moonslav59

Exposed for all to see. So much for Telling only "truths."

Indeed, and if you believe BAbip is not related to defense, and only unearned runs matter, one can view the defense's affect as such: We are 19th in runs allowed. We are 15th in earned runs allowed. That's significant but would not outweigh being 4th in runs scored.

...And I never said I wanted us to take the option. The option is $10M, but the buy out is $1.5M, so the difference is $8.5M for one year- about what we are paying Barnes times 3 years. I am not for giving him the option. I'm pretty sure we can do better. I've also been given crap for saying the ERod QO issue might be a closer call than many think it is. It's a one year deal with the chance for a nice sandwich pick, if he turns it down. At this time, I do not have a strong opinion of ERod's return. He's been a winner for years, and had serious COVID-related health issues, last year that could have life-long implications. That can be viewed as a negative, but it could also be viewed as part of the reason he sucked over his first 14 starts. One positive thing to look at is his last 16 starts: 3.87 ERA (.716 OPS Against despite the .351 BAbip) 3.07 FIP I suspect this will be hotly debated, this fall, and how he does tonight will weigh heavy on some poster's opinions.

We will not pitch Eovaldi on Saturday, unless it's an elimination game. If the M's win tonight, then Saturday could be an elimination game, so I guess it could happen. Tonight's games are going to decide a lot about Saturday. It could be Cora's biggest call of the year.

Versus a lefty, I think it makes sense. Kike at 2B not CF might not, but that would come down to: Renfroe v Iggy or Arroyo

I know winning is all that matters, but here are a few stat sideshows to watch for... 2 HRs by JD gives us 3 players with 30+ HRs 2 Hrs by Bogey and 1 from Dalbec give us 5 players with 25+ HRs JD is 1 RBI from 100 and just .007 behind the slumping Devers for the team OPS lead. Dalbec needs a huge game or very nice last 3 games to get back over .800. (He's down to .789) If we win, tonight, ERod ties Eovaldi with 19 team wins in games he started, this year.

The larger career sample sizes look better but still poor: LF: Schwarber +3 (-13 DRS) CF: Renfroe -1 (just 41 CF innings career- scary) RF: JD -5

We'll need 2-3 inning from the pen on Sunday, so why mess with Sale? Just use him then, if needed, of have him fresh for the WC game if not needed, in a good way. I get the argument that losing Saturday might make Sunday's game worthless, but Sale's arm is our golden goose.

The selfishness of a few brought the team to its knees. It has to mentioned as part of this team's demise and reflects poorly on the team's attitude and leadership.

Max got me thinking about how this team's poor defense comes "at the expense" of our good offense. I'm not sure any other team can field a line-up of 9 guys with 170+ PAs all hitting over .737. If I wanted to get cute and start Schwarber at catcher, it could be 9 over .770: 1. .783 Kike CF 2. .965 Schwarber C 3. .877 Devers 3B 4. .860 Bogey SS 5. .870 JD DH 6. .826 Renfroe RF 7. .780 Dalbec 1B (Shaw .878) 8. .777 Verdugo LF 9. .770 Arroyo 2B (Iggy .893) If you go with Plawecki .737 at catcher, you still have 9 over .737. This begs the question: what good did it do us?

I don't disagree, but I have two worries about Sale starting on Saturday: 1. He has not been able to go past 65-70 pitches much at all, which shows he is not at 100%. He might suck worse than Seabold/Houck/Whitlock. 2. Yes, he'll have the whole winter to "rest," but we don't want him to get hurt, either. I trust Cora's judgment, but we will likely need 2-3 innings in relief for Eovaldi on Sunday, so using Sale then makes more sense in some ways. Plus, if we don't need him Sunday, he's the starter in the WC game. Again, it's a tough call, and the all hands on deck plan is a good one in these situation.

No doubt.

Use Sale on Saturday from the pen and start him on Sunday? Eovaldi will start on Sunday, unless we've clinched or are eliminated.

I mentioned they might try having Schwarber and JD in the OF, at the same time, but I wasn't sure we'd see it. I did not expect it vs a lefty. I'm guessing we'll see it vs the next 2 righties, and maybe Verdugo replacing Renfroe in CF vs at least one of the righties, this weekend. They could play Schwarber at 1B vs a righty or two, and play both Renfroe and Verdugo in the OF, or let Kike play CF and get Iggy into a line-up. I think Cora's toughest call is who starts, tomorrow? Sale on short rest? Seabold with Houck & Whitlock on standby? Houck?

I agree, and I countered his positions, apparently because I like to be disagreeable.

That's basically his point. He's seeing things from the perspective of a Yankee fan that sees tons of injuries, every year.

Richards was about the same gamble as Kluber. We got about what was expected from him as you did with kluber. JD, at age 33, should not have been expected to suck. The guy was from .879 to .1.066 for 6 straight years, including .939 in 2019. One can easily view the short 2020 season and his .680 OPS as an outlier. Sure, decline was expected, but not like that on a normal bell curve. His .870 OPS is not really out of line with a normally declining career: 1.066 1.031 .939 ___ (2020) .870 I can see the point that one might have projected .820 to .,850, but it's not like .870 is eye-poppingly great. You are not the only one to mention we had great fortune with health, but you know, we also don't sign the same types of players Cashman signs. We did have terrible results from Cordero, Santana and Marwin, but none got the chance to play FT to list them as big failure. Togther, they were expected to get over 650 PAs. We don't have massive failures like the yanks had, this year but we do have a few moderate ones... I would say Vaz was being counted on to at least his .750. He was near .800 his previous 2 years. Players nearing prime usually improve- many of ours did not: Verdugo, Devers, Bogey to name a few. Sure, ERod stayed healthy, but his first half was horrific. Not unexpected, maybe, but just because he wasn't on the IL for half the year, like Kluber, he was not himself. The point made was we hardly had any "career years," and yet you claim we vastly outplayed what we showed on paper. Maybe you just underestimated how good guys like Whitlock, Houck, Dalbec, Kike, Renfroe, Pivetta and others were to begin with. Dalbec is actually doing worse than 2020. Houck missed time and did not reach the projected IP for 2021. Just because this does not compare to the losses the yanks suffered does not mean this team did not earn 88 wins. We tried to tell you you might be wrong about Sale, but you would have nothing of it. Schwarber missing 2 weeks was about what was expected. I'm not sure where the month thing came from. I heard 2-3 weeks. BTW, we may not have missed any big names for long stints, but we imploded when we had 5-10 guys out on COVID protocols, all at once.

Yes, but you'd start Sale on short rest, Saturday? Yes, he can and should pitch on Sunday, but I don't think he's the guy you pitch on Saturday.

B-R had the team bWAR as 0.0 in 2018 and -1.0 in 2021. fangraphs has... +10 DRS in 2018 -5 in 2021 UZR 25.3 to 1.5 UZR/150 6.7 to 2.2

BAbip 2018: .295 2021 .325

But, way worse numbers. While having less IP can be a blessing, it can also be a warning about durability and stamina. He's not had over 185 IP since 2017. He has had a couple non great years since 2016: 4.37/1.308 in 2016 5.54/1.476 in 2018 His best 3 seasons were 2017, 2019 and 2021. (He did not pitch in 2020.) His only 2 200 IP seasons were 2016 & 2017. His 1.145 WHIP in 2021 might be an outlier, as his prvious best was 1.289 way back in '16. His career WHIP is 1.266. The 3.63 ERA looks nice, and the 3.49 FIP is not bad, but it's also not close to what Price looked like at the time of his signing. Stroman will turn 31, next May. Price was about the same age at signing time, but he was coming off a 3 year average of 3.01/1.083 with an FIP of 2.85.) No, Stroman won't get Price money, but he might get close to 7 years, and he just does not seem like the guy you wait several years to decide to splurge on.

I thought the same thing.

I know what you said, and I pointed out that Verdugo did well in 2019 and 2020, possibly countering your claim of a 1 year aberration. (BTW, his 2019 season had more PAs than 2020, and 2019-2020 combined just about equal 2021's PAs- 598-595. .827 OPS to .777) I tend to expect improvement as players like Devers and Bogey near or reach peak prime years. My point about Devers being slightly better in 2019 but worse in '18 and '20 is weak, but to me, Bogey's 2021 was not in line with his 2028-2020 numbers, except for fWAR. Your point about fWar was noted and has merit. I still think Bogey was below his recent average by enough to say so, but fWAR says otherwise.

I think Shaw represented a better chance at getting on base than Plawecki. Not by much, but if he sat on his hands, he'd be bashed for that, too.

I likely gets a team to give him 6 years. I'd love getting him, but I don't want another burden like Price.