moonslav59

I, too have spoken of DFA'ing Wilson, while also suggesting we call him up. I have felt like Duran is the better prospects, because I believed the rankings and hype. He may very well be better and have a higher ceiling, but it seems like Wilson is more "ML ready" as of right now, and the numbers do not indicate Duran is the better choice, right now. I've also advocated cutting Santana loose, but that goes against my give players a long enough sample size before making any definitive judgments or decisions. It's hard to watch player struggle and struggle, and it's natural to think maybe someone on the farm can come up and solve the problem overnight. It's also hard to know how the player you demote or DFA would have done had they not been moved. Would Cordero have done something close to what he did in AAA after being demoted had he stayed in the bigs? Where would we be now, if we had benched or demoted Renfroe after his very slow start? .485 in his first 68 PAs (Santana's sample size is 49 PAs, right now.) .610 after his first 148 PAs (Dalbec was at .650 after 149 PAs, and people were screaming for his demotion- or worse.) Arroyo was at .672 as late as May 29th (83 PAs). We might have 2-3 more losses had we benched or demoted him. He's hit .974 in his last 9 games (10 rbi) and now is sitting at .765. That's the 5th best OPS on the team! We are all a bit guilty of letting frustration influence our opinions. I'm glad our GM and manager aren't so affected. This isn't saying we should ignore long slumps, but it's hard to know when enough is enough. For example, Marwin is 8th on the team in PAs at 197. Is that a large enough sample size for a career .720 hitter who had his numbers greatly improved by that trash can year? He has a .693 OPS in his last 1411 PAs, .586 his last 396 PAs and .566, this year in 197 PAs. His defense and ability to play several positions makes him worthy enough not to be demoted, but his PAs don't seem to be limited much at all. We hear "Demote Dalbec!" and "Cut Santana," but we hardly hear a peep about Marwin (.566) or even Vaz (.660).

You have exposed the bias some have towards Duran. His speed is an asset that Wilson cannot match, but to me, Wilson is clearly more ML ready and has done about as well as Duran has on offense over the last 2-4 seasons. The defense is not even close to being debatable.

Brandon- we hardly knew you.

I don't equate college ball with low minor play, but they both were at the same levels at about the same ages. If you start with 2018, Duran's first year in the minors, he has played in 222 games and got 990 PAs. Since 2018, Wilson played in 262 games and got 1084 PAs. That is pretty close to Duran, but then factor in how many games were played in the OF, and Wilson is light years ahead in being "ML Ready" on defense, and it shows. OF Games since 2018: 262 Wilson (257 games in OF before 2018) 163 Duran (25 games in OF while in college)

Not even notin!

Great news: Bogey's back. Not so great news: Devers sitting after scorching the ball over the last week-several for outs, Kike still leading off and Santana at 1B. 1. Kike CF 2. Dugo LF 3. JD DH 4. Bogey SS 5. Renfroe RF 6. Arroyo 2B 7. Dalbec 3B 8. Plawecki C 9. Santana 1B (Plawecki has been hitting better than Vaz, so maybe we get a plus, there.)

Best realistic expectation? He comes back in mid to late July. He struggles for a few games-maybe 1-2 in relief. He does okay in mid to late August, but may have a bad outing here and there. By the end of September, he's at about 85-90% of his former self but only going 5 innings of 75-80 pitches. If we make the playoffs, he is our ace, again, but he can only give us 80-90 pitches per start. That's probably best case scenario, yet still realistic.

Starter ERA... 10.72 last 5 starts 2.83 previous 5 starts 4.00 previous 5 starts 5.33 previous 5 starts 4.88 previous 5 starts 4.08 previous 5 starts 3.95 previous 5 5.33 before that 2.36 before that 4.08 before that 6.12 before that (including doubleheader) 2.66 before that (other doubleheader included) 4.18 before that 4.67 in their first 4 starts of the season It seems like 4 of their last 5 sets of starts have not been very good.

We've seen whole teams go into batting slumps, including the Sox, so I guess this should not be all that surprising, especially when you consider all but ERod were pitching above winter/spring expectations. Our starters' last 3 starts: In reverse order... IP ER Pivetta 5.74 in 15.2IP (24 H+BB+HBP) .306 BAbip 5.0 6 4.2 2 6.0 2 Richards 4.96 in 16.1 IP (31 H+BB+HBP) .423 BAbip 5.1 4 5.0 3 6.0 2 ERod 9.20 (24 H+BB+HBP) .375 BAbip 4.2 6 5.1 3 4.2 6 Eovaldi 3.18 in 17 IP (27 H+BB+HBP) .404 BAbip 5.2 5 6.0 1 5.1 0 Perez 4.91 in 14.2 IP (22 H+BB+HBP) .319 BAbip 2.0 6 7.2 0 5.0 2 The reason I said it might be a blip, is that if you take away just the last start from these 5, the numbers look much MUCH better in their previous 2 starts for all but 1 of the 5 (ERod). Pervious 2 starts: 10.2 IP 4 ER Pivetta 3.37 ERA 11.0 IP 5 ER Richards 4.09 ERA 10.0 IP 9 ER ERod 8.10 ERA 11.1 IP 1 ER Eovaldi 0.79 ERA 12.2 IP 2 ER Perez 1.42 ERA

I was allover Taillon, this winter- in a good way. Shows what I know!

Speaking of HBPs... Maybe I'm misremembering things, but didn't Dalbec and Arroyo both get plunked the next AB after their recent HRs? Did we do anything about that?

Duran will be rule 5, this winter, so we will be adding him, at some point, anyway, so I'm not sure if that is a big factor. Who we might DFA to make room might be a factor. We could DFA Santana and watch him repeat that great year he had recently, somewhere else. We could DFA Workman, Andriese or Brennan and shorten our pitching choices. We could DFA Wilson and further shorten our organizational lack of OF depth. I'd say Chavis, Wilson and even Cordero are ahead of Duran on my call-up list, and that's assuming Bloom & Co. deem Duran ML ready.

He also has way more experience on the farm (2200 PAs to 900). If it's about being "ML ready" one might think Wislon is more so- at the plate and in the field.

Really? No. Wilson's best years on the farm: 1.016 A+ 2019 (167 PAs) This was his last season before '21. .956 AAA 2021 (137 PAs) This year .878 Fall '19 (34 PAs) That's three sample in a row- all most recently. .829 A '17 (445 PAs- a significant sample size) (His combined level 2019 OPS was .850 in 445 PAs, too.) .763 Career in 2218 PAs on the farm Duran .998 A+ '19 (226 PAs) 1.140 Fall '20 (30 PAs) .941 A- '18 (168 PAs) .929 AAA (110 PAs) in 2021 .872 A (134 PAs) in '18 .834 career in 898 PAs Both are about the same age, started at about the same age and progressed through the minors at about the same pace. Here are their combined season numbers since 2018: Wilson .829 in 2017 (A) 445 PAs at age 20 .678 in 2018 (A+) 502 PAs .850 in 2019 (A+ to AA) 445 PAs .878 in 2019 (FgW) 34PAs .956 in 2021 (AAA) 137 PAs Duran .765 in 2017 (smr) 137 PAs at age 20 .910 in 2018 (A- to A) 302 PAs .775 in 2019 (A+ to AA) 578 PAs .808 in 2020 (FgW) 100 PAs .929 in 2021 (AAA) 110 PAs Sure, Duran looks a little better at a few more levels, but it's not like Wilson's 2021 season look all out of whack.

I've always been one to not try and make definitive judgments based on sample sizes as small as even one or two months, but your example shows just how inconsistent some posters are who do use smaller sample sizes to guide their opinions and suggested moves.

Depends on on how highly they value Potts. Besides, he turns 23 in a few months, and I thought you didn't think getting an extra year at age 29 or 30 was all that valuable.

If all this is true, then other GMs will not think too highly of Duran, either and not give us much in return. I'm not saying I disagree with your point. I must have traded Duran 30 times on the BTV site, this past winter. The one thing I will add is that no way I trade him for any 2 or 3 month rental- even Scherzer.

Best Records in MLB 41-24 TBR 40-24 CWS 40-24 SFG 38-25 LAD 39-26 BOS 39-27 OAK 37-27 Cubs 37-27 MIL 32-24 NYM 36-28 HOU 37-29 SDP 34-27 CLE Best Records 2020 + 2021 81-42 LAD 81-44 TBR 75-49 CWS 75-51 OAK 74-56 SDP 71-53 Cubs 69-52 CLE

Best Records in MLB 41-24 TBR 40-24 CWS 40-24 SFG 38-25 LAD 39-26 BOS 39-27 OAK 37-27 Cubs 37-27 MIL 32-24 NYM 36-28 HOU 37-29 SDP 34-27 CLE

Let's assume the top 6 on this list are replaced by this winter's Rule 5 protectees: Jarren Duran Jeter Downs Gilberto Jimenez Josh Winckowski Brayan Bello Thaddeus Ward (Maybe Kaleb Ort, Tyreque Reed and or Frank German) Then, we re-sign or replace the free agents-to-be: SP ERod RP Barnes RP Ottavino UT Marwin Maybe JD Martinez (opt out?) For argument's sake, let's say JD & Barnes stay and we fill the other two slots with two big signings- something like two from... SP Syndergaard, Kershaw, Scherzer, Verlander, Greinke, L Lynn, Gausman, ERod RP Kenley Jansen, T Rosenthal 1B Anthony Rizzo or Freddie Freeman OF Michael Conforto, Tommy Pham, Starling Marte, Ottavino I doubt we sign one of the big SSs (Baez, Correa, Seager, Story, ASimmons)

I feel real bad for Sevy.

We went from 4 decent starters and ERod to ERod now being decent and the others looking like crap in their last 1-2 starts. I hope this is just a blip, or we could be out of it by the deadline. Our pen cannot carry our starters for all that long. Our bats can pull games out of our asses much longer, either.

I kinda liked Arauz, but I thought he was a decent fielder. I'm not thinking that, right now. Plus, he's at .639 in AAA, now, so maybe he moves up on my list.

They also likely lost any hope of getting Sevy back, this year.

We do also have the option of 60 day IL'ing Potts, but here's my current DFA-trade list: 1. Santana 2. Workman 3. Wilson 4. Brennan The following could probably be traded not DFA'd 5. Chavis 6. Arauz 7. Andriese Certainly traded not DFA'd: 8. Potts 9. Wong 10. Cordero/Groome