moonslav59

Can't agree, sorry. The words "valuable" and Marwin should not be in the same sentence. BTW, no team in MLB needs a glove only utility guy more than the Sox.

I think people are being harsh on JD and his slump. Of course, we'd all love to see the .950+ JD, again, but he's really been very consistently around .800 from May until just very recently. It's not fair to imply his slump has been since the allstar break. He was at .877 from the break to August 15th (29 games and 123 PAs). His slump is 9 games lone. .305 last 9 games, which brings his post all star numbers to .742. I'll take that .877, again, and my guess is, we'll see it soon. From June 29 to today he's at .801. It's all about when you choose the time frame. When you have a 1.189 OPS on May 1st, it's hard to keep it from declining, and as people watch it decline, they assume you are "slumping." While .770 is viewed as a slump for JD, and that is disappointing to me, it's not really bad. (14 HRs and 53 RBI in 93 games. Some perspective: the guy hit .819 from May 2nd until 9 days ago, and saw his OPS fall 285 points! (from 1.189 to .904.) Yes, his OPS was .904 a little over a week ago. I'm not saying I'm all aboard the extend JD bandwagon; I'm not. I'm just saying, let's cut the guy some slack.

God, no!

I think many posters were just preaching caution on Duran or thinking we should trust Sox management on when Duran was ready. It wasn't meant to be a put-down on him. Yes, some were critical, but most of us looked forward to his call-up and were confident he'd do well (eventually). I have not lost any confidence in him over this tiny sample size.

How Sox starters rank in fWAR: 5. Eovaldi 4.4 26. ERod 2.9 65. Pivetta 1.7 121. Perez 0.5 128. Richards 0.4 (163 Starting Pitchers with 50 + IP) Pen 15. Whitlock 1.4 20. Barnes 1.3 25. Ottavino 1.1 44. Taylor 0.8 166. D Hern -0.1 171. Andriese -0.1 175. Valdez -0.1 197. Sawamura -0.4 200. Robles -0.5 (207 pitchers with 30+ IP) Everyday Players: 12. Bogey 4.6 14. Devers 4.4 32. Kike 3.6 79. Schwarber 2.3 82. Verdugo 2.3 87. Martinez 2.2 120. Renfroe 1.7 169. Arroyo 1.2 (just 53 games) 251. Vaz 0.5 278. Plawecki 0.3 (49 games) 329. Dalbec 0.0 390. Santana -0.4 405. Marwin -0.6 415. Cordero -0.7 (430 players with 100+ PAs)

Collecting garbage for their trash cans.

Here's how I see it: The JD choice will set in motion a lot of what we can and will do. There are somethings we must do, no matter what he chooses, but the amount of money available would change depending on his $19.4M salary ($22M on lux tax) vs zero. We need a solid SP'er- hopefully a #1 or #2. We need a closer. We need starting pitcher depth and/or pen depth, depending on our plans for Whitlock & Houck. JD or not, we need another solid player that can play 1B, perhaps just vs RHP. No JD? We need a DH. That is a lot of needs that would be super expensive, if we filled them all by free agency. Here is where it gets tricky: we can either trade youth to fill a slot or two or count on filling one, maybe two, of these roles from within the system. I'm thinking Bloom & Co would love the second option to work, and they could hedge their best by signing some depth to "cover," in case an in system player fails... kinda like what Marwin and Santana were, this year- YUCK! Who are the most likely in system players to fill a key role? Dalbec has to be near the top of that list, even if just as a platoon 1Bman that can lessen the cost of needing a FT 1Bman. Houck and Whitlock look like the obvious choices to fill a SP'er slot or two or a SP'er and pen slot. Do we want to pencil one in as that solid #1 or #2 SP'er and the other as our 2022 closer? Maybe one, but both? (And I say maybe one with a lot of doubts.) I'd rather see Houck and Whitlock fill the #4 slot in the rotation and Ottavino's set-up slot. If they do better, then yeah for us! Duran does not really fill an area of need, assuming our OF is Verdugo, Kike and Renfroe, with Arroyo as our FT or near FT 2Bman. We'd need a 4th OF'er, and since Kike can play 2B when Arroyo is out or covering SS/3B or sitting as part of a Dalbec-Arroyo type platoon. We might decide to trade Duran. (I'm not for that idea- just sayin'.) So, IMO, we get a #1 or #2 SP and a closer, use Whitlock and Houck to fill the rest of our pitching high need areas and then decide on what to do about 1B/DH. Dalbec can fill a partial role and maybe improve enough to fill a FT need, but I do like the idea of keeping Schwarber- JD or not.

He was highly successful before he started "sitting upper 90's." From 2014 to the first half of 2018, Sale was "sitting on" ABOUT 93-95. 2015 & 2017 saw more above 95's, but not more than 93-95. In the middle of 2018, he started sitting on 95-97. Was he not a great pitchers with the CWS and before mid 2018 with the Sox? Why are you acting like he needs to return to peak to be great? Plus, he may very well return to peak. It might take a few starts, but he's already increasing his velo from his first start, this year. This last game looks totally in line with his whole career, except mid 2018. Look for yourself: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/chris-sale/10603/graphs?pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2014&end=2021&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

JD just turned 34. Many players already have sharply declined by 34. That being said, he doesn't have to be Nelson Cruz, who is 41, to get a decent 3-4 year deal. Cruz signed a 4 year deal for $57M at age 34. That would be a good comp for JD with inflation figured in. If you look at Nelson's numbers before that 4 year deal, they were way worse than JD's. .838 previous 4 years .801 previous 2 years

The guy has a 10 day slump, and we're talking benching him? Geesh!

This says it all. Our ideal line-up has to be: C: Vaz with Plawecki giving him plenty of rest. 1B: Dalbec vs LHPs/Schwarber vs RHPs 2B: Arroyo (maybe sits vs some LHPs as Schwarber plays OF and Kike 2B) 3B: Devers SS: Bogey (get his some extra rest by playing Arroyo at SS, when Kike is at 2B & Schwarber in the OF) LF: Verdugo (with Schwarber vs LHPs) CF: Kike (Verdugo vs some LHPs) RF: Renfroe (Maybe Schwarber when in parks with shorter RF's and a lefty pitching) DH: JD 1. Kike CF (some 2B) 2. Devers 3B 3. Bogey SS 4. Schwarber 1B/OF 5. JD DH 6. Renfroe RF 7. Verdugo LF/CF 8. Arroyo 2B v R/Dalbec 1B v L 9. Vaz

OPS Arroyo .777 Dalbec .740 Arroyo is a much better fielder, and moving Kike to CF improves our OF D and keeps JD out of the OF.

The 162 game sample given on B-R is based on 562 PAs. If you project it to 680 PAs, he's at 36 HRs and 114 RBI. 650 might be about 35 110.

Even for a 1Bman, a .783 career OPS and 24 HRs in his first 444 PAs, is very promising. (46 XBHs) I expected an OBP higher than .302, and there is still time for him to improve on that. His power is natural.

I do, too, and I've never been against trading some major farm pieces for the right players and at the right time. I could see us fill one of our major needs via trade: Solid SP'er, closer (may not be a pitcher who is a closer, now) or a 1Bman (assuming no Schwarber keep).

You sounded like there were no maybes, just a few months ago.

No quotes, but some hints. 1) Their track record shows the spend in cycles, usually after being prudent for 1-3 years. 2) They spoke of the tax line not being a rigid priority, this year, and this was a rebuild year, so with higher hopes, next year, I think they'll mean it this time. 3) If we don't win it all or get close, soon, the fans and media will get even more brutal thatn they have been, this year- a year where we have far exceeded expectation. Fans want to expect much better, next year. The new CBA may change my opinion, but I think Henry will spend much more next year. BTW, we did spend about $40M, last winter, but almost all on 1 year deals. (Kike on 2)

We probably will not get all of that, but with arb raises, Price's cost and the cost of JD, Schwarber and a solid SP'er, how much is left for a closer and other needs? We may trade for one major piece and save some FA money, but weaken the farm at the same time.

I shouldn't have started the 2022 thread.

He's 28. JD was 30 when he signed, but yes, JD's numbers were way better. .936 from 2014 to 2017 and .985 fro '16 to '17.

I'm not sure he gets 6 years. He's only had more than 510 PAs once in his career (2019). He hit .701 in the short 2020 season, and was at .849 from 2018-2019, a very good number but not top notch. He's also .849 from 2018-2021. He may try to take a 1 year deal to boost his value, but I'm thinking maybe he gets $70-75M/5. I'd probably go as high as $90M/6, but that's scary large and long.

Okay. I thought you were talking about when Arroyo is healthy.

You forgot Kike. Duran out hitting Verdugo right out of the gait was never the plan.

I am certain we are going over, but that does not mean we will spend like LAD. We need Ace or solid #2 Closer 1B Set up man- solid Pitching depth Utility I doubt we go over the second or third line, and there is talk the first line might be $180M.

We don’t know the next tax set up and I agree we can keep Schwarber & JD and add a solid SPer, but we need a closer and pitching depth, too.