You never know, but my guess is he's traded.
We can assume we open 10 slots via free agency, although some may be back:
Bogey, JD, Eovaldi, Kike, Vaz, Wacha, Hill, Strahm, Plawecki, Robles
3 Option:
JBJ: ($8M buy out) $12M
Paxton: $4M player option or $13M team option
Sawamura: ($600K buy out) $3M team option
10 Others who may be off the 40 man by 2024 (trade or DFA):
Barnes, Brasier, DHern, Valdez, Arroyo, Diekman, Groome, Downs, Danish, Norwood
That's probably 14-18 possible open slots.
Add certain 6 Rule 5s:
Casas, German, WGonzalez, Murphy, Rafaela, B Walter
Possible 14 Rule 5s, but more likely 2-3, at most:
Fitzy, Feltman, Cottam, Granberg, Hamilton, Jimenez, Koss, Northcut, Ort, Paulino, VSantos, NSong, J Wallace, TWard
Let's say 8 Rule 5 additions.
That leaves 6-10 Free Agent signings.
I guess that's the long way of saying, I can see Down making it on the 40 over some of the other guys listed here, and we don't know how many FAs we'll sign.