moonslav59

I’m called by my middle name as many are. I did not choose it.

My optimism on 2023 is not as high as it was pre-2022, but I think we should get better. Brining back Bogey and Wacha will take up a significant chunk of the winter spending budget, but we should have enough to improve on the 2022 JD, Hill, JBJ, Diekman and Strahm. I think we have already improved our 1B for 2023 with Casas and Hosmer. We should be able to equal or better our .750 DH OPS by using some sort of rotation or platoon which may include some from this group: Arroyo, Refsnyder, Casas or Hosmer (whoever is not at 1B), Dalbec, Cordero, Pham or E Valdez. It's not glitzy, but if we can improve at 1B/DH without spending a dime, we can then upgrade other slots with more resources: SS (Bogey or Swanson?) or 2B (K Wong?), if Story can play SS. RF (Nimmo?) SP 1 or 2 (via trade?) RP (too many to list) SP 3 or 4 (too many to list) Bloom has to hit on nearly all of these key 5 slots, but he'll have more money than he had in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

That's why I said "I get why the pen runs are more memorable." 2023 Pen Whitlock, Houck and Schreiber Addition Addition Taylor Barnes Crawford German That's 9 for 8 slots. On the farm: Kelly, Danisg, Wink, Seabold plus maybe converted minor league SP'ers Mata, Ward, Walter, Murphy, Santos and maybe Bazardo or Ort. I think we'll add one solid RP'er or two that I hope do better than Deik & Strahm.

He has trade value. Not much, but some.

Will Casas be our next Yankee killer?

I get why the pen runs are more memorable, but Hill and Wacha let up more and more per IP.

Sorry. My post was not clearly stated. My bad. Diekman had trade value, yes. We got the CWS to pay his full 2022-2023 contract while giving us our starting catcher for the next 2 years. If he had value, maybe Barnes (with some cash) might, too. (I went back and edited my previous post.)

Game 1 3 ER in 6 IP Wacha 1 ER in 3+ IP Pen 1-12 RISP Pen blamed for loss. Game 2 4 ER in 5 IP Hill 1 ER in 3 IP pen 1-5 RISP Pen blamed for loss. This has been going on all year. Sure, the pen did not help us win, but these are team losses, and many times, the pen was not the most responsible- only the most memorable, to many. I didn't even mention the defense and base-running blunders- all year.

I don't expect anything either, but you seemed to be surprised I had any hopes at all. I'd start by pencilling him in as our 7th or 8th RP'er, due to no options and his salary, but ST'ing may move him up. I doubt we DFA him, even if he has a s***** spring. They may try to IL him, if that happens. I also wonder, if Diekman had trade value, we might end up trading him (Barnes), with some cash, if we feel he will b e no help going forward. I don't think a 30 IP bad stretch by a pretty reliable RP over 5-6 years should be enough to lose all hope. As of now, he has to prove he does not belong on the 26- not the other way around.

At one point, Betts, Bogey, Devers, Beni, and others were on the farm. No Sox team has ever won without major contributions from the farm that was built up 3-6b years prior to their accomplishments and success. There is always a lag between building up a farm and seeing the results in the "here and now." Patiences is needed. If you jump the gun and trade them most away for the "here and now," and you end up with the 2020-2022 Sox, 3-6 years from now.

So, you have no hope for Barnes going forward?

Well, when you think about 2023, it's hard to use the here and now philosophy, especially with so many players from the now becoming FAs. Next year's team will be very different from this year's team. It kinda has to be. Again, I understand your point of view and that many feel like you do. I'm not sure why you keep having to say it, but I do appreciate your change in tone towards me. I'm trying hard to keep my tone more civil, too, towards you and others. Thanks.

Yes, Barnes is not on DD. Bloom extended him, so subtract his $9M, and we still have about $90M of 1.7 WAR production from a few of DD's carry-overs..

How about looking at 2022? Since August 11th, Barnes has pitched in 17 games (16.1 IP) 15 Hits 4 BB 18 Ks 1.65 ERA 2.01 FIP .558 OPS Against I'm not expecting this for 2023, but it does provide some hopes. You, apaprently have no hopes, at all. Forget the first half of 2021. He will not return to that, either, but he has a long history of being pretty good. He had 11 bad innings in 2021 and 20 IP to start 2022, and that's enough for you to lose every ounce of hope. Many very good RP'ers have bad 30 inning stretches in their careers and then go on to be very effective, afterwards. Do you doubt this? Do you really have no hopes for Barnes?

Read my words: "I don't think either Barnes or Bard are "reliable" I'd like both as my 7th or 8th RP'er- maybe 5th or 6th, if the top 4 are solid, but I have slight hopes for both in 2023.

One thing I find puzzling. You seem to rely heavily on what certain players are doing for their team, right now or this year and only this year, but when it came to Kike, last fall. You went out of your way to stress his past as a utility guy with a .240 BA. Why is Bard's past not important, but Kike's was, last year? I'm not trying to bust your balls. I'm just curious why the criteria changes for certain players. To me, Kike has had some very good years in the past 5 seasons. He's had some that were not so nice, but his defense has been steady, and he's been a plus one or more player since 2016. Bard was out of baseball for like 7 years, and sucked, last year. I'm not sure why he is viewed more reliable and highly, by you, than someone like Kike.

Well, you rely so heavily on the here and now, despite evidence that shows that adding guys based on only one good year in the last few years is a losing idea more often than not. I have no evidence based on 2022 to say Barnes is more reliable than Bard, so providing past numbers would just fall on deaf ears. (BTW, I don't think either Barnes or Bard are "reliable" for 2023, but both have significant hopes they can be. I'd be okay with saying maybe Bard has slightly better hopes, but to me, both have similar outlooks going forward.) Agree to disagree and move on.

How many games, this season, were Houck, Whitlock and Schreiber not on the IL or starting? I'd add piggy-backing, too, but technically that was pen work. I think the pen was okay to pretty good, when all 3 were in the pen. Giving all three clearly defined pen roles in 2023 and then sticking to the plan might create a very nice scenario, but this is assuming good health. I think we need to add a solid RP'er (closer or set up.) I'd like to add 2, but I'm not sure JH will allow a big enough budget to fill all our needs adequately, so we may need to settle on one really solid one or try something like Diekman & Strahm again, hopefully with better luck. I'd also like to add that with those 3, plus an additional solid Rp'er added, the rest of the pen should be okay in lesser roles than they were thrown into in 2022. I still have some hopes that... Barnes can return to his 2017-2020 norm Taylor can return from his injury Crawford, Wink or Seabold can fill a long/low leverage relief role German, Kelly or Danish can provide a plus as relief depth or possibly more. I have little faith in Ort, Bazardo, DHern and a few others, and no faith in Brasier, but maybe one can surprise us, or someone like Mata, Ward, Walter, Murphy or Santos can rise up and fill a key role as our 7th or 8th Rp'er. Relief Aces: Whitlock Houck Solid Set-up Schreiber Addition (Lh'd?) Key Roles Barnes Taylor The last 2 in the pen Crawford German Possibles Kelly, Danish, Wink, Seabold, Bazardo, Mata, Ward, Walter, Murphy, Santos, Ort, Brasiery, Politi

Yes, he was, but how much hope would you have for him, next year, with the Sox? There is a reason he was not on your list.

That's nearly a third of the 2022 player tax line budget. Add $22M for a 0.7 bWAR from JD and $9M for a -0.1 bWAR for Barnes and we're looking at about $100M for 1.6 WAR. That's close to half the player salary budget!

It's good to see you made an actual named suggestion. I do not think Bard is any more reliable than Barnes, and way less than Whitlock and Houck, despite their injury issues. I'd also put Schreiber ahead of Bard, but both have questionable futures.

This team has been bad- no doubt, at least when compared to top teams like the AL East is stacked with plus Houston. I guess I don't see what any tiny bit of optimism needs to be squashed, immediately and thoroughly. Did anyone really expect the farm system to be fully re-stocked in a year? Worse, does anyone think a re built farm should start infusing players onto the b ig club year one? We are now seeing the results of the farm built 3-6 years ago. Houck, Dalbec, Crawford, and recently Bello. Whitlock, Wink and recently German are the first Bloom "prospects" to come into the bigs, and they had to be acquired by trade or Rule 5 to get here so quickly. Years of low draft picks, penalties due to cheating and trading away a large chunk of the farm has come full circle. Expecting miracles is not realistic. Some seem to think the solution is to repeat the cycle, again. Trade promising prospects to get back to the glory days of 2026-2018. Some think JH has to just change his formula, which has brought us more rings than any point in Sox history over the last 100 years. All he has to do is spend more- maybe way more. Some think some sort of combination is needed, or that Bloom has to hit on 80-90% of his expenditures and additions, something I'm thinking no GM has ever done. This team is bad. There is no sugar coating that. I've watched the Astros more, this year, than ever before. It's easy to see we are far from their level. That being said, I don't think we are quite as bad as many feel we are or as our record indicates. We play the toughest schedule in MLB and are 18th in W-L%. We are a half game behind MN for 17th and 1.5 behind SFG for 16th. We are 3.5 games behind being in the top half of the league (CWS.) That's really not horrific, but it's scary when you figure we are on the cusp of losing some key players from those glory years: Bogey, Nate, JD and possibly Devers, the following season. I'm frustrated, too. I'm disappointed, too. I had much higher hopes for this team than they showed us. The massive injuries in key areas, like pitching, CF and 2B, seemingly all at once, taxed a system not yet deep enough to handle that strain. I still expected better, and I was probably unrealistic, too. Many of us were fooled by 2021's promise. We took that team and added Wacha, Schreiber, Refsnyder, Strahm and Hill, but somehow got worse. The JBJ trade hurt like hell, and to some, outweighed the gains by Wacha and the others I just listed. I hated the deal from the first second it was done. Many did. More mistakes were made than just that one, and Bloom and Cora deserve to be called out on each and every one. There is a lengthy list of grievances that are worthy of criticism- some more so than others, but in my opinion the main priority Bloom and Cora were given- was to rebuild the system- bottom up, while trying to maintain the perception and reality of being a somewhat competitive team. They failed in 2020, which was certainly understandable, given the budget JH laid on Bloom and Sale & ERod missing the whole season. They failed in 2022, when most of us have been expecting steady improvement from year-to year. Should we have? I think the vast majority of Sox fans, think yes, especially when the budget has been increasing since 2020's low point. I don't disagree, but I also see context is needed. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, here are just some of the significant contexts involved: 1. Aging stars in decline, but hard to trade or be given lesser roles. 2. A limited budget weighed down by pre-Bloom heft contracts giving back litte to no returns. 3. A homegrown farm that has given us just Houck, Dalbec and Crawford, since DD departed. A farm that, other than (big) maybe Bello, Mata and German, may not give us much in 2024, either. 4. A spate of injuries that defied anyone's worst expectations, and seemingly, all at once. 5. The rise of divisional foes that outpaced and rise we might have shown, had we been in another division. The O's have proven the are for real. The Jays did not reach expectations, but they have built up, mostly by costly additions, but certainly a lot of home grown talent, that were acquired through the drafts and IFA 3-6 years ago, I might add. They Rays remain the Rays, and the Yanks became a juggernaut for much of the season. 6. Expected continuation or improvements from pre-prime and prime players failed to materialize. Bogey, Devers and Vaz improved or stayed about the same as 2023, but nearly everyone else declined- some by a ton, an d not just because of missed time due to injuries- many sucked when healthy, too. Plawecki was never great on offense, but he dropped over 150 points in OPS *0 from career). Dalbec dropped over 150 points from 2021 and his career mark before '22. JD dropped 100 points from '21 and 150 from his previous 4 yrs w BOS. Dugo dropped 40 points from 2021 and 60 from his previous career mark. The RBI drops by Bogey and JD, when we really needed more, hurt, too. While Cordero & Arroyo may have done better off the bench than before, it wasn't enough. Nate dropped off. Barnes dropped off. Whitlock and Houck did fine, but injuries and other factors negated any gains. Sawamura, Davis and Robles declined so much, they are no longer here. Sale was Sale, again. It was a major confluence of bad luck and bad play that seemed to feed off each other, giving us one of the worst seasons, based on prior expectations since 2019- maybe even more than 2019. I'm not happy at all with the 2022 Sox, but I do think there is reason to be optimistic going forward. The farm looks stronger- much stronger. The 40 man roster is much deeper than 2020 and even 2021. Yes, we lose some key players, but we also lose Price's money and should be able to improve on JD's 2022 numbers with his $22M. It won't be easy to replace the pre-2022 Nate, but $17M should be able to more than replace the 2022 Nate. Replacing Wacha, Bogey and even Hill and Strahm at their contractual levels will be harder and the key to our hopes in 2024. Bringing Bogey back just keeps us even, and maybe for a just a couple more years, before he may start declining. Brining Wacha back will cost way more and may not get us the same 2022 results. It's not going to be an easy off season for Bloom & Co, but he should have a budget nearly double anyone he has had to date (counting the Kike extension.) I'm cautiously optimistic we will reach glory again. Hopefully in 2023 but more likely afterwards.

Only if you choose to blame them for 50. Hill and the defense did worse tonight.

He might for us.

Lower?