moonslav59

EHern has pretty good defensive numbers in CF. I'm thinking he's even be better than Pillar. If you look at the list of available 2Bmen (via trade), I think we can make it work.

It looks like Miller is signing for about what Marwin is getting. I don't like Marwin at 2B, either. He's not a CF'er, either. It's nice to have versatile utility players, but we keep adding players that don't address our biggest need: 2B or CF (wherever EHern is not playing.) Maybe, Bloom has a deal in the works. If we add a nice 2Bman (or CF'er), then the rest of the moves make more sense. (It also means Chavis starts in AAA- not such a bad thing.)

You mean CF or 2B. We have 26 left fielders.

Our roster is bad enough to keep both on the 26.

He's also acquired some players with high ceilings- like Codero, and beefed up the farm, more with quantity than quality, except for Downs. He's also added Verdugo, who many instantly think of as not as good as Betts, but the guy is very good and has many years of team control left. Our ML foundation is stronger. Our farm is stronger and should jump higher, after this draft. We have a bunch of short term role players biding time and maybe going on to extend or resign for a longer stint. I'm not going to lie. I expected us to pick up at least a couple players for the longer term that look better than Cordero, German, Winckowski, Whitlock. this winter. It looks like we punted, but it was a good punt- not a shank.

...and how could they afford Miggy, Verlander & Scherzer?

YES! Flexible is the right word to use. Nothing we did, this winter, ties us down long term.

I think we have a good chance to make the playoffs. My point is about many of the players we have added will not be part of the long term plan or the next team to win it all. Many are bridge players. We are waiting to find out more about Downs, Duran, Casas, Mata and a few others. We are waiting for the right time to spend big- hopefully next winter. We are waiting for Sale and ERod to show they can still pitch after major health concerns. We are going to have to decide on players with short term team control- extend them, wait it out or trade them. If we are not in the playoff hunt, and perhaps even if we are, we have to think about trading next winter's free agents (unless we extend some): ERod Ottavino Barnes Gonzalez Options for 2022 players: Garrett Vazquez Perez Andriese The free agents after 2022 are tougher calls: extend, trade or wait a while longer to decide... Bogaerts (opt out) JD Eovaldi EHern Plawecki (All the option players above that were given their 2022 options) These are the big choices. This winter, we had limited financial resources and too many holes to fill to think we were going to go all out or even sign 1-2 big name players in a rather weak at the top FA market. We added: Garrett 1-2 yrs Ottavino 1 yr EHern 2 Perez 1-2 (brought back) Renfroe (3 arbs) Gonzalez 1 Sawamuro 2 Andriese 1-2 Cordero (3 arbs) German Whitlock (rule 5) Winckowski +3 PTBNLs Last year, after the Betts> Verdugo, Downs, Wong trade and the draft, we added: Seabold Rosario Potts Wallace That's a massive turnover in a short time, and we still have a hole in CF and the bottom 5-6 slots on our 40 man roster. I'm actually more optimistic than many here, but more about the extended future than 2021.

Deep in mediocrity, wings and prayers.

Can I have what you're smoking?

Yes, I wish we had Mazza, Weber and Bozo the clown starting for us as we watched Betts being intentionally walked, all year. That would have been fun.

These deals weren't meant to get us to the top. They are all short term deals to bide time while our farm gets stronger and deeper. We may be able to deal a few of them at the deadline, of if everything gels, we make the playoffs and have some excitement as we do it allover again, next winter- hopefully with a better idea of what we have on the farm, and a lot more money to spend to the top after the cliff. Bloom has added a lot of farm pieces, a few high ceiling gambles, and some decent players that have options for 2022 and EHern signed for a whopping 2 years. If the plan is to go over the tax line, next winter- maybe by $19M, our options and choices will be way different from this winter's bridge signings. This is about being somewhat respectable, this year, while not damaging our long term outlook and even enhancing it. Some of the crap may stick, and we bring em back. Some will be gone. We'll be much better in 2022.

These are short term bridge signings to help us look near respectable as we punt the major decisions to next winter. Don't read too much into minor deals.

Because he's so muscle bound?

I considered all the current Padres position players for whom there’s a decent sample of 2017 Statcast information available. The player with the fastest average sprint speed? It’s not Manuel Margot. It’s Franchy Cordero. And, the player with the fastest average exit velocity? It’s not Wil Myers. It’s Franchy Cordero. A few days ago, I knew next to nothing about Cordero’s skillset. I knew only of his existence. Now I realize he’s one of the more exciting young players around. Last season, there were 450 players with reliable recorded sprint speeds, and at least 30 batted balls. By speed, Cordero finished in seventh place, and I mean seventh place overall, in baseball, sandwiched between Delino DeShields and Keon Broxton. And then, by exit velocity, Cordero finished in 35th place, sandwiched between Greg Bird and Yulieski Gurriel. This is how I originally came across him — I noticed his name high on both lists, which I certainly didn’t expect. And in order to give you a frame of reference, here are all of those 450 players, with Cordero highlighted in yellow, over toward the upper right. Statcast tracked 49 Cordero batted balls in the majors, and he hit ten of them at least 105 miles per hour, for a rate of 20.4%. There were more than 400 players with at least 50 tracked batted balls, and here’s the entire list of batters with a higher such rate than Cordero had in his cup of coffee. Aaron Judge Giancarlo Stanton Miguel Sano Nelson Cruz Gary Sanchez Joey Gallo The proper interpretation is not that Franchy Cordero has Stanton-level pop. It’s just that he does hit the ball hard — very hard — and you don’t often observe that skill among burners... He also flashed impressive center-field defense, which might simply follow from how quickly he moves around. Observers have pointed out that Cordero’s outfield defense can still look a little raw and unpolished, but it’s important to consider that he entered the Padres’ system as an infielder, and he only started playing in the outfield in 2015, and in center field in 2016. Cordero is a positional convert. Having long been a shortstop before, we can tell he has the arm and the footspeed to make it all work. The early big-league results were encouraging. Franchy Cordero: a young center fielder with tremendous speed, A-grade strength, and a developing tendency to hit the ball in the air or on a line. Given a full season, right now, Cordero might strike out 200 times, but his approach could also take a step forward, and the suite of skills establishes a fairly high floor. When you can homer and play center field, you don’t need to do much else to be good. I don’t know why it feels like Cordero has mostly been ignored to this point, but of everybody in the Padres’ system at this writing, there’s no other player I’m more amped to watch.

Are these career threatening injuries? Does injury prone mean he's going to break an ankle, next? I'm not trying to yank your chain, here, but I'm not sure a few unrelated injuries means he's bound to get hurt, this year. (He did play in the fall league after 2020.)

It would be nice to see a major step up from him, but wedon't need him to be great anymore than we needed Beni to bounce back. I actually think Cordero's ceiling is higher than Beni's, but his floor is probably much lower, although Beni looked pretty low,last year. He may just be a platoon player like Beni was likely to be, and he has 3 years of control to two from Beni.

Careful with the word "always." He was hurt in 2018 and 2019. He played 34 games in 2020- way more than Beni's 14. Let's give him a chance. He does need to pass the physical for the trade to be completed.

I've never been high on Chavis, but I hate letting guys like him stick around on the 40 man roster always wondering "Is he for real?" In our current situation, I'd like to see him get a somewhat long look, this year, so we can decide once and for all to DFA or keep him. My guess is, he will be gone after a long look, but why not give him one more extended look? Is Arroyo or Gonzalez players you just have to play everyday?

2015: 126 games (524 PAs) minors 2016: 137 games (602 PAs) minors 2017: 123 games (528) FgW, minors & majors 2018: 97 games (396) FgW, minors & majors 2019: 40 games (296) FgW, minors & majors 2020: 43 games (157) FgW & majors (60 game MLB season) Certainly not great, but not as bad as I thought after hearing all the banter.

Without any more additions, this could be our 4 player bench: Plawecki Arroyo Gonzalez Chavis Our CF options are still lacking. EHern is probably the best defensively, but Gonzalez is not great at 2B, so I'm kinda scratching my head. I still think we have one more addition to make, and Chavis starts in AAA. Best defense at 4 positions: 2B: Arroyo LF: Cordero/Renfroe CF: EHern RF: Verdugo 2nd Best? 2B: EHern LF: Cordero/Gonzalez CF: Verdugo RF: Renfroe/Gonzalez

Opening Day Roster 1. Cordero LF 2. Bogaerts SS 3. Devers 3B 4. Verdugo CF 5. JD DH 6. Renfroe RF 7. Dalbec 1B 8. Vazquez C 9. Hernandez 2B Bench: Plawecki, Arroyo, M Gonzalez, [Chavis or sign CF or 2Bman] SP1 ERod SP2 Eovaldi SP3 Richards SP4 Perez SP5 Pivetta RP1 Ottavino RP2 Barnes RP3 Brasier RP4 Hernandez RP6 Sawamura RP7 Andriese RP8 Brice/Whitlock IL: Sale AAA: Chavis, Arauz, Duran, Munoz, Downs, Gettys, Puello, Ockimey Houck, Mata, Seabold, Mazza, Weber, Gossett, Hart Taylor, Valdez, Brewer, Bazardo, Walden, Gonsalves, Springs, Feltman

$3M/1 with $1M in incentives. Seems a little high. I think I might have rather had Marisnick at half that cost or Schoop at $4.5M. That being said, here are Marwin's career innings at each position: 2252 SS 1601 OF (mostly LF- only 3 in CF) 1481 1B 1037 3B 846 2B UZR/150 by position +0.5 1B -2.5 RF -2.7 3B -4.5 2B -6.8 SS +13.2 LF +8.4 OF We still don't have a CF'er better than EHern. Is Marwin going to see the most time at 2B? BTW, Marwin's splits are nearly equal .732 v RHP (better OBP) .724 v LHP (barely better SLG)

Maybe our biggest hope for a blue chip is with our next draft.

He was likely to get more PAs than Beni for us, in 2021. You know, the "FT'er" we just traded away.