moonslav59

I'm not saying recency carries no weight. I'm terrified that we may need to go with Erod and maybe Sale again. Of course, it's our biggest worry, right now. Nothing is even close. My point has always been this can all change on a dime. My point was that no matter how many times the champions of recency bias are proven wrong, they never seem to learn any lessons from those losses. If ERod pitches 6 shutout innings and the pen blows the lead, we'll be hearing our pen is "our biggest issue." If the bats go silent, tomorrow, and we lose 2-0, we'll be hearing how being shut out twice in the series means our offense is the "biggest issue" going forward. If we went by recency bias, Robles would have been DFA'd long ago. Brasier, LMAO! It was not all that long ago, ERod was coming off a very nice 16 game stretch. He's had 2 bad starts, and it's a 100% certainty he will suck his next start. Did we not learn anything from a season full of prompt reversals and sudden meltdowns or hot streaks? Just read the first TB game thread and see how many people made definitive judgements about this team based on the shortest of short sample sizes, then yesterday's game suddenly has Sox fans thinking maybe we can win in 4. I never said I "expect" one of the two to "get it right" let alone both, but it's not even a 60 or 70% certainty ERod will suck in game 4, but it sounds like many here think it is a 99% certainty. I'm scared as hell he will suck his next start, and yes facing the Rays makes it even harder, but I will not be surprised if he does well enough to keep us in the game. It sounds like many here will be in shock.

Maybe the Yankee fan or Storktroll.

Well said. I would not start Sale game 4 or 5. I might try him in relief in a low leverage situation, if we get one.

Yankee FAs, this winter: Rizzo Kluber Odor Ages of Key Yanks in 2022: Pitchers listed by most IP in 2021: 31 Cole 29 Montgomery 30 Taillon 29 German 27 Cortes 31 Green 35 Luetage 27 Loaisiga 27 King 34 Chapman 30 Peralta 30 Cesa 26 Abreu 24 Gil 29 Holmes 34 Britton (28 Severino) Batters listed by most PAs 33 LeMahieu 30 Judge 32 Stanton 25 Torres 38 Gardner 30 Ushela 29 Sanchez 31 Voit 28 Gallo 21 Higgy 27 Andujar 27 Wade 32 Hicks 27 Velazquez

Some tiny sample sizes here... Playoff OPS 2.400 JD 1.706 Bogey 1.500 Plawecki (1GIDP) 1.423 Kike 1.231 Dugo (1 GIDP) .930 Schwarber .929 Devers .600 Vaz .558 Renfroe (3 GIDP) .362 Arroyo .000 Dalbec (1 GIDP), Santana, Shaw IP Pitcher ERA 6.0 Houck 1.50 5.1 Eovaldi 1.69 4.2 Pivetta 5.79 2.0 Robles 0.00 1.2 Brasier 0.0 1.2 ERod 10.80 1.0 Barnes & Ottavino 0.00 1.0 Whitlock 9.00 1.0 C Sale 45.00

Is 99 out of a 100 the threshold for an error to be called?

How do you know that? Our starters could do great in the next few games, and our pen blows a game or two, or the bats go silent. Yes, the first three games of the post season has seen 2 bad starts, but we were also shut out one game, and the pen has not been great every game.

A 4.11 ERA vs the Yanks, Astros and Dodgers in the 2018 playoffs is not "stunk." He only played in 1 playoff series before 2018, and yes, he stunk in that one. These tiny sample size proclamations confound me.

That's not even close to being true.

A few things on Sale: I have lost confidence, too, so I'm not arguing pitching him game 4 or 5. His 6 BBs in his last 13 IP of the regular season were telling. He had 6 BBs in his first 30 IP of 2021. What seems strange to me is the K numbers. Every out in that game vs the Nats was a K (7 out of 7 outs.). The last 2 games of the 2019 season- before his surgery- he K'd 25 in 14.2 IP. That one lone start he got in AUG of 2018, he K'd 12 in 5 IP (0 BB). I'm not sure where I'm going with this, but it seems like something is mixed up. Maybe he's trying too hard for the K, and bad things happen. Sale had a 4.97 ERA over his last 3 games of 2021. While that is not good, it is better than some other choices, and he was yanked very early vs the Nats (2 ER in 2.1 IP). While there is no sugar coating that start, I'm not sure we can read too much into it, by itself. It's the next start right afterwards that blew my confidence in him out of the water. That was just scary bad. The 2Ks in 3 outs could not put a dent in the fact that he sucked. Now, the whole sucks in the playoffs thing. Yes, he has declined at the ends of most of his seasons, and that raises durability and stamina issues, but that should not be in play, this year. He also only started 4 playoff games, before this year, so I'm not sure we can read too much into that, since his "bad playoff numbers" were highly influenced by his first playoff series in 2017 (9.2 IP 9 ER). in 2018, he pitched 15.1 IP, some in relief as most Sox starters did that year, and allowed just 11 hits. The 8 BBs were bad, but once again we see a very high K rate of 24Ks in 15.1 IP. That's 14 K/9 IP. Once again, I ask, is he trying to K batters too much in big games? The 7 ERs allowed in those 15.1 IP amounts to a 4.11 ERA, which does not look great, but certainly is not bad, when you figure those games were against the Yanks, Astros and Dodgers. Again, I'm not defending Sale, but I'm not going to definitively judge him based on 5 playoff starts.

He turns 34 during next season. You called JD over the hill at age 32-33 after a 60 game season. Both are in decline, but over the hill is a strong word. BTW, several Sox posters joined you in the opinion JD was toast.

There were times, this year, where the SP'ers carried the team for pretty long stretches, while the bats were cold and the pen was imploding or doing so-so. I'm not sure I would assume some of the starters are doomed to repeat what they did their last outing or two. That being said, I'm not sure if I'd have enough faith to go with Sale or ERod, again, but we may just have to go with one. Moving Houck into a starter role might work well, but he's been doing a fantastic job in our pen. Pivetta might be an option, but he struggled his last outing, too. Perez? LMAO! We'll go with Eovaldi for the all important game 3. It was great to split the first 2 games without Eovaldi, but just being able to use him once, this series, really hurts. Who starts game 4? ERod's on 3 day rest? But after such a short game, that may not matter. Then again, maybe nothing matters, and he IS doomed to have an awful game- maybe not. Sale on 2 day rest? I can't see that. Pivetta? He pitched more than Sale on Thursday and did not doo very well. Houck on 2 days rest? I can't see pushing him that hard. Perez? No freaking way! Pen game? Maybe the best bet, and maybe the reason they carried 1-2 more pitchers than I felt were needed when playing 6 games in 11 days. My guess is they start ERod but have the quickest hook imaginable.

She said it before the series, too.

We don't have to choose between ERod and Houck, and if we did it would be the first unanimous choice on this site. The choice may come down to $19M/1 for ERod vs $27M x 6 for Stroman or $30M x 3 for Scherzer. Now, the choice is not so easy.

I saw that. Not me. He doesn't even have the best OF arm on the team.

True, and he hit another HR on a ball outside the K zone. Apparently, some want to try and change who he is at the plate: a natural born hitter.

My guess- ERod. Other choices: Pivetta, Richards, Perez- or pen game. I doubt Houck can go many innings 3 days from today.

Good statement game. Looks like we'll need to wait for 2022 for Sale to be counted on, again. Kike was a great pick-up by Bloom. I hope JD has convinced the non believers, he's no slouch. Verdugo is possessed. Devers looks okay, after seemingly getting hurt or whatever that was, yesterday. The pen was magical. Gotta wonder, if we keep Houck in this role or just start the kid. Eovaldi at home for game 3. Things looking up, now.

It was close until the CWS RF'er misjudged a line shot, and the flood gates opened.

Too bad, Bloom settled on Robles, instead of Kimbrel and Schwarber over Rizzo.

Agreed, and since he has 2 arb years left, sometimes you can get a rather team friendly deal, because you give the player security he does not have with just 2 years left. Of course, Devers is probably not worried about a career-threatening injury or some unexpected decline, but getting more money up front, has a lot of value. I've been on the extend Devers bandwagon for a long time. Devers Forevers! Lock him up! Long term.

Devers has 2 more arb years to go. He's a FA after 2023, unless we extend him.

To me, SS is a very important defensive position, so even if Bogey is not all that great at 2B or SS, then it is still a plus moving him off SS. Of course, that assumes we add a better defensive SS without killing the offense by the differential we've gained on offense. If we moved Bogey to 2B, we'd be essentially replacing Arroyo's 2B bat with whoever we get at SS. If we move Devers to 1B to make room for Bogey at 3B, I agree, it gets more complicated and difficult to assess the gains, and the SS we add will have for his offensive comp: Dalbec/Casas not Arroyo. We could sign Semien to play 2B in 2022, and then move him to SS. if Bogey bolts, or just swap them in 2022.

Exactly. Good point. They only used 5 pitchers, last night. The way the schedule is set up, we can use every RP'er in every game, as long as it's not in long relief. With only 3-4 pitchers starting, that's 9-10 RP'er available, every game. Let's look at today: (We have tomorrow off.) No Pivetta, Eovaldi or ERod. We have 10 guys available. We could pull Sale in the first and still get an inning from everyone and not run out. All would be fresh for the next game, too. (If this is a "throwing day" for Eovaldi, he could go for a batter or two, as well.) Hey, we went with 3 catchers in the one and done game. It's not a crazy idea to think 12 pitchers is enough for 6 games in 11 days.