moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Yes, I forgot him. He's apparently not Rule 5 but a minor league FA. I went back and added him.
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We'd likely have had to give up at least one from Mayer, Casas or Bello plus one from Bleis, Rafaela, Mata & Yorke- maybe 2.
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If we counted prospects who graduated, this year- Bello, Crawford, Winckowski & Duran- maybe this might be my end of season Top 40 Rankings: 1. Bello 2. Mayer 3. Casas 4. Bleis 5. Rafaela 6. Mata 7. Romero 8. Yorke 9. Walter 10. Paulino 11. Anthony 12. Perales 13. Wong 14. W Gonzalez 15. E Valdez 16. M Lugo 17. T Ward 18. B Jordan 19. B Bonaci 20. N Hickey 21. N Kavadas 22. C Murphy 23. W Abreu 24. C Crawford 25. C Murphy 26. E Rodriguez-Cruz 27. Z Kelly 28. F German 29. J Winckowski 30. J Duran 31. C Coffey 32. S Drohan 33. B Brannon 34. A Binelas 35. D Hamilton 36. R Hernandez 37. J Paez 38. E Bazardo 39. T Uberstine 40. Downs & Seabold
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The Rays did extend Longoria in April of his rookie year, but I'm not sure the Guardians signed young players that early.
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Sounds good, but most of the best of the best get 4+ years.
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The End of 2022 Forty Man Roster (Assuming no options, extensions or re-signings, but all arbs are listed) In order of seniority on 40 Man (Red=Bubble) Barnes Sale Devers (arb 3 of 3) Brasier (3 of 3) Taylor (2 of 4) DHern Dalbec Verdugo (2 of 3) Pivetta (2 of 3) Arroyo (2 of 3) Houck Mata Wong Seabold Whitlock Kike RHern Duran Crawford Downs Winckowski Bello Story Danish Cordero (2 of 3) Schreiber Refsnyder (2 of 3) Ort McGuire (1 of 3) Hosmer Kelly Bazardo Casas Almonte (1 of 3) Chang (1 of 3) German McGee That's 37 players plus maybe 4 Rule 5'ers... Rule 5: Wilyer Abreu Ceddanne Rafaela Brandon Walter Thaddeus Ward Enmanuel Valdez (Minor League FA) Not Likely to be protected or drafted: Murphy Hamilton Paulino Wikelman V Santos J Wallace Bonaci Cottam Granberg
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2023 Red Sox Projected Lux Tax Budget ($Millions)- Not counting Free Agents 25.6 Sale 23.3 Story 10.0 Kike 9.4 Barnes 4.7 Whitlock 73.0 TOTAL Under Contract Arbs (MLBTR Projections): 16.9 Devers 3rd or 3 6.9 Verdugo 2nd of 3 5.9 Pivetta 2nd of 3 2.3 Brasier 3rd of 3 (non tender?) 2.2 Arroyo 2nd of 4 1.6 Refsnyder 2nd of 3 1.5 Cordero 2nd of 3 (non tender?) 1.3 McGuire 2nd of 3 1.1 Taylor 2nd of 4 .90 Almonte 1st of 3 .90 Chang 1st of 3 ~41.0 TOTAL Arb Estimates (assuming no non tenders) TOTAL: $114M ~$2.3 40 Man Players in Minors ~$1.7 0-3 yr Bonus Pool ~$16 Player Benefits $134M Lux Tax Total Before any additions Lux Tax Line for 2023: $232M $98M remaining to spend to reach the Lux Tax line. Options/Buy Outs: $20M x 3 Bogey (Player Option) Will likely be offered a QO, if not extended. $13M x 2 Paxton (Paxton has $4M player option) no Buy Out. $12M Pham w $1.5M buyout $8M JBJ Buyout (does not count on ’23 tax line) Possible QO: Eovaldi (maybe), Wacha (not likely), JD (very unlikely)
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Woo did not have many base-stealers, but our system had some top SB players and several with great SB/CS ratios. 5. Hamilton 70 (8 CS) 9. Ferguson 61 (5) BOS & SDP 43. Rosier 40 (5) BOS & SDP 90. Abreu 31 (3) BOS & HOU 17-0 Mayer 20-1 Sikes 22-2 Tyler Miller 27-5 Paulino 28-6 Bonaci 28-7 Rafaela 21-5 McDonough 20-7 M Lugo 20-9 Jimenez
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Okay. Looks like we keep Hosmer or can trade him, easily.
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He did trade for Abreu and Ferguson- both walk a lot and steal bases. He traded for Hamilton, too. Our farm is about as fast as I ever remember it being. Minor League Leaderboards BB 2. Abreu 114 5. Kavadas 102 10. Ferguson 96 SB 5. Hamilton 70 (8 CS) 9. Ferguson 61 (5) 43. Rosier 40 (5) 90. Abreu 31 (3) All these guys were added in the last year.
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I would think we still pay the $8M buyout.
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I'm talking about the apparent $5.8M x 3 someone said we will be paying. If we trade him, no team would want that. It has nothing to do with the lux tax for most teams.
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I'm not sure cots can be trusted, anymore. Too bad. They has a good rep for a long time, I was under the impression Hosmer will cost the league min for the remainder of his contract, which I believe is 3 more years. If not, then we'd be on the hook for the difference, if we DFA him. I'm not sure anyone would take him at $5.8M x 3. I think many sites missed the Pham option fiasco, so cots may not be alone on that one. On your $118M number. I'm not sure where you got that amount. I have us near $60M to spend, after the Kike $10M signing, assuming we spend to just under the tax line.
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Certainly the drop in SLG is troublesome, but the whole league has declined- though not as much as he has. .418 in 2020 .411 in 2021 .395 in 2022 I wish they has a SLG+ stat, but here are Bogey's OPS+ numbers: 135 in '18 139 in '19 128 in '20 129 in '21 131 in '22 Remarkably consistent and very good.
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Agreed. Maybe one GM might go $160/6 or $175/7, but I think $150M/6 is about right.
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Most of us thought the opening day roster was competitive enough to make the playoffs, "while we were rebuilding." I agree, once it became clear that were were not going to win a ring, this year, and to me, it was a long shot to even make the playoffs before the deadline, we should have done, at minimum, just enough to reset the tax. Keeping the fans from becoming irate was the tightrope walk, but I think it was worth the try, and for me, this is NOT hindsight talk. Probably, trading everyone not nailed down was the best move. Bite the bullet on fan disgust, but then produce a winning team in 2023 and a system set up to keep winning, and the fans would shut up real quickly- like they did in 2013.
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I'm not looking to trade Bello, either.
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Sounds about right. We'd probably have to have given Mayer and Rafaela plus more. I'd have probably said no, despite the friendly extension.
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Hard to know what we'd have had to give him, but I like the extension numbers. 3 of Seattle's top 5 might not mean 3 of our top 5, but if it was Rafaela, Yorke & Mata, I might say yes.
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If they can extend Castillo, it will be even better. I always hoped we'd get him.
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Being that he is free and gives a veteran presence to a young, "rebuilding team," I think many of the cheap teams might take a freebie like Hosmer. Maybe, not.
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I don't think Vaz and Plawecki were ever part of our longer term plans, and maybe for good reason. Word is, they are looking to add a catcher to the mix.
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It seems like the Marlins are the best fit for us to make a trade- perhaps to fill 2-3 slots, but it all comes down to how they value our prospects. They have a young SS that is highly rated, so Mayer may not be who they want. They may want Bleis over Rafaela. They may insist on Bello. They may prefer Mata or Walter over Wikelman. They may laugh at a Duran offer or want him, assuming we take Soler or Garcia as a salary dump. They may want Hosmer or someone else we value lowly- like Wink, Seabold or Dalbec.
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I meant more birthdays, this month.
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Maybe they just don't value Bogey like we do. They have a long history of letting some of our stars and semi-stars go when their control years end. They've been right more than wrong in this area, but this does reek of the Lester fiasco. They could have at least saved face by offering about what they gave Story, but maybe they don't even feel he's worth that.
