moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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With Eovaldi and Price coming off the books, we can afford one meg long term deal (or two moderate long ones) and still be able to reset again in 2-3 years- assuming we go over in 2022.
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I think there is also a clause about someone not being offered a QO twice in his career, but I don't think JD got a QO the last time.
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All I said was that if he opts out, we'll offer him the QO and get the sandwich pick.
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I'm not sure Devers would bitch about hitting first. JD likely would. Bogey? Hmmm....
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Players sometimes get bonuses for reaching x amount of PAs or IP. Those bonuses are applied to the lux tax.
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9/04 Indians @ SOX 4:10PM
moonslav59 replied to SPLENDIDSPLINTER's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
He's only had 2 good starts out of his last 9. 5.91 ERA since July 5th. (.780 OPS against was fed mostly by the 22 BB/HBP in 43 IP, but the 8 HRs didn't help either.) -
Yes, I know they count performance bonuses against the lux tax, so why not take out option money, if a player is given the option?
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If he turns down $19.4M, why not offer him the $19M QO? We get a sandwich pick, if he declines. I can't see JD declining the $19.4M option only to take the $19M or $19.2M QO.
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ERod is a FA- Vaz is not. I'm fine with bringing ERod back as the #3/4 but not as the #1/2 we need. I can't see having Casas and Dalbec on the 26 man roster for too long. Dalbec will not get much time at 3B, and Casas & Dalbec both need to play nearly everyday to improve and to prove themselves. I think one gets traded, unless we feel one can DH once JD leaves, but where does that leave the whole Schwarber at DH at?
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Our pitchers by age: 19: Wilkelman Gonzalez 22: Bryan Mata, Jay Groome, Brayan Bello 23: Chris Murphy, Josh Winckowski 24: DHern, Noah Song, Thaddeus Ward, Branden Walter 25: Houck, Whitlock, Seabold, Bazardo, Kutter Crawford 26: Gonsalves 27: Schreiber, Hartlieb 28: Rios, ERod (FA), Taylor, Pivetta, A Davis 29: Valdez 30: Perez (option), Robles (FA) 31: Barnes, Eovaldi 32: Sale 33: Richards (option), Sawamura, Peacock (FA), Brasier 35: Ottavino (FA)
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If he opts out, he will be given the QO, so he'll have more time on deciding to stay or go. One reason he may not want to opt out and say no to the QO is the penalties teams get by signing QO FAs. That might hurt his value on the market.
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If Schwarber does not want to DH, he may prefer an NL team, assuming it starts looking like they will not have the DH.
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Agreed, and I don't think they go back and subtract $1.5M from 2021, if Richards is given his option, so maybe he will only cost $8.5, next season as we pay him $10M
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It's not about him just being worth more or less than the $19M in 2022; it's about longer term security and how he feels about his chances of scoring a bigger or better contract after 2022. Sure, nobody is going to pay him $19M x 4 or even $19M x 3, but he may think $56M/4 looks better than $19M/1 plus whatever he gets after 2022. It's not really a "no brainer" for him, but I doo think he does not opt out. I think he is a very confident man in his abilities and feels he will have a big 2022 season and have a high value on that winter market. On the other hand, if he realizes he has slowed, maybe he goes for the biggest long term deal he can get, this winter, and he opts out and turns down the QO.
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The buy out is $1.5M, so really, it amounts to $8.5M. What I don't get is this: the $1.5M buyout counted against our 2021 lux tax cost, because it was guaranteed money, so does that mean if we give him the $10M in 2022, it only counts as $8.5M on the 2022 lux tax? It should, otherwise we get billed twice.
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I'm loving what Richards is doing and quite frankly was and still am shocked. We need some context, here, IMO. Do we ignore his 110 IP and 5.22 ERA before the conversion to the pen, and if we do, how much faith do we put in the 13.1 IP sample size he has, so far, as a RP'er .460 OPS against)? No doubt, as of this very second, I'd like to see Richards back, and the diffeence between his option ($10M) and his buy-out ($1.5M) is $8.5M. That's about what we paid Ottavino, and I think he was barely worth that amount. As of now, keeping Richards looks okay to good, but let's ee how he looks over the rest of September.
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Almost all our best hitters have hit in several different slots. I think the whole comfort in one slot is overblown. All these guys love to hit- they just aren't all as good as Schwarber.
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You forgot Perez's option that will almost certainly be declined. The JD opt out before the deadline is mute. We'll give him a QO and he'll have until that date to decide to stay or go. However, the QO status does shy some teams away from wanting to sign him, so maybe it's not as "mute" as I think.
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It seems obvious, but as I have said often, I trust their choices on timing.
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Sox WAR Leaders (Before today) fWAR 4.6 Eovaldi 4.5 Bogey 4.4 Devers 3.7 Kike 3.0 ERod 2.4 JD 2.2 Verdugo 1.8 Renfroe 1.7 Pivetta 1.6 Whitlock + 0.1 on offense 1.4 Houck 1.4 Ottavino 1.3 Barnes 1.2 Arroyo 1.0 Richards 0.9 Schwarber 0.8 Taylor 0.7 Vaz 0.5 Perez 0.4 Plawecki 0.3 Dalbec 0.2 Sale 0.1 Wong, Shaw, Davis bWAR 4.4 Kike 4.2 Bogey 4.1 Eovaldi 3.6 Devers 2.9 Whitlock + 0.1 offense 2.5 JD 2.4 Verdugo 1.8 Renfroe 1.5 Ottavino 1.4 ERod 1.4 Arroyo 1.1 Barnes, Houck, Taylor 1.0 Richards +0.1 offense 0.9 Sale & Vaz 0.8 Schwarber, Sawamura, DHern 0.5 Perez, Rios 0.3 Workman 0.2 Wong 0.1 Plawecki, Bazardo, Brennan, Valdez
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Some things looking real good on the farm (5-0)... AAA (Woo wins 3-0) Seabold 6IP 1H 0 ER 3BB 4K Brewer 2IP 2H 0ER 1BB 4K Bazardo 1IP 1H 0ER Wong 3 for 5 AA (POR wins 7-1) Groome 5IP 2H 0ER 0BB 10K (Inrepeat 0 Walk & 10 Ks!) De Jesus 4IP 4H 1 ER 1BB 3K Casas 2 for 3 with 2HRs and 2 BBs Potts 2 for 4 Cottam with a dinger A+ Greenville wins 7-0 Walter 5IP 2H 0ER 0BB 4K Yorke 1 for 3 w 2BB & SB Koss 3 for 5 w SB Dalton 2 for 4 with HR & 2B Esplin 3 for 4 A Salem sweeps DBLHDR 14-2 and 2-1 McDonough 3 for 5 in gm 1/ 2 for 3 HR & BB in gm 2 Decker 2 for 3 w HR, 3 RBI & BB gm1/ 1 for 3 w BB & GW RBI in gm 2 Lugo 2 for 4 Bonaci 1 for 3 w 3B & 3 RBI
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You let us back in this thing!
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I'd really hate to see JD go. I know he struggled for the 60 game 2020 cluster season, and he's not hitting like '18-'19, this year, either, but the guy can hit. He had some big hits for us, this year- and not just in April. That being said, the $19M would allow us to fill some huge needs and offer a more simplified plan with Schwarber, assuming we extend or re-sign him. It would also allow for a better defense with Schwarber at DH not LF/1B. 1. Kike CF (FT- where he belongs) 2. Schwarber DH (where he belongs) 3. Devers 3B (Lock him up- anyway you have to) 4. Bogey SS (May opt out after 2022) 5. Renfroe RF (Not the best defender in RF, but his arm makes some up) 6. Verdugo LF (Hope to see some improvement) 7. Dalbec 1B (Need consistency) 8. Arroyo 2B (Makes for a better defensive team) 9. Vaz-Plawecki C (Might be Vaz's last season with us) Bench: Duran, Arauz, __FA Utility__ and eventually Casas
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Tomorrow is a big game. It's never easy to sweep, even at home, and CLE has a winning record, still. The next 9 after tomorrow will be very testing: (Day off) 3 vs TBR 3 @ CWS 3 @ SEA Then, things look a bit better... (Day off) 3 vs BAL (Day off) 2 vs NYM (Day off) 3 vs NYY (Day off) We finish with... 3 @ BAL 3 @ WSH Look at the 4 series stretch between @SEA 9/15 and @BAL 9/28, We have a day off between all 4 series! 4 Days of in 12 days before the last 6 game road trip.
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So, the chasers for the WC2 slot have bunched up more closely. OAK is 4 back, SEA 4.5 back and TOR 5 back from the Sox, but the big news is, we are now juts 0.5 behind the Yanks. True, we are down 2 in the loss column, but with so few days left to this long season, the Yanks having to play 3 more games than us may be hurtful. The Yanks play 19 days in a row, then have 2 days off in the last 10 of the season, including one before the series at Boston 9/24 to 9/26. They get a day off after our series then go to TOR for 3 and end with TBR at home for 3. The bad thing about ending with Tampa is that the Rays might be resting everyone good.
