in 347 ABs in 2019 MLB (11 2B+3B) That's 65 HRs in 1059 ABs prior to 2020. OPS: .910 in 2017 .919 in 2018 .766 in 2019 (.943 in AAA)
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SP: Odorizzi SP: Kluber RP: Hand 2B/OF: E Hernandez 4thOF: Marisnik Trade Beni for RP Lopez
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Neither has a big enough sample size to use WAR. Arroyo is a better fielder. To me, Chavis has a much better bat, despite the K's (hole in his swing). It's a close call, to me. Arroyo over Chavis- fine. We'll probably have a better choice by opening day, anyway.
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This is like the union steward joining management during a labor dispute.
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They can but haven't been, yet. I don't see us getting another ace this winter, so until we do, I'm thinking we can't win it all without Sale being healthy and near top form. Ask me, later, after we've made half a dozen meaningful moves. -
I'm not into the L-R-L thing as much as some, but if all things are close to even, then yes. I'm also not big on using someone's slot history as a big determining factor. Beni is a singles hitter. I like our best hitter up #2. Your line-up was fine. I'm not a big Chavis fan, but to me, he's better than Arroyo- overall.
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Yes, but they had Betts, Price, Moreland, Kimbrel... Unless we make some radical additions, we need Sale more than we did in 2018. (BTW, Sale helped "set the tone" for greatness in 2018.)
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Unless we make some radical additions, I can't see us winning in the next few years without a healthy Sale. I trust Sox brass knowing that.
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Makes sense, assuming we acquire 2 OF'ers after the deal is made.
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I think the plan is to try and improve for 2021 with an eye towards 2022 and beyond. These two priorities need not be conflicting in many decisions. Hopefully, we get good enough to make a run at the playoffs. If it looks like we might be in the hunt, we may be buyers at the deadline. If not, we may try and move all free agents to be- like Barnes & ERod amd maybe even some who may become FAs after 2022: Vaz, JD & Eovaldi.
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The early metrics were not all that bad on Chavis, although the sample sizes were small and scattered. He had a 0.0 UZR/150 in 2019 and has a career -1 DRS at 2B. Nobody is saying he is great or even good, on defense, but he surprised me by not looking all that bad. Arroyo had 193 innings at 2B at the ML level and has a +2 DRS and career +7.7 UZR/150.
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It's not a prediction. Someone asked what the lineup would be tomorrow. As of now, Beni is here.
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We've given up on D. Hopefully, we add some top defenders, but as of now, only Verdugo looks like a sure plus.
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None of this should make a difference: he should only start when good & ready.
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Maybe we just need to reset our clocks and start thinking of Hot Stove as being January and February not December and early January.
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Nothing too enlightening... Report: Red Sox preparing to make 'a series of moves'
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Eovaldi Benintendi LF Verdugo CF Xander SS Devers 3B JD DH Dalbec 1B Renfroe RF Vazquez C Chavis 2B
