moonslav59

I've showed jacko these graphs countless times, and he has never responded to these facts.

My point was about his velocity being about the same as 2021-2017, a time period where he was extremely successful. He doesn't have to be at 2018 velocity to be a stud pitcher. His 2019 velocity was nearly identical to his average velocity from 2012-2016 and just 1 below 2017. I'm not sure why you think the 2018 playoffs were "the kicker." Usually, when pitchers just come back from being out, their velocity is low for a short sample size. Look, I have never argued he wasn't hurt.In fact, I have argued he signed a discount deal precisely because bot sides knew he was hurt and the risk was there for further injury or diminished productivity. I have said the Sox "rolled the dice." My point is that your repeated claims of diminished velocity have never addressed the facts about Sale's career velocity and the seasons before he spiked in 2018. You keep acting like 2018 is his "norm," when it was actually far from it. If Sale could be extremely effective at 92-93 before 2018, and he was at 93.2 in 2019, how can you say pitching at 92-93 going forward means he's toast? Now, if he comes back at 90-91, you'll have a point, but pitchers with his surgery often come back with about the same velo the had before. Please explain why you you think he needs to be at peak velocity to be effective again, when he was at 92-93 most of his career.

Munoz would need to be added to the 40 man roster- no biggie, as our 40th man is not all that promising, but the idea is to keep as many options on the table in April. Arroyo probably makes the 26 man roster, anyway. There's room for him & Chavis. Maybe you meant Arauz. soxprospects.com has Sale, Brasier and Cordero listed as "inactive". (IL or C-19) and Marwin starting in LF. They have 14 pitchers, including Brice & Brewer (not Valdez). The 3 bench players listed are Plawecki, Arroyo and Chavis, with Duran, Arauz, Munoz, Downs and Houck starting at the Alternative Training Site. It's interesting they also show Chavis in AAA, which begins in May. To me, an argument could be made to go with 12 pitchers, but I won't go there. Let's assume it's between 13 and 14 pitchers and 3 or 4 bench players. I see it coming down to this: Pitchers (13 or 14): Brice as #13 (not my choice), if we go with just 13 pitchers. Valdez, Brewer or Houck as #14, if we go with 14 pitchers. (It looks like Houck is not a choice, but one can argue he should be.) Bench (3 or 4): Plawecki is a lock, so the choices are then 2 or 3 from: Arroyo (I think he's a lock.) Chavis (based on showing some MLB success and a hot spring, one can argue he deserves it) Duran (If Cordero looks to be out a while, he might be the best choice) Arauz (Hot spring not enough. He's young and needs more seasoning and proof he belongs.) Munoz (He might be the best choice, since he can play OF, too, but he's not on the 40 man.) Downs (I don't see it.) Personally, I'd DFA or trade Brice and go with Valdez or Brewer as the 13th pitcher, and have my bench start out with Plawecki, Arroyo, Chavis and Duran, since AAA does not start until May, and Cordero is out. The real choice gets made when Cordero comes back. I'd send Duran down, but Chavis could be the choice to be demoted. If Cordero starts the season on the big club, Marwin and Arroyo fill the 2 slots on the bench next to Plawecki, and it comes down to Brewer or Valdez as the 14th pitcher or Chavis/Duran/Arauz as the 4th bench guy.

Not really arbitrary. It's about when Henry took control of the Sox. It's a significant marker. It was the beginning of a new era. Also, while Steinbrenner remained in control of the Yankees for the first few years of the 2000's, when he passed control of the team off and then died shortly afterwards, that marked the end of an era for the Yanks. While the two era dates are not exactly lined up, nobody can deny the changes each brought to the two teams. The score is actually 4-1, if you go by Henry teams vs post George teams, although the total years are different. I don't blame you for pointing out the date I chose. You only have to go back to 1996 to take a 5-4 lead.

21st Century Scoreboard, my friend.

You keep saying his velo dropped, despite all the charts I kept posting. It barely dropped at all and was about where it was for most of his career, but keep believing what the facts don't show.

What makes you think he had no physicals, or that they had no idea about his health status. The reason he signed for less than Scherzer was his health. It was known on both sides, and we rolled the dice. BTW, the jury is still out.

Kimmi doesn't hide. We were 20 back at points in 2019 and 2020. Nobody hid.

I think the numbers posted were before his day was over.

Had we let Sale walk, and he went on to have healthy and productive seasons, we'd have never heard the end of it.

It's the 2 days off in the first 9 days and the following 4-5 games played afterwards brings the high need time to about 14 days into the season. For years, teams have gotten by with 11-12 pitchers. 13 seemed like overkill. Since you can't bring guys in for 1 batter, anymore, I doubt we'll need 14 pitchers. We also have a few guys who can go 2+ innings: DHern, Andriese, Sawamura and at times, Taylor, Valdez and Brice. If someone gets hurt, bring up Houck or or someone else. We have some issues with our non pitchers. 1) Our defense sucks in some areas and could benefit from late inning defensive replacements or switches. 2) We have some weak hitters vs certain handed pitchers, and having the ability to PH several times in a game could be worth more than keeping Valdez in the pen. 3) I've never been a big fan of Chavis, but he seems like he deserves a chance to prove himself once and for all. He's been hot, so let it ride.

Good to see Bogey get a dinger and JD 2 hits, including a dbl. Kike got 3 hits.

I realize he's a big "if." The guy has some nasty stuff, but many pitchers with that label have failed. I get it. He's just 28 (meat of prime). He has a career 9.6 K/9 rate, and if he can bring his BB/9 rate of 3.4 and HR/9 rate of 1.6 down a notch, just maybe... His sample size from 2019-2020 in not even 110 IP, which of course could have been more had he not sucked, but I'm still hopeful.

The point is, most the $40M we spent this year goes away after 2021, but many of the holes the 8 guys we added will not be holes in 2022, because we can expect some help from a certain percent of players like Duran, Downs, Seabold, Pivetta, Dalbec, Casas and other players acquired with 2+ years of team control (kiki with 2 and others with options). We spend large next winter and it has more impact.

An outside surprise could come from Chavis playing LF and raking. Look, I know my use of the word "could" involves some stretches, but we do have multiple choices to put together a decent OF. Jacko mentions 0-1 good seasons by Renfroe & Cordero as proof our OF sucks, but when has that been the criteria? Clint Frazier has yet to have 250+ PAs in the bigs, but is being counted on by Jacko to do well. Aaron Hicks had 2 good years back in '17 and '18, and that makes him oh-so-special. An optimistic view of the Sox OF: Verdugo: 2 seasons over .800 and .827 in his last 598 PAs (age 24) Renfroe (29): has had one season over .800 and 2 other decent seasons (.778 and .751). Long stretch -17 to 19 of hitting .777 in 1414 PAs. Kike (29): meets Jacko's criteria of having 2 good seasons (.836 in 2015 & .806 in 2018). He's hit .742 from 2015-2019, which is not bad for a CF'er. He's a plus on defense at CF. Cordero (just 22 for God's sake) and has hit .754 in the last 3 years (216 PAs) and .925 in AAA over 517 PAs Marwin (32) had the one big trash can year (.907) but was not all that bad from 2018-2019 (.734). Chavis, Munoz & Duran are the big unknowns, but they all add some hopes.

Post of the morning.

I actually like Pivetta and rank him above Perez as our 4th starter before Sale returns. I do think Houck and Seabold can pass him, this year, but it is no given.

Exactly.

Money paid to players no longer on the Sox (lux tax): $16M x 2 Price $13.8 x 1 Pedey $2.8M x 1 Beni We get $1.8M from the Yanks for Ottavino Total: about $31M for 2021 but down to $16M for 2022 and zero for 2023.

With Kike in CF, Verdug in RF and Renfore/Cordero in LF, the OF is a slight plus on defense but not on offense. With Cordero playing well and often (not likely) our OF could be average or better on offense but not defense. Cordero has huge upside, and you know it. I never said it will be plus- just "could."

We have re-set several times before, sometimes for 2 years in a row, so what makes you think this time is different? I truly believe we will go over the tax line by a significant amount next winter or the one after. Henry and Bloom are waiting until the foundation is ready for a serious competitive team to spend large and long again. We spent a lot, this winter, but not large on any one player and not long on anyone. That, to me, was an excellent strategy considering where this team was at the end of 2020. $10M x 1 Richards $8.9M x 1 Ottavino (German) $7.0M x 2 Hernandez $5.0M x 1 Perez $3.1M x 1 Renfroe $3.0M x 1 Gonzalez $2.1M x 1 Andriese $1.5M x 2 Sawamura That's over $40M spent on additional 2021 contracts. (We lost JBJ & Beni.) We had a lot of holes to fill, this winter, and not just on the 26 man roster. We weren't 1-2 big time players away from being strong contenders. Had we signed Bauer and Springer and left 6+ holes open, we'd be no better off than we are, now. Bloom has remade the 40 man roster that was horrific from the 30-40 slots, last year. We now have depth and promising young players at our most high need areas: P: Houck, Seabold, Mata (IL), DHern, Ward, Song, Groome, Bello and more 2B: Downs CF: Duran Casas is not really filling a big hole, for now, but when JD leaves, we'll have Devers, Dalbec & Casas to play 1B, 3B & DH. We also have Jimenez, who I rank above Duran, and J Rosario as OF hopes. Rolando Hernandez and Wong as catchers of the future. Potts & Arauz as IF infusions. Look at all the players Bloom has added and not just the ones we've lost (Betts, JBJ, Beni- maybe Price & Moreland- are the only ones that are still promising future production): Verdugo Kike Hernandez Richards Ottavino Renfroe Pivetta Perez Andriese Cordero Sawamura Seabold Marwin G Arroyo Valdez Arauz Plawecki R Hernandez Wong Whitlock Even more significant are the non 40 man roster additions: Downs Santana Munoz Gossett Puello Potts Rosario C Hermann J Wallace German Winckowski Politi Koss plus a bunch of PTBNL from KC and NYM (Beni trade) Draftees: Yorke Jordan Drohan add 2021 picks

Could Houck be "that guy?" Maybe Seabold? How about someone who is not a surprise young guys but rather Pivetta or just one of our injury prone starters actually giving us 180 IP (like Eovaldi or Richards)?

This is so true. Even in 2019, many blamed the pen, when the starters were clearly at fault for the vast majority of our losses. I actually presented a game by game analysis that showed the starters lost way more games for us than the pen, and that didn'y even factor in the fact that starters not going even 3-4 innings taxes the pen beyond reasonability.

Agreed, and fangraphs places both the rotation and pen about average of slightly better than average. Our defense is weak, but I assume that is part ofr our pitcher's projected numbers. Our offense is top 5 or 6, although fangraphs rates our batting at 11th or 12th.

"Market rate" includes health concerns. What would ERod have gotten as a FA, this winter. If GMs listened to you and your armchair prognosis, he'd get way less than he would have pre-COVID.