moonslav59

My first choice is we offer the QO and he says Yes. Second: offer and he says NO. Third: no QO offer, and we extend him at $15M x 4.

I have us at 4-5 open slots after DFA'ing or trading Potts and Rosario. If we sign or add 4-5 players then this guy means someone like Arauz or Davis has to go. I'm not saying he is a downgrade from Arauz or Plawecki or others.

Body Cams on cops?

It took him a while to get past being an obsessive nibbler that took 100 pitches to get through 4-5 innings, but once he did, he's been remarkably consistent, other than the missed COVID year and 1/3 seeason recovery period to start 2021. The team's winning % is the highest when he pitches more than any other pitcher in MLB since 2018. Correct me, if I'm wrong. 2017-2021 ERA+ 109 116 128 n/a 100 (3.60 ERA last 18 games) FIP 3.97 3.65 3.86 n/a 3.32 (3.11 last 22 games/ 3.03 last 18)

So, we drop someone like Arauz?

31 SB/ 3 CS in about 500 PAs (career .333 OBP) He's the next Whitlock!

Yes, and does Scwarber belong in that class? (Cruz, Papi, JD) I'm wondering if $14M x 4 is too much. He's no better defender than JD, Papi or Cruz.

He had a $10M option with a $1M buy out. Doesn't it seem they could have traded him? I'd have given Potts & Rosario for him.

Sox claim T.L.! https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/red-sox-to-claim-tim-locastro-from-yankees.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

Sox Lux Tax Years under Henry: 2004 2005 2006 2007 2010 2011 2015 2016 2018 2019 No Tax 2003 2008 2009 2012 2013 2014 2017 2020 2021

He might not even accept a "reasonable offer" for us to move on to other problems. Is he worth $16M x 4 or 5 years? $17M x 3-4 years? $18M x 2-3 years?

I don't see this as the Ben>DD period, if that's what you are hinting at. Hiring Bloom to set up the farm and roster depth for the next big spender and trader-in-chief. I think Bloom will eventually be given a chance to spend big- maybe even this winter.

Remember when our GM was bashed for getting this guy?

I might even go $13M x 5 or $14M x 5, assuming we lose JD. (Only if pushed by another team.)

Henry has stayed below for 2 years several times and even 3 years once or twice.

$14M x 4?

No. I merely provided the bWAR numbers along with other stats. Where did I say I now like bWAR better or that fWAR is meaningless? You are reading things into my statements that aren't there. I like fWAR better than bWAR, but I have never come close to saying any one stat or metric tells the whole story. The fWAR numbers do make me think longer and harder about Bogey's value when compared to others. I think defense at the SS position is highly important. It's been my position for over 40 years. Am I overly biased? Maybe. Probably. So, if it's all about fWAR: 19.3 Semien 18.8 Bogey There are, of course, other factors: Age Cost Years How much is defense valued vs offense in WAR and in personal opinions Intangibles Leadership If it came down to this, I'd choose Baez or Semien over Bogey: (All contracts bring players to age 35...) $27M x 6 Bogey (29) extension beyond 2022 $26M x 5 Semien (31) $23M x 7 Baez (28) I know my initial statement compared the 3 at the same contract rate, but to me, these numbers are probably more realistic as a comparative decision.

I agree, and I think he probably thinks we can win by staying near the tax line, again in 2022. Had we not made the playoffs, he'd be more motivated to spend more, this winter. I do think he wants another ring, but he's smart enough to try and time it just right. Spend big when you really thik you are one or tow big players away from being the faves for the ring. I'm not sure we are there, yet. The problem is, Eovaldi, Bogey and JD are free after 2022, and Devers will be on his last year. When is our best "window?" Some could argue 2022 & 2023.

Exactly. The enthusiasm is off the charts.

He kept doing the same after 2 times through. That's for sure.

Good points, but that might make the comp this... $27M x 6 Bogey vs $26M x 5 for Semien Still want Bogey?

Except on D.

I like fWAR better for everyday players, but here is bWAR (2018-2021) 20.2 Semien 18.4 Baez 17.6 Bogey Other numbers... OPS .894 Bogey (.899 last 3 years) .819 Baez (.789 last 3 years .811 Semien (.854 last 3 years) UZR/150 5.4 Semien 3.6 Baez 1.3 Bogey DRS 44 Baez 13 Semien -26 Bogey

I think we sign one starting pitcher (ERod?) and trade for another (Montas?).

Would you rather have Bogey at $27M x 6 or Semien at about the same? Would you rather have Bogey at $27M x 6 or Baez at $22M x 5?