moonslav59

Ain't that the truth!

Renfroe gone hunting.

Devers forevers! Lock him up! Long term.

Speaking of old starters possibly available this winter, here's a partial list.. 42 Rich Hill 40 Wainwright 39 Verlander JA Happ 38 Morton Greinke Lester 37 Scherzer 36 Kluber Cueto ($22M option) Arrieta 35 L Lynn T Roark T Milone I Nova 34 Kershaw Richards ($10M option) B Anderson C Anderson A Cobb 33 Duffy Archer Paxton Pineda Harvey Smyly Quintana Cahill The best of the younger ones... 29 Syndergaard ERod D Bundy C Rodon Aaron Sanchez 30 Stroman R Ray V Velasquez Jon Gray Carlos Martinez J Urena M Wacha 31 Bauer (opt out of $62M/2 remaining) K Gausman S Matz J Teheran M Perez (team option) Kikuchi (team and player options) A Heaney J Lyles A Wood

That's what the Yanks thought, when they traded Snell.

You need to convince the wife that those early bird specials will save you a bundle over the long term.

If we go back to 14 pitchers, something like that may work out, and another idea might be to increase his pitches per game but not pitch him as often. He could end up going 2-4 innings every 4-5 days and give all our starters a bit of a rest every few starts by yanking them early on a schedule.

That and all our starters were doing very well, and our pen needed a set-up guy, badly. He's certainly on an innings or workload limit, this year, so yes, having him not be all used up by September and October might be a worthwhile choice made.

I used to do the same. I remember in college, I was one of the few who had an electric typewriter.

I think he scares jacko more as a starter.

It's not like he's been an established RP'er with a long record of success as one. It will be interesting to see if he ever does get "stretched out" like they said he was going to be or gets a spot start here or there.

Goo d f or y o u !! !

The pen may be the most likely landing spot for both, especially Houck, but unless we replace or re-sign ERod, we'll need one of these guys to start- two if someone gets hurt: Whitlock, Houck or Seabold.

When and if he comes back, this year, we can give that a try.

I'm not for spending $18M+ on a top closer. Even Kimbrel's contract bugged me due to the haul we had to give up to take that on. We will need to sign at least 2-3 decent RP'ers, if we lose Barnes & Ottavino. We don't have to go large and long, however.

You look at things like extra spaces?

My mantra has been "get the best we can for Chavis+ Groome, and call it a day."

I know you asked about 2022, but since this thread is about 2021, I started with that area, first. I did not go into the fact that we may be sellers at the deadline and how that might affect the 2022 outlook. I guess we go on the assumption we take the options on Richards, Vaz and Perez, but maybe not Andriese, who would make $3.5M, next year. Assume no on him. . I don't like to go by what we drop in salary, since arb raises can and will be substantial, this winter. Devers enters his 2nd arb year out of 3. Renfroe 3 of 4 Plawecki 4 of 4 Brasier 2 of 3 Cordero 2 of 3 and all these players first timers: Verdugo, Pivetta, Arroyo, Taylor, Brennan & Chavis I'll assume JD stays at $22M and does not opt out. Here are my numbers, including the 3 options taken (in Lux $): 25 Sale 22 JD (no opt out or renegotiation) 20 Bogey 17 Eovaldi 15 Price (edit) 10 Richards (option) 7.0 Kike 7.0 Vaz (option) 6.0 Perez (option) That's a base of $129M I'm no expert on arbs, but let's assume: $7M from $4.58M) Devers enters his 2nd arb year out of 3. $5M (from $3.1M) Renfroe 3 of 4 $2M (from $1.6M) Plawecki 4 of 4 $1.5M (from $1.25M) Brasier 2 of 3 $1.0M (from $800K)Cordero 2 of 3 $4.0M Verdugo, 1 of 3 $3.5M Pivetta, 1 of 3 $2.0M Arroyo, 1 of 3 $1.5M Taylor, 1of 4, $800K Brennan, 1of 3 $800K Chavis, 1 of 4 The arbs add about $29.5M plus $2.5M for the rest of the 40 man roster and $16M for player benefits and the total before replacing or adding anyone is: $177M If we can spend up to the first tax line (assuming it's the same $210M) we will have $33M to spend. If we can spend up to the second line, it's $53M. I'm not going to name any names except I think maybe we try to bring Barnes back. The big need areas, to me, are (with projected cost via free agency): #1-2 SP ($15-30M/yr) Losinng ERod this winter and are adding Sale in 2021. (Could add Houck/Whitlock) Closer ($10-18M) Losing Barnes (No closer in the system unless Ort turns a miracle) Set-Up ($5-10M) Losing Ottavino (no clear #2 RP'er in the system) 1B, 2B, OF ($5-20M) Losing Marwin (Duran, Casas, Downs?) RP'er ($3-7M) Losing Andriese (Bazardo/Seabold/ converted SP'er assuming all SP'er healthy) That's $38M minimum and maybe $78M maximim. I doubt we spend more than $53M, so we can't get the best at every position of need. More likely, we will plan on in system options to cover 1B, 2B and or CF and go cheap there. We might sign just 2 RP'er not 3. We may sign a #3 SP'er not a #1-2 type, which may depend on how Sale looks, this year. We have a great chance to improve upon this current roster. Barnes will be tough to extend, re-sign or replace. Ottavino is pitching to his contract value, so that should be about push. ERod looked very hard to replace before seeing him in 2021, so far. We still need to fill his slot, but right now, he's pitching like a 4 or 5 (maybe even a 6), but to improve, we need to replace him with a 1 or 2, IMO. That should be our top priority, and if we only have $33M to spend, we might spend $20M on a solid #2 or very old ace and $13M on a good but not great closer and count on our system to fill out the depth issues. It should be an interesting winter. (edited numbers and comments to reflect Price's $15M I forgot to include.)

In isolation none of the hulk acquisitions, either by trade, draft or IFA look all that bad and some are good one, but my point was putting all his eggs in a very narrow and limited basket.

That might be just enough to win a WC slot, too.

So, if you are Leiter, and you want to fall to the Sox, you demand $8M plus from the top 3 teams in the draft, then take less from the Sox, since we cant offer as much?

At 40-27, we'd have to go 41-54(.432) the rest of the way. While that falls within the reasonable range, when you look at how weak many other teams are, I don't see that happening,

He still has some fatal flaws- like acquiring muscle bound hulks that spend way too much time on the IL.

Losing Glasnow could really hurt the Rays.

Oh, I know the risk of failure is higher, but it's those 7 year deals that kill us (and others).