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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Doesn't it seem like Lowrie was around during Dan Duquette's era? (I know he wasn't, but it feels like forever!)
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This better not be happening (again.)
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Hickey went 3-3 with 2 BBs and a 2B Kavadas had another BB w no Ks along with that 6th tater. The team walked 9 times and had just 3 Ks.
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The Way Too Early Tear Down Thread
moonslav59 replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
We might not win in 2018 without JD and Sale. -
A late bloomer.
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Those damn leadoff walks! And how many times to the 9 hitter?
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Big game from Big Nate. Pen better hold this one! How ab out some more runs?
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He always "had the tools," but so did a lot of others like him that failed. For a while, it looked like Winckowski was the best hope of redeeming something from that Beni trade. Now, Beni's control is up, this winter, and Franchy has 2 more arb years.
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The Way Too Early Tear Down Thread
moonslav59 replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Can anyone really imagine we could have a budget like this? AAV in $millions 30.0 Devers 29.0 Betts 28.1 Bogey 25.6 Sale 23.3 Story 22.0 JD 17.0 Nate Total $175M on just 7 players -
The Way Too Early Tear Down Thread
moonslav59 replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I'd say the odds are close to zero, unless Machado or someone else slides into him like they did Pedey. -
And, having 7 or 8 of these types increases the odds one will rise to become a solid #3.
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What pitcher has the most PAs (1645) and only 1 HR? Tom Glavine What pitcher has the most PAs (1559) and no HRs? Don Sutton What player has the most PAs with no HRs, since 1910? Roxy Walters (1601)
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Hoyt Wilhelm
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I wouldn't call it that, but we certainly don't have anyone near a can't miss #2-3 starter, even. It's a more promising outlook than we've had in years, but that's more of a reflection on just how sad it looked before now. I happen to think we will likely get a decent 4 & 5 starter out of this group and maybe one can be a solid #3, someday. We have some promising RP'ers, if that's any consolation. German looks like the real deal. Some of these starters might make fine RP'ers.
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Winckowski got drilled, tonight: 4.0 IP 9 H 5 ER (7 runs) 1 BB 3 K
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I don't think so. We have Whitlock and Houck. We have Pivetta with 2 m ore arb years. Maybe Paxton or Sale can return to grace. We will likely get a 4th and 5th starter from the bunch I listed, but maybe just one exceeds what their summaries project. Many of the guys listed are having career years, and their profiles have not been updated. My hope is, we can get a top arm via trade or free agency. We should have over $100M to spend, next winter, but we have to replace or extend Nate, Wacha and Hill. All hope is not lost with me.
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You act like some or most of us were expecting greatness out of guys like Winckowski and Seabold. We know their potential is likely a back-end starter or long relief arm. The thing is, those roles have real value, and we don't need all of these fringe guys to become our 5th starter or RP'er. Yes, we have hopes one or two of the many guys who fit that profile end up exceeding that expectation, and it's not like it never happens. How many of us though Houck would turn out like this, based on his minor league profile? Hell, the Yanks gave up on Whitlock. Years ago, you'd have bashed his profile like you are the current Sox mid-range prospects. We read the scouting reports. Nobody is expecting the next Roger Clemens. Here is the summary reports from sp: Winckowski Potential multi-inning bridge relief arm. Ceiling of a back-end starting pitcher. Could be very effective in a bulk role, in which his lack of strikeout potential with his fastball would not be as much of an issue. Slider misses more bats than his changeup at this point, but still does not at a very high level. Margin for error is slim, as he has to rely on commanding his pitches and generating weak contact. To stick as a starter long-term, needs to make strides with his command and improve his slider to the point where it can be counted on as a consistent bat-missing pitch at the major league level. Can effectively tunnel his fastball, sinker, vertical slider and changeup, with all moving in similar ways, but could stand to mix in more of his cutter or a horizontal slider to give hitters a different look. Very competitive. Really thinks about pitching and is always trying to refine his craft. Bello Potential back-end starter. Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. If he can not stick as a starter, could develop into a high-leverage reliever. Stuff looks like that of a starter, but combination of thin stature and delivery could indicate a future in the bullpen. Has done a much better job repeating delivery and holding velocity deeper into starts in looks in 2022. At his best, will flash three at least above-average pitches, and on the right day, all will look like potential plus pitches. Fastball and changeup are his best pitches right now and could profile in a late-inning bullpen role if slider and command do not continue to develop. Not imposing physically, but still has projection and has the type of athleticism you look for. Has continued to improve year after year, and now is one of the top pitching prospects in the system. Walter Potential major league swingman. Ceiling of a back-end starter. Will show a starter's arsenal with three average-or-better pitches and the ability to turn over a lineup, but does not have a typical starter's delivery. Command and control need refinement, as does consistency with secondary pitches. Can project as a starter or reliever depending on the day you see him. Has some traits that would push him to each potential outcome, but has the makings of a major league-caliber arm either way. If pushed to the bullpen, combination of stuff and handedness gives him a decent floor. Breakout prospect for whom scouts are still getting a feel. Mata Projects as a back-end starter, but delivery and command profile could ultimately push him to the bullpen, where his stuff could play in a late-inning relief role. Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Has a much better chance to start now after taking to his new slider and cleaning up his delivery. Changeup still needs refinement, but has the potential for a true four-pitch mix with two plus offerings. Has shown the ability to miss bats with all four pitches at various points in his career. After developing physically, harnessing command of his arsenal will be key for his development. Injuries are becoming a concern, particularly after 2021 UCL injury. Will need to continue to watch conditioning as he physically matures. Still is very young and is a very intriguing arm who still has a lot of pitching development left. Tommy John Surgery in April 2021 clouds future starter profile. Murphy Potential multi-inning relief arm. Ceiling of a back-end starter. Dominance against lefties gives him a chance to pitch at the major league level. Chances of starting will depend on improving his control and showing he can consistently get right-handed hitters out. Posted extreme splits in 2021, dominating left-handed hitters (.401 OPS, 0 HR) but getting hit very hard by right-handers (.914 OPS, 21 HR). Misses a lot of bats, but pitch counts may prevent him from going deep into games. Seabold Potential number 5 starter. Ceiling of a solid 3-to-4 starter. Lacks a plus pitch right now, but will show three at least-average offerings. Strong pitchability and advanced command and control profile allow his arsenal to play up. At his best, can generate whiffs with three pitches. Not the highest ceiling, but command/control and feel/pitchability, combined with proximity to MLB, give him a high floor. Needs velocity and feel for changeup to return to reach his ceiling. With diminished velocity projects more as a spot-starter or low-end number five type. Gonzalez Great arm with a wide range of potential outcomes. Ceiling of a solid mid-rotation starter, but size and delivery could push him to the bullpen potentially. Great arm strength with a lot of development remaining. Fastball and changeup show the most potential right now. Breaking balls and command and control need work. Still learning how to pitch, but is not as raw as some comparable arms age-wise in the system.
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1. Not all of our best prospects are old for their levels, and Seabold isn't even top 10, so singling him out as an example of our failed system is plain short-sighted. Our system still has a ways to go, but under the bonus restrictions and IFA bonus pool rules, we've done a good job improving our farm system in about 2 years. 2. Some of the 23+ year olds in AAA have had serious injury setbacks, so the age is not the concern. 4. Bello 23 5. Duran 25 6. Walter 26 7. Mata 23 9. Murphy 24 10. Winckowski 23 11. Seabold 26 13. Downs 23 15. Groome 23 19. Fitzy 29 22. Crawford 26 24. Ward 25 27. Wong 26 28. German 24 30. Koss 24 Sure, many of these "older guys" won't pan out, but some still show a lot of promise, and we don't even need half to come through in a meaningful way. Even 1 out 4 might be enough. The biggest gains have been on the younger front. You act like you hold it against Bloom because Mayer fell in his lap. Well, 3 other GMs chose other players. We also have 1. Casas 22 3. Yorke 20 8. Bleis 18 12. Gonzalez 20 14. Rafaela 21 16. Paulino 19 17. Binelas 22 18. Jordan 19 21. Lugo 21 23. McDonough 23 (just out of college) 25. Bonaci 19 26. Hickey 22 Others on the rise: Kavadas, Uberstine, Bazardo, Hamilton, Politi and others. Face it: the farm is vastly b etter than it was 2-3 years ago- like it or not. No, they all won't do well. Likely more than half won't, but we've greatly improved the quality and quantity and improved the odds several will break through. 20, Jimenez 21 3. Where did I even hint at getting great returns for our FAs to be? I do know Bloom got Pivetta and Seabold for Workman and Hembree, so I do have some hope he will get it right on a few of the pending deals. The idea is not to replace Bogey with the next young Bogey, but to maybe add to the quality and quantity of our farm to improve the odds on striking gold or silver from a few of those added, Th real replacement has to come from the money cleared from the budget. It might be 2-3 players on shorter deals that aren't as good as Bogey, JD and Big Nate, but maybe combined we can create a winner. Plus, who knows if bringing back the big 3 will be the right choice, either? It might be a lose-lose choice.
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The Way Too Early Tear Down Thread
moonslav59 replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I know we might have upwards of $100-110M to spend, this winter, assuming the budget stays somewhat level, but I think we have more open slots than you and others do. I do think Bloom will try some in system solutions to a few open slots, but I can’t see him offering any where near what Bogey will be offered elsewhere. I think they see Story as the SS of the next 2-3 years, and I don’t think Bogey will agree to move positions. To me, that’s the main reason i think he walks. I think the reported low initial offer confirms my opinion. I’d be surprised if he comes back, unless nobody offers him more. I think our higher need areas are pitching, catching and OF, and other needs are also higher than SS or 2B. Just my opinion. -
The Way Too Early Tear Down Thread
moonslav59 replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Reported offer was absurd: I agree. I do think the Story signing sealed Bogey's fate- like it or not, and I can understand why many fans prefer Bogey. -
"I like guys that don't make errors." This clearly means you don't like Devers, because he makes errors. You showed he leads the league in errors by "qualified" 3Bmen, neglecting to point out others have made the same or more errors in less chances, just to emphasize your silly point. Own up. You don't like Devers based on 6 errors., saying "I'll stick with Parcells that says you are what your record says you are." Well, you are what your record says you are: a silly troll.
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The Way Too Early Tear Down Thread
moonslav59 replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
The fact that Bloom came from Tampa is not the "Woo Hoo" part of this admirer. Sure, I like to think maybe he can find some under-the-radar talent for cheep that can help build a roster that needs less major FA signings than most past Sox teams have had, but what I like about Bloom is the same as I did about Ben: seeking to build a more balanced approach to winning and winning over a longer term than intermittent 3 year windows. Don't get me wrong, I loved DD's 3 year window and felt it could have lasted 4-5 years, but that's got nothing to do with Bloom. I do think Henry has tried to reign in the spending, and in a sense, move towards the "Tampa Way," from time to time, but never fully embracing the idea, as well he should not have. We will never be Tampa, but it's not a crime or a bad idea to try and take the best parts of their "way" and incorporating those ideas into our strategy and plans for building a long term winning system. Now, a short plug for the "Tampa Way." While they have yet to win a ring, which is understandable with their budget, they have only finished in last place once since 2007 and haven't finished below 3rd place since that 2016 last place finish. It's not necessarily a bad idea to think you can try and mimic their "Way," but not have to trade away your best players while they still have 2-3 years of prime production in them. I don't think Henry or Bloom are trying to make the Sox into the Rays. The Rays have not done a few things very well, including drafting and IFA signings. I think Henry wanted to rebuild the farm and ML foundation 40 man roster and do it as quickly as possible. He chose Bloom for that job, and I think he's the right kind of GM for that job. Whether Henry sticks with the plan, or get's anxious, like he did with Ben, remains to be seen, but IMO, Bloom has done a pretty good job doing what I think he was asked to do. Now, we near the next step, and your guess is as good as mine, if Bloom is up to the task. I have no idea, if he will do better with major signings than past Sox GMs. Many have not only failed, they have flopped, sometimes right out of the gate. Time will tell. -
The Way Too Early Tear Down Thread
moonslav59 replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I just stated the fact or how much was spent. You haven't stated your opinion, actually. Say it: "I think Bloom could have spent more, but he chose not to." Then, if this is your opinion, share what evidence leas you to think this. Is that your opinion, or are you just stating some nebulous comment about how "nobody knows ____." -
The Way Too Early Tear Down Thread
moonslav59 replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I think all our GMs had certain sending guidelines, and if they wanted to exceed the guidelines, they had to convince Henry on the merits of it. I'm thinking all major signings had to be approved by upper management or Henry, himself. I think Bloom was handed one of the worst, if not the worst farms of any of the GMs under Henry. I think DD was handed about as much deadwood contracts as Bloom, maybe more, but he was allowed to spend like no other GM, including Theo. I'm curious how anyone can judge that someone is in over his head when he's handed a roster with 20 holes in it and $40M to spend on 1 year deals to fix it. He turned a team that was the worst Sox team I've ever seen to a near league champion. Yes, we were near not making the playoffs, too in '21, but I just don't get why so many feel so much negativity towards a GM who has yet to be given a real chance at making his mark on the team. The admirers see the progression the 40 man roster nad farm has made, and await the outcome of his major moves, until the judgement time is up. Judging the Betts, Beni, JBJ and Story deals, now, is premature. Sure, have an opinion based on what you feel is going to happen, and how all the deals and non deals will stack up against time, That's fine. I guess I'd just like a little more details on what exactly shows Bloom is over his head. I assume you think he got duped in the Betts deal, that 3 years of Beni will outweigh all the years from Cordero, Winckowski and others, and that Binelas & Hamilton will never make up for the net loss between Renfroe and JBJ. And, all of this outweighs the plus moves you've agreed he's made- like Whitlock & Pivetta and maybe German, Schreiber, Wacha, Hill, Strahm and others. IMO, the Story deal is the only major one he's made. It's hard to judge a GM based on that and a bunch of minor deals. -
The Way Too Early Tear Down Thread
moonslav59 replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
If you're talking about my man, Vince, it's widely believed he never actually said that statement. He was quoted as saying this... "“Winning is not a sometime thing…it's an all the time thing. You don't win once in a while…you don't do the right thing once in a while…you do them right all the time. Winning is a habit.” “Show me a good loser, and I'll show you a loser.”

