moonslav59

I'd say the odds are close to zero, unless Machado or someone else slides into him like they did Pedey.

And, having 7 or 8 of these types increases the odds one will rise to become a solid #3.

What pitcher has the most PAs (1645) and only 1 HR? Tom Glavine What pitcher has the most PAs (1559) and no HRs? Don Sutton What player has the most PAs with no HRs, since 1910? Roxy Walters (1601)

Hoyt Wilhelm

I wouldn't call it that, but we certainly don't have anyone near a can't miss #2-3 starter, even. It's a more promising outlook than we've had in years, but that's more of a reflection on just how sad it looked before now. I happen to think we will likely get a decent 4 & 5 starter out of this group and maybe one can be a solid #3, someday. We have some promising RP'ers, if that's any consolation. German looks like the real deal. Some of these starters might make fine RP'ers.

Winckowski got drilled, tonight: 4.0 IP 9 H 5 ER (7 runs) 1 BB 3 K

I don't think so. We have Whitlock and Houck. We have Pivetta with 2 m ore arb years. Maybe Paxton or Sale can return to grace. We will likely get a 4th and 5th starter from the bunch I listed, but maybe just one exceeds what their summaries project. Many of the guys listed are having career years, and their profiles have not been updated. My hope is, we can get a top arm via trade or free agency. We should have over $100M to spend, next winter, but we have to replace or extend Nate, Wacha and Hill. All hope is not lost with me.

You act like some or most of us were expecting greatness out of guys like Winckowski and Seabold. We know their potential is likely a back-end starter or long relief arm. The thing is, those roles have real value, and we don't need all of these fringe guys to become our 5th starter or RP'er. Yes, we have hopes one or two of the many guys who fit that profile end up exceeding that expectation, and it's not like it never happens. How many of us though Houck would turn out like this, based on his minor league profile? Hell, the Yanks gave up on Whitlock. Years ago, you'd have bashed his profile like you are the current Sox mid-range prospects. We read the scouting reports. Nobody is expecting the next Roger Clemens. Here is the summary reports from sp: Winckowski Potential multi-inning bridge relief arm. Ceiling of a back-end starting pitcher. Could be very effective in a bulk role, in which his lack of strikeout potential with his fastball would not be as much of an issue. Slider misses more bats than his changeup at this point, but still does not at a very high level. Margin for error is slim, as he has to rely on commanding his pitches and generating weak contact. To stick as a starter long-term, needs to make strides with his command and improve his slider to the point where it can be counted on as a consistent bat-missing pitch at the major league level. Can effectively tunnel his fastball, sinker, vertical slider and changeup, with all moving in similar ways, but could stand to mix in more of his cutter or a horizontal slider to give hitters a different look. Very competitive. Really thinks about pitching and is always trying to refine his craft. Bello Potential back-end starter. Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. If he can not stick as a starter, could develop into a high-leverage reliever. Stuff looks like that of a starter, but combination of thin stature and delivery could indicate a future in the bullpen. Has done a much better job repeating delivery and holding velocity deeper into starts in looks in 2022. At his best, will flash three at least above-average pitches, and on the right day, all will look like potential plus pitches. Fastball and changeup are his best pitches right now and could profile in a late-inning bullpen role if slider and command do not continue to develop. Not imposing physically, but still has projection and has the type of athleticism you look for. Has continued to improve year after year, and now is one of the top pitching prospects in the system. Walter Potential major league swingman. Ceiling of a back-end starter. Will show a starter's arsenal with three average-or-better pitches and the ability to turn over a lineup, but does not have a typical starter's delivery. Command and control need refinement, as does consistency with secondary pitches. Can project as a starter or reliever depending on the day you see him. Has some traits that would push him to each potential outcome, but has the makings of a major league-caliber arm either way. If pushed to the bullpen, combination of stuff and handedness gives him a decent floor. Breakout prospect for whom scouts are still getting a feel. Mata Projects as a back-end starter, but delivery and command profile could ultimately push him to the bullpen, where his stuff could play in a late-inning relief role. Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Has a much better chance to start now after taking to his new slider and cleaning up his delivery. Changeup still needs refinement, but has the potential for a true four-pitch mix with two plus offerings. Has shown the ability to miss bats with all four pitches at various points in his career. After developing physically, harnessing command of his arsenal will be key for his development. Injuries are becoming a concern, particularly after 2021 UCL injury. Will need to continue to watch conditioning as he physically matures. Still is very young and is a very intriguing arm who still has a lot of pitching development left. Tommy John Surgery in April 2021 clouds future starter profile. Murphy Potential multi-inning relief arm. Ceiling of a back-end starter. Dominance against lefties gives him a chance to pitch at the major league level. Chances of starting will depend on improving his control and showing he can consistently get right-handed hitters out. Posted extreme splits in 2021, dominating left-handed hitters (.401 OPS, 0 HR) but getting hit very hard by right-handers (.914 OPS, 21 HR). Misses a lot of bats, but pitch counts may prevent him from going deep into games. Seabold Potential number 5 starter. Ceiling of a solid 3-to-4 starter. Lacks a plus pitch right now, but will show three at least-average offerings. Strong pitchability and advanced command and control profile allow his arsenal to play up. At his best, can generate whiffs with three pitches. Not the highest ceiling, but command/control and feel/pitchability, combined with proximity to MLB, give him a high floor. Needs velocity and feel for changeup to return to reach his ceiling. With diminished velocity projects more as a spot-starter or low-end number five type. Gonzalez Great arm with a wide range of potential outcomes. Ceiling of a solid mid-rotation starter, but size and delivery could push him to the bullpen potentially. Great arm strength with a lot of development remaining. Fastball and changeup show the most potential right now. Breaking balls and command and control need work. Still learning how to pitch, but is not as raw as some comparable arms age-wise in the system.

1. Not all of our best prospects are old for their levels, and Seabold isn't even top 10, so singling him out as an example of our failed system is plain short-sighted. Our system still has a ways to go, but under the bonus restrictions and IFA bonus pool rules, we've done a good job improving our farm system in about 2 years. 2. Some of the 23+ year olds in AAA have had serious injury setbacks, so the age is not the concern. 4. Bello 23 5. Duran 25 6. Walter 26 7. Mata 23 9. Murphy 24 10. Winckowski 23 11. Seabold 26 13. Downs 23 15. Groome 23 19. Fitzy 29 22. Crawford 26 24. Ward 25 27. Wong 26 28. German 24 30. Koss 24 Sure, many of these "older guys" won't pan out, but some still show a lot of promise, and we don't even need half to come through in a meaningful way. Even 1 out 4 might be enough. The biggest gains have been on the younger front. You act like you hold it against Bloom because Mayer fell in his lap. Well, 3 other GMs chose other players. We also have 1. Casas 22 3. Yorke 20 8. Bleis 18 12. Gonzalez 20 14. Rafaela 21 16. Paulino 19 17. Binelas 22 18. Jordan 19 21. Lugo 21 23. McDonough 23 (just out of college) 25. Bonaci 19 26. Hickey 22 Others on the rise: Kavadas, Uberstine, Bazardo, Hamilton, Politi and others. Face it: the farm is vastly b etter than it was 2-3 years ago- like it or not. No, they all won't do well. Likely more than half won't, but we've greatly improved the quality and quantity and improved the odds several will break through. 20, Jimenez 21 3. Where did I even hint at getting great returns for our FAs to be? I do know Bloom got Pivetta and Seabold for Workman and Hembree, so I do have some hope he will get it right on a few of the pending deals. The idea is not to replace Bogey with the next young Bogey, but to maybe add to the quality and quantity of our farm to improve the odds on striking gold or silver from a few of those added, Th real replacement has to come from the money cleared from the budget. It might be 2-3 players on shorter deals that aren't as good as Bogey, JD and Big Nate, but maybe combined we can create a winner. Plus, who knows if bringing back the big 3 will be the right choice, either? It might be a lose-lose choice.

I know we might have upwards of $100-110M to spend, this winter, assuming the budget stays somewhat level, but I think we have more open slots than you and others do. I do think Bloom will try some in system solutions to a few open slots, but I can’t see him offering any where near what Bogey will be offered elsewhere. I think they see Story as the SS of the next 2-3 years, and I don’t think Bogey will agree to move positions. To me, that’s the main reason i think he walks. I think the reported low initial offer confirms my opinion. I’d be surprised if he comes back, unless nobody offers him more. I think our higher need areas are pitching, catching and OF, and other needs are also higher than SS or 2B. Just my opinion.

Reported offer was absurd: I agree. I do think the Story signing sealed Bogey's fate- like it or not, and I can understand why many fans prefer Bogey.

"I like guys that don't make errors." This clearly means you don't like Devers, because he makes errors. You showed he leads the league in errors by "qualified" 3Bmen, neglecting to point out others have made the same or more errors in less chances, just to emphasize your silly point. Own up. You don't like Devers based on 6 errors., saying "I'll stick with Parcells that says you are what your record says you are." Well, you are what your record says you are: a silly troll.

The fact that Bloom came from Tampa is not the "Woo Hoo" part of this admirer. Sure, I like to think maybe he can find some under-the-radar talent for cheep that can help build a roster that needs less major FA signings than most past Sox teams have had, but what I like about Bloom is the same as I did about Ben: seeking to build a more balanced approach to winning and winning over a longer term than intermittent 3 year windows. Don't get me wrong, I loved DD's 3 year window and felt it could have lasted 4-5 years, but that's got nothing to do with Bloom. I do think Henry has tried to reign in the spending, and in a sense, move towards the "Tampa Way," from time to time, but never fully embracing the idea, as well he should not have. We will never be Tampa, but it's not a crime or a bad idea to try and take the best parts of their "way" and incorporating those ideas into our strategy and plans for building a long term winning system. Now, a short plug for the "Tampa Way." While they have yet to win a ring, which is understandable with their budget, they have only finished in last place once since 2007 and haven't finished below 3rd place since that 2016 last place finish. It's not necessarily a bad idea to think you can try and mimic their "Way," but not have to trade away your best players while they still have 2-3 years of prime production in them. I don't think Henry or Bloom are trying to make the Sox into the Rays. The Rays have not done a few things very well, including drafting and IFA signings. I think Henry wanted to rebuild the farm and ML foundation 40 man roster and do it as quickly as possible. He chose Bloom for that job, and I think he's the right kind of GM for that job. Whether Henry sticks with the plan, or get's anxious, like he did with Ben, remains to be seen, but IMO, Bloom has done a pretty good job doing what I think he was asked to do. Now, we near the next step, and your guess is as good as mine, if Bloom is up to the task. I have no idea, if he will do better with major signings than past Sox GMs. Many have not only failed, they have flopped, sometimes right out of the gate. Time will tell.

I just stated the fact or how much was spent. You haven't stated your opinion, actually. Say it: "I think Bloom could have spent more, but he chose not to." Then, if this is your opinion, share what evidence leas you to think this. Is that your opinion, or are you just stating some nebulous comment about how "nobody knows ____."

I think all our GMs had certain sending guidelines, and if they wanted to exceed the guidelines, they had to convince Henry on the merits of it. I'm thinking all major signings had to be approved by upper management or Henry, himself. I think Bloom was handed one of the worst, if not the worst farms of any of the GMs under Henry. I think DD was handed about as much deadwood contracts as Bloom, maybe more, but he was allowed to spend like no other GM, including Theo. I'm curious how anyone can judge that someone is in over his head when he's handed a roster with 20 holes in it and $40M to spend on 1 year deals to fix it. He turned a team that was the worst Sox team I've ever seen to a near league champion. Yes, we were near not making the playoffs, too in '21, but I just don't get why so many feel so much negativity towards a GM who has yet to be given a real chance at making his mark on the team. The admirers see the progression the 40 man roster nad farm has made, and await the outcome of his major moves, until the judgement time is up. Judging the Betts, Beni, JBJ and Story deals, now, is premature. Sure, have an opinion based on what you feel is going to happen, and how all the deals and non deals will stack up against time, That's fine. I guess I'd just like a little more details on what exactly shows Bloom is over his head. I assume you think he got duped in the Betts deal, that 3 years of Beni will outweigh all the years from Cordero, Winckowski and others, and that Binelas & Hamilton will never make up for the net loss between Renfroe and JBJ. And, all of this outweighs the plus moves you've agreed he's made- like Whitlock & Pivetta and maybe German, Schreiber, Wacha, Hill, Strahm and others. IMO, the Story deal is the only major one he's made. It's hard to judge a GM based on that and a bunch of minor deals.

If you're talking about my man, Vince, it's widely believed he never actually said that statement. He was quoted as saying this... "“Winning is not a sometime thing…it's an all the time thing. You don't win once in a while…you don't do the right thing once in a while…you do them right all the time. Winning is a habit.” “Show me a good loser, and I'll show you a loser.”

It's not an opinion to say Bloom has only made one major signing, and even Story's deal is significantly less than Price's, and after figuring inflation, maybe even less than JD's deal. (I don't count the Bogey deal as large and long, because of the opt out, and it being "only" $20M per.) The Story deal is 2-3 months old. Sure, have an opinion on Bloom's ability to do well or poorly on big deals, but no matter what opinion anyone takes, it's premature.

You can choose to think Bloom could have spent way more but chose not to, just like I choose to believe he had a restricted spending limit pre 2020 and 2021. I think the purse strings were loosened for 2022, but even then, he had limits. Yes, "who knows," but I think it's pretty obvious, he had pretty strict spending guideline that were much lower than DD had. Choosing not to trade much of the farm away is probably his choice, but I think that was what Henry wanted, when he hired him. Besides, it's not worth trading big chunks of the farm away, unless the time is right. Apparently, some seem to think the time is always "right" and "now!"

Correct me, if I'm wrong, but looking at cots and the DD years, it looks like he was given budget room to make these signings/additions: 2016 $30M x 7 Price $20.6M x 4 Porcello (extended) $16M Ortiz (re-signed) $13M x 2 Kimbrel (via trade) $6.5M x 2 Chris Young 2017 Pretty much just carried over 2016 spending with no major salary additions. 2018 $22M x 5 JD (Continued paying of added/kept players like Pom $8.5M, Moreland $6.5M, Nunez $4M and others) In season additions of Eovaldi and Pearce 2019 Eovaldi extension at $17M x 4 and Pearce $6.25M x 1 (He extended Sale to begin in 2020) I count 4-5 major large and long contracts DD was allowed to make. Did I miss anything?

What big moves? Story is the only one, yet you have already determined Bloom is "in over his head." Look at the 2020 roster- top to bottom. Yes, it had Betts, Bogey, Devers, Beni and JBJ, along with Nate, Sale and Price. Look at the roster, now, including the bottom of the 40 man roster and the improved farm quality and quantity. Bloom has not been even close to perfect on his moderate to major moves, but what GM is? He was handed a 40 man roster with 15-20 holes in it, and a farm with very little recognizable high value players in it. He was given about $40M to spend before 2021, and the team did very well, considering the budget and starting point. He was given more to spend, this winter, but only 1 FA contract has ever been signed for more than 2 years. You think that's 100% Bloom's choice? You think he chose to not go over the tax line? On the Betts trade, how many teams were willing to trade value for a guy making $28M for 1 year of team control? Just the money alone knocked 20+ teams out of even bothering to make a phone call. I'd love to know what other offers were discussed, let alone actually made. My guess is less than 5. Verdugo looked like a nice get. Of course, equal value for one year of Betts is not going to be someone like Betts with 4-5 years of team control. The idea is that you get something good, and you use the money saved to try and gain equal value, piecemeal. $30M a year for 10 years is a lot of FA value to count on the net ledger. Maybe Verdugo continues to suck, the rest of his time, here. Maybe Downs and Wong give us nothing. The fact is, we lost 1 year of Betts, during a year where he would not have come close to helping us even make the playoffs. Just what value was his 2020 season to us? I was very upset we lost Betts. Hell, I think I suggested offering more than anyone else, but it looks like he was never going to stay here. I know you've suggested trading these guys earlier to get more return, but then you also seem to get upset when we don't keep them. It's hard to know what you think could have been done in a better way? Bloom could not have traded him "earlier," and unless we know what other offers were out there, just saying "we should have gotten more," or "we should have gotten pitching" is kind of hard to agree with, since it's near total speculation. Bloom was handed a totally different set of cards to deal with, and a highly restricted budget. It's not his Tampa learnings that has kept him from spending large and long. Before the 2021 season, he still had 7-10 significant holes to fill, that he didn't get filled with an even more restrictive 2020 season budget. He had $40M to spend on all those holes, and because he didn't sign anyone to $25M, some think he's not capable of doing it, or doing it well. Had he spent $30M of the $40M he had on 1 guy, we'd have had the 2020 roster all over again, but with one more good player. He did what he had to do. He started by building up roster depth to increase the chances a few more players prove they can stick around beyond 2020 and 2021, or be replaced. He basically signed placeholders to carry us to the next winter, in hopes we'd start seeing some help from the farm, and eventually an expanded spending budget, as some deadwood came off the books. This winter, we will lose some deadwood, but we will also be losing some top talent that will be hard to replace. For some of the guys, re-signing them will not actually give us the same expected results and production we have now. Then, at what cost? To me, this coming winter is when we will see the real Bloom. We'll all find out, if he's pretty good, just okay or something like "in over his head." This will be the first time he'll have the kind of power and room to wiggle, since becoming the GM. Yes, DD was handed some deadwood, too, but he was given a farm with many prospects other teams coveted, dearly. He was given a spending budget unprecedented in Sox GM history that spanned for about 3 years. When the cut off his spending, we saw 2019. I'm hopeful Bloom responds to the challenge and window of opportunity. He'll have some difficult and likely unpopular choices to make. It will be almost impossible to keep every fan happy, and if he does, we'll likely be $50M over the tax line, next year. Could or should he trade away 75% of our top prospects like DD did, and try and build a juggernaut 3 year window? Some here, seem to think that's the best plan, and count on henry to just spend his way through the aftermath. Not me. I like the path Henry and Bloom have chosen. It remains to be seen, if they can pull it off. Henry gave up on a similar strategy under Ben. Will he again? This winter will tell a big story.

Schreiber off waivers.

It's not $240M

It was a joke.

The Betts extension/signing is a totally different issue. You, yourself, was not for paying Betts what he wanted, so how can you now count his post-signing value and contract as something in the plus column? Something we lost? The fact is, we lost a season of Betts, which turned out to be a 60 game season, and we got 5 years of Verdugo plus a couple not-so-promising-anymore prospects. Grading the trade is difficult, because the results are not in for our return. The results are in on the Betts side of the ledger, though. Speculating on what else we might have gotten for Betts is fine, but I've heard nothing about other "what ifs."

Not really. You have to subtract about $16M for Player Benefits and the $16M for Price.