moonslav59

RF is Fenway is way to scary for Dalbec.

Could be. I really like the lefty Devers 2nd, and the trend seems to be your best hitter bats 2nd.

How many teams spent more than the Sox, this winter, on 2022 salary, only?

Adding Story sure improves the line-up... 1. Kike CF 2. Devers 3B 3. Bogey SS 4. JD DH 5. Story 2B 6. Verdugo LF/Dalbec 1B 7. Dalbec 1B/Verdugo LF 8. Vaz C 9. JBJ RF Bench: Plawecki, Arroyo, Duran and Shaw/Arauz/Downs/Casas

Do we put Sale on the 60 day IL to make room for Story or DFA someone in hopes Sale can return before 60 days?

While the list of promising SP'ers on the farm is not fantastic, do you think it has improved since Bloom took over? 6. Bello 8. Groome 10. Mata 11. Seabold 12. W Gonzalez 13. Winckowski 14. Murphy 17. Walter 19. Song 20. Ward 27. Crawford After 2019 2. Mata 3. Groome 7. Houck 8. Song 10. Ward 11. Zeferjahn 12. A Ramirez (traded) 13. C Murphy 17. Bello (Many are the same names just moved up or down.)

True, and we'd need to start drafting or signing IFA pitchers more often. I can't fault Bloom for taking Mayer, though. There are other ways to acquire good young pitching- like when we traded Andrew Miller for ERod. Your point about trading Betts without getting pitching back was very reasonable, but even then, we tried, but Graterol failed the physical. (I kinda hoped he did not fail it.)

The Lux Tax Numbers: 25.6 Sale 23.3 Story 22.0 JD 20.0 Bogey 17.0 Eovaldi 16.0 Price 12.0 JB ~10.3 Devers 10.0 Paxton 9.38 Barnes 7.00 Kike, Wacha, Vaz 5.00 Hill 4.00 Diekman ~3.8 Pivetta ~3.5 Verdugo 3.00 Strahm 2.25 Plawecki 1.50 Sawamura 1.40 Brasier ~1.25 Arroyo ~1.00 Taylor add the 0-3 year players, the bonus pool and 40 man roster players in the minors, plus the player benefits $16M and our grand total is about: $236.6M (almost $7M over the lux tax line)

You don't think he will? (Also, doesn't mean he'll get it.)

Like last year, we don't need everything to go right... just enough things to go right or not go too badly. Think of all that went wrong, last year. We got swept by the O's to start the year and lost 2 of 3 in the penultimate series of the season, when winning meant just about everything. Our 3 (Richards) and 4 (Perez) starters flamed out. Barnes burst into flames. Houck went down, seemingly when we needed him the most. Ottavino failed to give us what we needed (1.45 WHIP). Sawamura gave us about the same WHIP. We counted on guys like Valdez (1.35 in 40 IP), Andriese (1.768 in 37 IP), Workman (1.900/20), Brice, Weber and others. We counted on Marwin way too much (finished 7th in PAs in April & May) Cordero & Santana had over 100 PAs in the first half of '21. These three his .583, .497 and .597 in 534 PAs combined. Duran to the rescue (.578 in 82 PAs) did not work as hoped. The expected growth from Verdugo didn't really materialize until the playoffs: .817 OPS in '19 .844 OPS in '20 .777 OPS in '21 Vaz hit .799 from 2019-2020 (710 PAs) but dropped to .659, last year. Arroyo missed most of the season. Although JD bounced back, he was still way below 2014-2019 OPS of .954. While Devers and Bogey both had fine years, Bogey missed some time and dealt with hand issues and Devers started out very slowly. At ages 23 and 27, one might have expected career or near career years in 2021. Dalbec looked like he was 2-3 bad days away from being demoted, before he carried the team on his back for a couple months. Kike was a godsend, but he too, missed significant time. I'm not crying injuries, here. We did better than most teams on the health front, but a lot did go wrong in 2021, yet a few players came through and stepped up their game, when we needed it most. We added Schwarber, Iggy, Shaw, Robles and Davis mid season, and they helped, too. I know there doesn't seem like there is a lot to be optimistic about, right now, and I share in the concern and worries many here have shared, but we don't need everything to go right in 2022, either.

We don't need all or even half of the promising pitchers to give us something good, this year. Maybe only 1 or 2 will do, depending on the health and well being of the guys at the top. How well Sale & Paxton do, when they come back might be the tipping point to the winning side, as well. Maybe we can keep Houck or Whitlock in the pen all or most of the year. Both would work even better, but that would mean at least one of these guys would have to step up: Crawford Winckowski Seabold Keller Hart Bello Groome Murphy If we end up using Houck and or Whitlock in the rotation for most of the year, we'd need 2-3 of the guys in red to step it up a notch, because hoping 7-8 out the 10 in balck might be too much to ask for: Barnes Brasier Taylor Diekman Strahm Sawamura Davis Robles DHern Holland Bazardo Valdez ZKelly D Feltman K Ort J Schreiber or, convert a starter to the pen (see above list)

I'm a big Pivetta fan & cheerleader. Yes, that was a very nice trade, even more so, if you take into account what Workman & Hembree have done since the deal. Pivetta did look good, last year, and many might think he's due for a regression, but as you pointed out, he's at the peak of his career, and his numbers were not all that far off from his career line. 2021/career 4.28/4.52 FIP 3.8/3.5 BB/9 (actually worse) 10.2/9.8 K/9 1.4/1.6 HR/9 1.303/1.395 WHIP Looking at the WHIP numbers, he's had 2.5 seasons over 1.305: his rookie year in '17, 2019 and the short 2020 season of less than 16 IP. He's had 2 good seasons: 1.305 in 2018 1.303 in 2021 Those two seasons represented 319 of his career 561 innings or 57%. He just turned 29. Can he regress? Sure. Will he regress? I don't think so.

For argument's sake, let's make a few assumptions. Let's say we could have signed these players for $1M more than what they signed for, and we signed just 3-4 FAs, not 6, and we spent to or close to the lux tax line and not $16M below, like we are at now. Here's one scenario: I welcome yours... (Spend $55-59M lux tax dollars) $23.5M x 6 Javier Baez $15.6 x 5 ERod $14.3 x 4 Jon Gray $5.5M x 2 McHugh

All are guesses, and then there's the chance someone gets hurt or craps out and someone else is added to the mix. Those three questions are perhaps the biggest ones to start the season, beyond pitching. Dalbec is maybe 4th. One player that could take up some slack of poor hitting in the OF is Vaz, who was near .800 from 2019-2020, combined, or we could have a blast-off career year from Devers and/or Bogey. Verdugo could also explode. (That's the optimist view.)

The 2021 Rotation vs the 2022 Rotation by GS'd Possibility: GS 2021>2022 32 Eovaldi 32 31 ERod > *(+10 Sale, +10 Houck, +9 Whitlock,+2 Pivetta= 32) 30 Pivetta 32* 22 Richards 22 Wacha 22 Perez 22 Hill 13 Houck 23* 9 Sale 19* 3 Peacock/Seabold/Craford combined> 12 Whitlock* Of course, we almost certainly will see some starts by one of more of these guys or someone I did not mention: Crawford, Seabold, Winckowski, Bello.

I showed who sits: Arroyo- they guy who has never come close to playing a full season in the bigs. I have no issue with your idea, and it might be the more likely choice. I'm thinking Cora likes to play everybody. He played Mawin and Cordero way too long. He was determined to give Santana more than enough rope, once he could play. I think he gives Arroyo and Duran, both a chance to earn FT status, and it might turn out to not be at the expense of the other, if JBJ shits the bed.

Yes, with Duran in LF and Kike at 2B. I should have stated that.

So, you think Arroyo will start as the FT 2Bman and Kike as the FT CF'er? That is certainly an equally plausible scenario- maybe even the favorite in odds. I think Cora might want to start the year making more players feel like they are a part of the big show, and giving Duran a shot at earning a bigger role by starting out just hitting vs RHPs.

Arroyo is not moving. He's just a platoon at 2B with Kike. Duran might e lucky to play as much as I have him playing, then again, he may earn a FT slot during the season. Kike moved a lot, last year, between 2B and CF. With so many lefty-hitting OF'ers, I think Kike need to be in the OF vs lefties. (I'd prefer he is there FT.) Verdugo does not hit lefties well, and he's the best we got.

Is this the line-up? 1. Kike CF v L/ 2B v R 2. Devers 3B 3. Bogaerts SS 4. JD DH 5. Verdugo RF v R/ Dalbec v L 6. Dalbec v R/Verdugo LF v L 7. JBJ CF v R/ RF v L 8. Vaz C 9. Duran LF v R/ Arroyo 2B v L

Actually, I studied Spanish a C.E.P.E. at U.N.A.M. (basically the University of Mexico City), but I graduated from Notre Dame.

You haven't been reading my posts. IMO, JBJ will start the season as the near FT RF/CF'er. I never said he ends the season as a starter.

If Arroyo is healthy- I know: big IF- yes. Duran on the bench and Arroyo at 2B, Kike in CF and Verdugo in LF/JBJ in RF. Maybe Duran & Arroyo work out some sort of platoon with Kike bouncing between CF & 2B. We might also end up seeing Dalbec at 2B and or LF, if either of these two struggle and Casas or Shaw look deserving of ML playing time.

I forgot #43 Niko Kavadas from my alma mater.

Speaking of significant farm additions, here's who we've added since the end of 2020: (soxprospects.com ranking) 2. Mayer 13. Winckowski (Beni trade) 15. Bleis 18. Binelas (Renfroe trade) 21. McDonough 23. R Hernandez (Mazza/Springs trade) 26. Hamilton (Renfroe trade) 29. Hickey 33. Enderso Lira 46. Fraymi de Leon 47. Freili Encarnacion