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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    No, it doesn't, but pitching way more innings than other pitchers and doing pretty good for most of them does add value. The debate seems to be more about how much value is to be added?
  2. moonslav59
    Actually, no. 8 other pitchers had as many or more IP as Porcello from 2009-2020. All had fWARs over 40. Porcello was 22.6- way behind. 9th out of 9 in xFIP at 4.04 (next guy at 3.64) 9th in ERA- at 102 (next guy at 84) 9th in WHIP at 1.32 (next guy at 1.25)
  3. moonslav59
    So, we have another example of a contending team trading a key player in July. The Rays are buyers and sellers, at the same time.
  4. moonslav59
    I was actually thinking of going smaller sample, where Porcello would rank last or next to last in every category. In a sense, nobody pitched more innings than Porcello and was worse.
  5. moonslav59
    Oh, "it doesn't work that way?" You are the one doing all the assuming. You assume Duran scores from 2B on an IF hit to SS. You assume the Yanks don't score 6 in the 8th. You assume Duran doesn't make an error later in the game to give the Yanks the lead. Go ahead and think Cora is a bozo for not PR'ing Duran for Dalbec in the 7th. I think he knew what he was doing, and the results worked, precisely because Dalbec was able to hit in the 9th. There's no assumption, there. It happened.
  6. moonslav59
    You still don't get our position. Fine with disagreeing, but at least try to understand our position and stop misquoting us. If 1000 people rolled the dice 100 times, they would not get the same results. Some would have wildly different results than others- by chance or luck- not by skill. How can anyone know a certain player's numbers in a super small sample size that is often scattered over different games and seasons is just the results of dice-rolling or some skill they have or lack that caused the varying results? Nobody can prove they are right.
  7. moonslav59
    It's a pain going back and finding tid bits like this. I had to do it on 700's bashing of Pivetta.
  8. moonslav59
    How does being up 2-1 after 7, assuming Duran scores, which was not automatic, keep the Yanks from scoring 2 in the 8th? We'd still be down 3-2 with no Bobby Dee big hit in the 9th.
  9. moonslav59
    That was just before his implosion.
  10. moonslav59
    Nobody says that. We say it is not a repeatable or sustainable skill. Big difference. Of course there are clutch moments, clutch hits and pitching performances.
  11. moonslav59
    I gave the numbers for top 150 and top 300 by innings. This sample size was to compare Rick to other big inning pitchers of his time.
  12. moonslav59
    We've been through this. Do you really want me to say it again. I'm fine with you disagreeing, but why act like you don't know my reasons for saying that. Not going over, now, pushes all the tax years back one more year- step 1, step 2, step 3. Welook to be really good in 2-3 years. Let's keep the step taxes one rung down the ladder.
  13. moonslav59
    We’d be over the tax line.
  14. moonslav59
    Out of 31 not really
  15. moonslav59
    In all honesty, I'd take Rizzo over a Dalbec platoon with Cordero/Arroyo, but not by all that much. The cost of trading for Rizzo would make it a clear net minus.
  16. moonslav59
    Pivetta and Perez are a major reason we are in first place. These two were our 5th and 6th starters, going into this year. (1 Sale, 2 ERod, 3 Eovaldi, 4 Richards) We are 24-16 in their starts. That's a 60% win percentage! Our record with our 1-4 starters (counting 0-0 by Sale) is almost the same (.608).
  17. moonslav59
    The Rays continue to surprise.
  18. moonslav59
    He might be close to being "all done." I don't know. I also don't know if Dalbec is "all done." OPS since June 5th: .733 Dalbec .698 Rizzo I'm not against trading for a 1Bman or a platoon 1Bman. I'm just not all gah-gah over Rizzo. 2020-2021 .756 Rizzo (22 Hrs 59 RBI in 593 PAs) .737 Dalbec (18 HRs52 RBI in 366 PAs)
  19. moonslav59
    I'm a big Porcello fan and think he's closer to very good than mediocre. I'd say he was just plain "good." The innings pitched factor is hard to quantify, especially if you view his ERA+ or ERA-, WHIP and other stats as looking mediocre and think more innings of mediocre is valuable, but not "very good." Here's another way to look ay Porcello's numbers from 2009-2020. Let's look at just the 31 pitchers with 1500+ IP. Here's how Rick places in this group: 14th fWAR 23rd SIERA 24th xFIP 27th ERA- 27th WHIP
  20. moonslav59
    Yes. His high fWAR ranking is almost totally based on his high IP'd.
  21. moonslav59
    That's his best ranking. Other categories show him in the middle or even below average. Some better pitchers of his era did very well before 2009 or are doing well in 2021, but those stats are left out. His IP'd gives him more value than many want to give him. Innings are enormously valuable, even if mediocre or slightly above average, but many of his stats show him below average. I think he was good. I can see why people can view him as mediocre or slightly above average or even "very good."
  22. moonslav59
    I'm not getting all the love for Rizzo. I think some Sox fans remember how good he was and how he used to be our prospect and want him back. I'm not sure he's even an upgrade over Dalbec/Cordero/Arroyo/Kike/Santana/Marwin.
  23. moonslav59
    Yes, and I mentioned how he has changed from 2-3 years ago, but this is the sample size since the changes: 0.53 in 2020 (MLB but just 21 IP) 5.14 in 2021 (AAA 21 IP- same sample size as 2020 MLB one) 2.50 in 2021 (MLB in 18 IP) The AAA sample size of 2021 (5.14 ERA) is the same ip as his 2020 MLB sample size of 0.53 and more than his 2021 MLB sample size of 18 IP and 2.50 ERA. More innings are needed. Batters will learn what he is about and he may need to adjust to their adjustments. I'm very hopeful and don't want to sound pessimistic. I'm just being cautious- same as I am when things look bad.
  24. moonslav59
    I'd say between good and very good, but more good. He was elite that one season and mediocre to good all the others.
  25. moonslav59
    I'm fine with Marwin on the roster. I just don't think he should be the #2 at any position. His value is being a highly flexible last man off the bench. He was clearly Cora's favorite, and I can't blame him for liking him, especially being with him during his great Houston season. He was already seeing less playing time than when the season started, then Kike and Arroyo went on the IL at the same time. Ideally, we should have other bench players as the #2 or #3 at all positions. Marwin should be the #3 or #4 at several positions. That's his value.
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