moonslav59

Depends what you ask the guy to look for. If the priority given to the head of baseball operations was to greatly improve the farm while getting a better handle on the ongoing budget, what would the determination be? If you asked who is most responsible for the mess of 2022, one might come up with the name DD, but surely Bloom, Cora and the team leaders and veteran players would be mentioned significantly, too.

On paper, the team improved for 2023 at the deadline. Considering the idea of being sellers was probably (or in my opinion certainly) the right thing to do, I'd say he walked the line well. Does anyone really think trading Vaz is the reason we will miss the playoffs? I'd say the play from the players we didn't trade (JD, Bogey, Nate, Strahm) is more of the reason we have sucked since the deadline.

I'm still a big Sale fan, and I think he can pitch like an ace again, if he can just stay on the mound. However, I do not think he is reliable enough to pencil in as our 30+ start #1 or ace starter for 2023. I also would not pencil in Paxton as our 25+ starter #2 or 3 for next year. Combined, I might plan on them being our #2 starter for the full season, and hope like hell they both stay healthy, or at worse, they are hurt at different times, so we have one at all times. I've liked Pivetta since we got him, but I'd love to pencil him in as our durable, capable and dependable 5th starter, but I know he will more likely be our #3 or 4. I get the argument about using Whitlock as a SP'er, next year. I'd love to keep him in the role that has worked very well, but I understand the value of a 150+ IP starter outweighs that of an 80-100 IP longman/set-up man. So, maybe my template for 2023's rotation looks like this: 1. ___ addition ____ 2. Sale + Paxton 3. Whitlock 4. Pivetta 5. Crawford/Winckowski/Bell/Mata/Seabold/Murphy/Ward (the best holds the spot) I'd like to see us add a number 3/4 type or some veteran depth, but with so many decent looking prospects, I think Bloom holds the bottom 1-2 rotation slots open for them to fill- like it or not.

Almost as badly as the Sox over the past few weeks.

I never said "gone," and I happen to think he will pitch very well, next year, if healthy. I just questioned your term "not diminished," and yes, the sample size is small for both of us to be saying yes it is or no it isn't. Yes, 2019 was before the surgery, so I'm fine not counting that year, and what is left is slim pickings. I don't know about spin rate, so if it has not diminished in his 5 IP sample size, I'll take your word for it but still wonder how much meaning that has.

I questioned your term "diminished." Yes, Sale was so great, he can be diminished and still an ace, but he seems to have diminished by more than just a little in a few other areas- like BB%, Hard hit%, WHIP and a sharp decline in soft hit%. That worries me. I still have hopes, but I do think he has shown a diminishment since 2018, and it's not by a little bit. The guy was fantastic from 2017-2018. It's hard to keep that up, but he has not been the '17-'18 Sale.

BTW, he did not pitch 95 both games.

Can he pitch 95 over 70+ pitches over a few games?

Indeed. he has to prove he can hit at higher levels, before he even gets a MLB look. His .295 BA may not transfer well to the bigs, but so far, he looks like he can hit and is not all about walks, despite Larry's emphasis on BBs. 24 HRs in 322 ABs shows he might make in the bigs, even if his BA drops significantly. If he can keep his OBP over .340 (It's .460, now) and hit over .275, or hit over 30 bombs, or hit .250 with 25+ bombs, he can be a good DH in MLB. It's a long way away. Maybe he can play 1B, too.

Lot's of pitchers look like Cy Young over a 9 game stretch. Why do those 9 games count more than the others? When Sale was his old self, almost all his 9 game stretches looked similar to those.

No, I took all his innings from 2019-2022 and totaled them up. It's way more than 5 IP. Seriously, It is. Now, I can't use 5 IP as a measure, but you can say his velocity is the same based on 5 IP?

Yes, he has lost some velocity. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/chris-sale/10603/graphs?pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2018&end=2022&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax= I don't know about spin rate. His control is down as his BB% has risen a lot after 2018. Isn't that part of "his stuff," too? (It's 6.1% since 2019.) His WHIP is way up. Is that just bad luck? (It's 1.14 since 2019.) If his stuff is still as good as before, why has the hard hit% against him gone up so much? 29.7% 2017 26.5% 2018 36.0% 2019 23.5% 2021 38.9% 2022 It's 33.1% since 2019. Medium hit is at 48.6%. Both are middle of the pack among Sox pitchers with 50+ IP since 2019. His Soft Hit% is 12 worst out of 29. I'm not sure why he walking more, and hitters are teeing up on him more, if his stuff is the same.

But why only mention the bad ones, although the Vaz trade may end up being a winner beyond the 2 months we missed during a lost season? Pham- plus McGuire- plus, even if just by subtracting Diekman and his contract for '22 and '23. Hosmer- jury out Last winter: JBJ- Horrific Diekman signing- Horrific (see trade above) Story- so far, pretty bad, thanks in most part to his injury. Hill signing- meh Strahm signing- okay to good Refsnyder addition- big plus Schreiber addition- big plus Wacha- our clear ace for $7M When you say "just another," it implies most moves have been bad. At worst, Bloom's winter moves have been 50-50.

I didn't forget!

We keep hearing, "last year's stats don't count- only this year," yet Bogey is still being praised. BTW, I'm not trying to bash Bogey. I hope we can bring him back, but I think I'm not the only one picking and choosing who to pick on and who to defend when thinking they are being picked on, too much. Our leaders have not been leading to well, this year- before and after the deadline that took away the irreplaceable Vaz.

He might still be very good, and the fact that he looks really good for an inning or outing here and there, when he's healthy does not mean his stuff has not diminished. When pitching since 2018, he has not been the same Chris Sale. Every pitcher looks good or great for an inning or outing every so often. I'm not saying he can't or won't return to or close to his former self, but he hasn't, so far.

Your aunt does have balls.

The returning big gun vets have all but disappeared: Last 7 days: .762 JD .654 Bogey .444 Dalbec .366 Devers The Calvary: .783 Pham .661 Hosmer .429 McGuire The others: 5.000 Franchy 1.714 Refsnyder 1.000 Plawecki .852 Dugo (a returning vet, but he messes up my chart) .815 Arroyo .688 Kike .490 Duran Last 14 days (Not on the 26 right before the deadline) 5.000 Franchy 1.714 Refsnyder 1.014 Dugo .903 Pham .839 Arroyo .699 McGuire .688 Kike .630 Duran .619 JD .572 Bogey .548 Hosmer .529 Dalbec .500 Ja Davis .478 Plawecki .467 Devers

Blasphemy! We are talking about our beloved team leader, here. Sham on you.

Only 1 of our top 5 returning vets improved, and Devers is now seriously slumping. Only 3 of our top 9 returning vets improved (Devers, Vaz and Arroyo) Only 5 of our top returning 13 vets improved. So, 5-8 with returning vets. We lost bigtime in RF (Renfroe to JBJ). We gained on Story replacing Marwin, Chavis and Iggy at 2B We probably about broke even on Refsnyder, Pham & Hosmer replacing Schwarber & Santana in the OF, 1B and DH. So, maybe 1-1-1 at the replacement positions. 6-9-1 overall - not counting pitching.

The OPS+ numbers are good ones to use, as they factor in the league wide decline in OPS from 2021 to 2022. Sorry, if this is too complicated or fancy for the anti-metric crowd, but here is a look at the OPS+ disparities from 2021 to 2022 (Note the PA differentials, as well, and the 2022 season is not over.) Listed in order of most PAs in 2021: 1. 134 Devers (664)>149 (458 #3)) 2. 128 JD M (634)> 117 (450 #4) 3. 107 Dugo (604)> 102 (480 #2) 4. 129 Bogey (603)> 126 (487 #1 5. 108 Kike (585)> 72 (259 #9) 6. (Renfroe: see below) 7. 77 Vazquez (498)> 110 (318 #6) 8. 107 Dalbec (453)> 78 (317 #7) 9. (Marwin: see below) 10. 103 Arroyo (181)> 109 (208 #11) 11. 98 Plawecki (173)> 41 (146 #13) 12. (Schwarber: see below) 13. 34 Cordero (136)> 89 (245 #10) 14. (Santana: see below) 15. 53 Duran (112)> 81 (206 #12) 16 & 18. (Chavis & Iggy: see below) 16. 70 Arauz (75)>> -100 (12 #22) 19. 120 Shaw (48)> -100 (19 #21) Replaced Players: (First number is PA Ranking in 2021) 5. 114 Renfroe (572)>> 61 JBJ (290 #8) 8. 53 Marwin (271)>> 97 Story (342 #5) 11. 155 Schwarber (168)>> 158 Refsnyder (116 #14) 13. 58 Santana (127)>>121 Pham (76 #15.) & 73 Hosmer (45 #16) 15. 43 Chavis (82)>>-6 Sanchez (44 #17) 17. 144 Iggy (64)>> 18 Downs (41 #18)

He pitched okay in the ALCS but that was outweighed by his ALDS game. 9 IP 8 ER in the post season, last year. Also, from 2019-2022, his numbers have been good, but not ace-like. 2019-2022 4.09 ERA (117 ERA+) 3.43 FIP 1.140 WHIP 5.50 K/BB 2017-2018 w Sox 2.56 ERA (175 ERA+) 2.25 FIP 0.924 WHIP 7.08 K/BB w CWS 3.00 ERA (135 ERA+) 1.065 WHIP 4.78 K/BB I'm not doubting Sale can and has pitched well, when healthy, after 2018, but not like an ace.

There were hopes Paxton would arrive in time, this year, to give us a final push. Now, assuming we take the $13M x 2 option, we will be essentially be paying him $32M/2, which is about Nate money but for half the years. I think the guy can be a big help, but if we count on anything from Sale or Paxton, next year, we are setting ourselves up for something unpleasant. We need a solid #1 or 2, or IMO, we will be punting 2023 away. Maybe we can get lucky, but even if Paxton and Sale come back strong, next year, having an ace doesn't cause any sort of bottleneck. It would likely mean Houck & Whitlock stay in the pen and Pivetta becomes our 4th or 5th starter, not our 2 or 3.

Yup. Honest question: do we make the playoffs, if Bogey, JD, Nate & Kike give us close to what we expected? They were all keys to our 2021 success and only JD is post-prime.

Fire Bloom & Cora, NOW!