moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Duran and Wink (or Chris Murphy) for Sewald & Murphy
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BTV Catcher Values 6.5 McGuire (Diekman is at -4.0) 3.0 Murphy 2.5 RHern 1.9 Wong 1.7 Hickey (pretty far away) 1.4 Lira 1.3 Marcano 0.2 Cottam
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There were reasons we took a flyer on both of these guys. Bloom & Co. saw some hopes in both. It looked like two swings and misses, but now, in hindsight, it looks like maybe- just maybe- it was just his timing that was off. (He did give Perez two seperate chances.)
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No organization thinks they can't add pitching depth, but with 40 man roster issues, it's not likely Wink or Seabold are better than your bottom of the 40 pitcher. How about McDonough? I'd give Duran, who has twice the BTV value.
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That was one factor in the weakening of the farm system.
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It was also easier to work the system by acquiring more and more comp picks, that actually were good draft picks. In 2011, the Rays had 10 picks in the top 60 and 12 picks in the top 89. That was the year BOS had 4 in the top 40 (Barnes, Swihart, Owens & JBJ). Theo was pretty good at this. 5 picks in the top 47 in '05 (Jake, Buch, Lowrie) 4 in top 44 in '06 (Bard) 3 in top 39 in '10 (Ranaudo, Brentz) 4 in top 40 in '11 (see above)
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I might give 'em both, but I don't know much about Murphy and his intangibles as a catcher.
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Indeed, that could be it. It could also be good instincts but just bad luck with timing.
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Give 'em a choice: Wink or Seabold
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A couple near misses on Bloom's account: Jeffery Springs Bloom trades Sam Travis for Springs in JAN '20 7.08 ERA/ 1.82 WHIP Bloom trades Springs with Mazza for Ronald Hernandez 2 years w TBR 180 IP 2.70 ERA/ 1.08 WHIP Martin Perez Bloom signs Perez Dec 2019 4.50 ERA/ 1.34 WHIP Bloom signs Perez FEB 2021 4.74 ERA/ 1.51 WHIP Perez signs with Rangers MAR 2022 2.89 ERA/ 1.26 WHIP
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It's interesting to see the updated values given by BTV on the players Bloom has acquired via trade, waivers, minor league FA and Rule 5: 34.4 Whitlock (Rule 5) 24.2 Schreiber (Waivers) 6.5 McGuire (Diekman -4.5 now) 3.3 Winckowski, 0.5 Gambrell, 0.2 F Valdez, 0.1 L de la Rosa, 0.0 Cordero (Beni n/a) 3.1 Hosmer, 1.8 Rosier, 1.2 Ferguson (Groome 3.5) 2.9 Seabold & 0.9 Pivetta (Workman n/a & Hembree n/a) 2.6 Verdugo, 1.9 Wong & 1.1 Downs (Betts n/a) 2.5 R Hernandez (Mazza n/a & Springs 17.5) 2.1 Abreu & 1.2 E Valdez(Vazquez n/a) 1.6 Hamilton & 1.2 Binelas (Renfroe -0.2) 1.4 German (w Ottavino for PTBNL- n/a) 1.1 Z Kelly (minor league FA) 0.2 Potts (Moreland n/a) 0.1 Ort (minor league Rule 5) 0.0 Danish (minor league FA) -0.6 Arroyo (Waivers)
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How about some prospects above A? Casas, Rafaela, Wikelman & Duran for Lopez, Cabrera, Berti & Cooper
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We could throw in... ... wait for it... Duran!
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They would get my vote as the best of the non top 4. I think the Astros win it all.
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If we extend Bogey, this trade would really help us- short and long term. 2 rotation slots filled RF or 4th OF'er filled Plenty of budget space left over to address RF, the pen and maybe even catcher and a Devers extension.
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No. You have to play the games, and some of the odds makers don't see it my way, either- some do: Fangraphs: 19.6% HOU 16.4% ATL 16.2% LAA 11.7% SDP 11.2% NYY 11.1% PHI 9.6% SEA 4.2% CLE SB Nation shows the odds are 2 times better for the top 4 teams, though... +310 LAD +380 HOU +500 ATL +500 NYY +1000 SDP +1100 PHI +1300 SEA +1800 CLE
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Apparently Mayer for Lopez & Cabrera would be a Sox overpay. Mayer for Lopez, Cabrera and Berti is a go.
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I don't see any of the WC advancers as having even half the chance as the top 4 teams.
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I didn't mean Rafaela and scrubs. I meant something like Rafaela, Yorke, Wikelman and Jordan, which BTV accepts. They'd likely want Rafaela, Bleis & Wikelman I like Cabrera, too, but he's no ace. BTV values 140 Alcantara 5 yrs 39 Lopez 2 yrs 37 Rogers 4 yrs 27 Luzardo 3 yrs 20 Garrett 5 yrs 7 Cabrera 5 yrs Sox Values 55 Mayer 39 Casas 34 Whitlock 33 Bello 19 Houck 15 Rafaela 14 Bleis 12 Yorke 9 Romero 7 Wikelman & Coffey 6 Walter, Lugo & Duran 5 Jordan
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Indeed, and if the idea is to reset in 2024, starting in 2023 might save $1-2M off the lux tax line after 2023.
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You don't have to sell me on the mistake trade for JBJ. I was the wagon driver. As much as you and I did not have faith in Duran, he was the 4th OF'er- not RH'd but nevertheless a plan. Another point, all year I felt like Cora had a great reluctance to play Dugo in RF. I chalked that up as not thinking he could do it well enough to put him back there. Then, later they did. I'd have rather had Cordero in LF than 1B, and Dugo in RF rather than Duran anywhere. Not that this was a credible plan, either, but it seems better than what they tried.
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Of those 4, I'd give the Yanks the least chance of winning it all.
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I'd trade for a #1/2 starter and try to bring back Wacha. If we move Whitlock to the rotation, maybe we bring back Hill not Wacha. I'd rather we add Pablo Lopez and bring Wacha back and keep Houck and Whitlock in the pen. Add Fulmer or Montero to the pen, too. That should leave enough to sign Bogey or Swanson plus Nimmo and maybe some depth (C, DH, pen).
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I'm not so sure they go large at catcher. I think they just add someone like McGuire or Stallings, and have Wong in AAA as depth. Pitching, SS, Pitching, RF, Pitching are out top priority. If we have anything left over... more pitching.
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The Raffy extension could begin in 2024, if the plan is to reset in 2023.
