moonslav59

Nice to see Joc Pederson bite his old team in the ass. Go Braves!!!!

I'd trade Richards and Perez for Patkin and a few Million.

You said it better than I. Yes, we don't need to spend $60M to try and be a juggernaut, I think we can improve by spending just $30-40M. Much of the salary we lose can be viewed as addition by subtraction. Bloom already built up the 40 man depth and adding 4-5 Rule 5 protectees should further that improvement, so we should actually be limited to just signing 3-5 free agents, unless we trade some players. Last winter, we signed 10 with about $40M. This prettymuch forces quality over quantity. Just what I like!

Okay, let's take a closer look at this myth that most of our batters had career or near career seasons. I'm going to break it down into 3 groups of players: 1) Top 8 players by PAs (over 275- actually also over 450) OPS Player PAs .890 Devers 664 (.847 career, .884 last 2 yrs, .916 in 2019) .867 JD Martinez 634 (.881 career, .870 last 2 yrs, 2 seasons over 1.000 in ’17 & ’18) .863 Bogaerts 603 (.812 career, .921 last 2, 3 seasons higher last 3 seasons) .777 Verdugo 604 (.791 career, .827 last 2, 2 seasons higher) .786 Kike 585 (.748 career, .707 last 2, 2 seasons higher ’18 & ’15) .816 Renfroe 572 (.786 career, .749 last 2, was at .805 in ’18) .659 Vazquez 498 (.692 career, .798 last 2, 3 seasons higher) .792 Dalbec 453 (.819 career, .959 in 2020) 4 of the 8 did better than their career OPS. 3 of 8 did better than their 2019-2020 combined OPS. 1 of 8 had a career high OPS. (5 had 2 or more other better seasons) 2) 7 Players with 100-275 PAs .567 Marwin 271 (.717 career, .698 last 2, every season better ‘14>’20) .769 Arroyo 181 (.690 career, .710 last 2, no years better) .737 Plawecki 173 (.667 career, .707 last 2, 2 seasons better ‘20 & ’17) .957 Schwarber 168 (.836 career, .825 last 2, no seasons better) .497 Cordero 136 (.663 career, ,773 last 2, all 4 seasons better) .597 Santana 127 (.709 career, .821 last 2, 5 seasons better) .578 Chavis 112 (.714 career, .728 last 2, ,857 in PIT after trade) 3 of 7 had an OPS higher than their career OPS. 3 of 7 did better than 2019-2020 combined OPS. 2 of 7 had career highs (Schwarber & Arroyo with aout 350 PAs combined- way less than the rest.) Marwin, Cordero & Santana were god awful and had more PAs than Schwarber, Iggy & Shaw combined. 3) 3 Players with 40-75 PAs .643 Arauz 75 (.644 career, .644 last year, 1 better) .915 Iggy 64 (.696 career, .775 last 2, .956 in 2020 was better) .843 Shaw 48 (.762 career, .619 last 2, 1 season better & .808 ‘15>’18) 2 of 3 beat career OPS. 2 of 3 beat '19-'20 combined 0 of 3 had career best season in 2021. Okay, so out of the major players, Kike and Renfroe had "career years. Schwarber and Arroyo did, too, but many players with more PAs than them did not even come close. Only 6 out of the top 15 PA players beat their 2019-2020 combined OPS. That's hardly out of the ordinary. When you look at the ages of many of those 15 players, you'd expect an improvement, not a decline. Myth busted. I'll do pitching, soon. Trust me, it ain't any better.

He'd sure look good in a Sox uniform.

ERA in small sample sizes are not good gauges. I'm not sure even Cora knows who starts game 5. (It might be Pivetta or Houck.)

I don't think we want to sign a pitcher to 6 or 7 years, and if we did, I don't think his name is Stroman. I think we make a strong play for Scherzer on a short term deal, end if we miss out, we go for another older pitcher (Verlander or Kershaw.) We may also go for a #3-4 type, but that depends on our plans for Houck & Whitlock. My guess is one is a starter.

If we offer him a QO and he refuses it, based on the idea he can get more elsewhere and doesn't want a season to reset his value, then we get a comp draft pick and have his $18M to spend on someone else.

Unreal PLayoff OPS Numbers... 1.606 Kike 1.112 JD 1.032 Devers .996 Bogey .973 Verdugo .911 Schwarber .714 Vaz .667 Renfroe .577 Arroyo Pitching IP Pitcher ERA 15.2 Eovaldi 3.45 8.2 Pivetta 3.12 9.0 Houck 4.50 6.2 ERod 5.40 6.1 Whitlock 1.42 3.2 Robles 7.36 3.2 C Sale 14.73 3.1 Brasier 5.40 3.0 Ottavino 0.00 2.2 Taylor 0.00 1.0 Barnes 0.00 0.2 DHern 27.00 0.2 Perez0.00 0.1 Davis 0.00 0.1 Richards 0.00 0.1 Sawamura 27.00

Probably not a child molester, though.

My position has not changed. I don't know what our winter budget will be. I have steadily said... If it's near $40M, we will need pretty much all of that to improve our pitching and sign a utility IF'er like maybe Iggy. If we can spend $55-60M, there is room for Scwarber, too, but if I'm spending big on a non pitcher, it wouldn't be on a DH. Having JD already makes it a slam dunk. (Trading JD totally changes my view.) Now, if spending over $50M and we are going to spend $15-20M a year on Schwarber to play 1B/OF, next year and squeeze Kike to 2B or bench Dalbec/Renfroe/Verdugo for a year, I'd rather spend $22-27M on Semien or Baez to play 2B and take over for Bogey, if he bolts after 2022. The $7M more is worth is. My position has not changed.

He's from Sugar Land. That's where I live. Everyone down here knows he's an A-hole and creep. https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2019/11/20/20972682/roger-clemens-mindy-mccready-ped-hall-of-fame-character-clause-mlb-hot-stove

Amazing how Kike has driven so much of those numbers, but wow, 2007 was a slugfest, too!

Move Schwarber to 2B and let Dalbec join the rake parade!

It's not a possibility unless both catchers are out. Having a third catcher allows 2 PHings in a game.

A third catcher, so we can PH for both of ours. It's not really a big deal. It makes little difference, either way.

It's not rocket science to think $35-40M gets us 2 ERods and nothing else.

I have said all along, if we go over by a significant amount, then we'll be able to upgrade the pitching and keep Schwarber. I'll beleive it when I see it, and the rumor is the threshold will be lower, so who knows. I'm going by the $40M number until I know more. Even if we spend $50-55M, this winter, I'm not sure signing Schwarber is better than signing Semien, who could play 2B for a huge upgrade and then take over SS, if Bogey bolts or gets traded. I think Semienor or Biaz is a bigger upgrade over Arroyo (who becomes the utility guy) than Schwarber is over a Dalbec/Verdugo/Renfroe rotation at DH/1B/corner OF. If we are going to spend on something other than pitching, as great as Schwarber is, I'm looking somewhere other than DH.

It was nice seeing him in the dugout. I thinkhe'll be back, next year.

Stop what?

jacko has said it is too early to know about Sale. Sale faced easy opponents early, and was limited in pitches. I wouldn't be so worried about a few bad starts, recently. He's not supposed to be at 100%, now. It might take time to adjust to his new arm. Also, he took 2 games to then reach his highest velo, this year. It dropped off after game 4: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/chris-sale/10603/graphs?pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2021&end=2021&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

It astounds you that after TJS he has not adjusted quickly enough? Hardly anyone comes back after TJS and adjusts quickly enough to be as good as ever after just a year and a half. I see what Sale has done since his return, and I'm encouraged. His velo is close to where it was before 2018. I'm thinking by next April or May, we can have this discussion without thinking the TJS is affecting who the new or old Sale will be. (BTW, I think Sale was already somewhat like Maddux before his injury. He had "command" and was beyond being a thrower and K man only.)

If our bats stay this hot, maybe nothing else matters. This has been spectacular! Our D has even looked passable. Even Schwarber is making plays at 1B. Of course, if our pitching can pull it together and guys like ERod and Pivetta can keep it up, there can be no stopping us!

If the lux tax stays about the same, we should have $35-40M to spend without going over, but I expect Henry to allow extra spending, this year. If ERod is given the QO and accepts it, that almost half the $40M without really gaining anything from 2021, unless ERod does much better. Maybe we trade for some pitching pieces, and the money can be spent on Schwarber and Iggy. Who do we trade without opening new holes or seriously hurting the farm? Bogey? Vaz? JD? Dalbec? (If we sign Schwarber) Duran? Downs? Casas?