moonslav59

It's interesting to see the updated values given by BTV on the players Bloom has acquired via trade, waivers, minor league FA and Rule 5: 34.4 Whitlock (Rule 5) 24.2 Schreiber (Waivers) 6.5 McGuire (Diekman -4.5 now) 3.3 Winckowski, 0.5 Gambrell, 0.2 F Valdez, 0.1 L de la Rosa, 0.0 Cordero (Beni n/a) 3.1 Hosmer, 1.8 Rosier, 1.2 Ferguson (Groome 3.5) 2.9 Seabold & 0.9 Pivetta (Workman n/a & Hembree n/a) 2.6 Verdugo, 1.9 Wong & 1.1 Downs (Betts n/a) 2.5 R Hernandez (Mazza n/a & Springs 17.5) 2.1 Abreu & 1.2 E Valdez(Vazquez n/a) 1.6 Hamilton & 1.2 Binelas (Renfroe -0.2) 1.4 German (w Ottavino for PTBNL- n/a) 1.1 Z Kelly (minor league FA) 0.2 Potts (Moreland n/a) 0.1 Ort (minor league Rule 5) 0.0 Danish (minor league FA) -0.6 Arroyo (Waivers)

How about some prospects above A? Casas, Rafaela, Wikelman & Duran for Lopez, Cabrera, Berti & Cooper

We could throw in... ... wait for it... Duran!

They would get my vote as the best of the non top 4. I think the Astros win it all.

If we extend Bogey, this trade would really help us- short and long term. 2 rotation slots filled RF or 4th OF'er filled Plenty of budget space left over to address RF, the pen and maybe even catcher and a Devers extension.

No. You have to play the games, and some of the odds makers don't see it my way, either- some do: Fangraphs: 19.6% HOU 16.4% ATL 16.2% LAA 11.7% SDP 11.2% NYY 11.1% PHI 9.6% SEA 4.2% CLE SB Nation shows the odds are 2 times better for the top 4 teams, though... +310 LAD +380 HOU +500 ATL +500 NYY +1000 SDP +1100 PHI +1300 SEA +1800 CLE

Apparently Mayer for Lopez & Cabrera would be a Sox overpay. Mayer for Lopez, Cabrera and Berti is a go.

I don't see any of the WC advancers as having even half the chance as the top 4 teams.

I didn't mean Rafaela and scrubs. I meant something like Rafaela, Yorke, Wikelman and Jordan, which BTV accepts. They'd likely want Rafaela, Bleis & Wikelman I like Cabrera, too, but he's no ace. BTV values 140 Alcantara 5 yrs 39 Lopez 2 yrs 37 Rogers 4 yrs 27 Luzardo 3 yrs 20 Garrett 5 yrs 7 Cabrera 5 yrs Sox Values 55 Mayer 39 Casas 34 Whitlock 33 Bello 19 Houck 15 Rafaela 14 Bleis 12 Yorke 9 Romero 7 Wikelman & Coffey 6 Walter, Lugo & Duran 5 Jordan

Indeed, and if the idea is to reset in 2024, starting in 2023 might save $1-2M off the lux tax line after 2023.

You don't have to sell me on the mistake trade for JBJ. I was the wagon driver. As much as you and I did not have faith in Duran, he was the 4th OF'er- not RH'd but nevertheless a plan. Another point, all year I felt like Cora had a great reluctance to play Dugo in RF. I chalked that up as not thinking he could do it well enough to put him back there. Then, later they did. I'd have rather had Cordero in LF than 1B, and Dugo in RF rather than Duran anywhere. Not that this was a credible plan, either, but it seems better than what they tried.

Of those 4, I'd give the Yanks the least chance of winning it all.

I'd trade for a #1/2 starter and try to bring back Wacha. If we move Whitlock to the rotation, maybe we bring back Hill not Wacha. I'd rather we add Pablo Lopez and bring Wacha back and keep Houck and Whitlock in the pen. Add Fulmer or Montero to the pen, too. That should leave enough to sign Bogey or Swanson plus Nimmo and maybe some depth (C, DH, pen).

I'm not so sure they go large at catcher. I think they just add someone like McGuire or Stallings, and have Wong in AAA as depth. Pitching, SS, Pitching, RF, Pitching are out top priority. If we have anything left over... more pitching.

The Raffy extension could begin in 2024, if the plan is to reset in 2023.

I'd trade for Pablo Lopez. (Maybe Rafaela and a couple lower prospects) Sign Nimmo, Swanson, Wacha, Fulmer, Montero and Strahm. I'd work on extending Devers.

No. I'm assuming Whitlock, Houck or the __FA__ listed in the SP/RP section will be in the rotation.

GMs constantly have to weigh one need vs another. Most know they have left some slots in higher need than they want. Bloom made a mistake, here.

The 2 of 7 players highlighted in Red that should be traded or DFA'd seem to be much better than the bubble players of 2020, 2021 and pre-2022. I have us adding 6 free agents or players via trade(s.) It could be more. It might be less. We may try to find someone will to take 2-3 forty man roster players for 1 and improve the quality of the 40 man while not needing to DFA any of the players in red. The problem is, many teams value their 40 players and are looking to do the same. More likely, and 2 or 3 for 1 trade will involve promising prospects not needed to be added to the 40 man roster. I think our farm is now strong enough to make one trade like that, but I'm not sure Bloom & Co. see this as being the right time to pull off a trade like that, but adding a quality pitcher without adding much to the budget would go a long way at improving the 2023 team by allowing us to spend more on other high need areas. If the pitcher we acquire has 3+ years of team control, or acn be extended, then the trade could help in 2023 AND beyond. Maybe, I'mj ust dreaming.

To me, I think this is who should be on our 40 man roster, next year: (42 players listed: red are bubble) SP: __FA__, Sale, Pivetta, Bello, Mata, TWard (AAA), Walter (AAA) SP/RP: Whitlock, Houck, __FA__, Crawford, Winckowski (AAA), Seabold (AAA) RP: __FA__, Schreiber, __FA__, Barnes, Taylor, Kelly, German, Danish (AAA), Bazardo (AAA) C: McGuire, Wong, RHern (AAA) 1B: Casas 1B/DH: Dalbec, Hosmer 2B: Story, Arroyo, EValdez (AAA) 3B: Devers SS: __FA__, Downs (AAA) LF: Dugo, Almonte (AAA), Duran (AAA) CF: Kike, Rafaela (AAA) RF: __FA__, Refsnyder, Abreu (AAA) Trade or DFA: DHern, McGee, Chang, Ort, Brasier

I think Franchy will be gone, despite our lack of OF minor league depth that is ML ready. I think Duran and Downs will be given another year in AAA to show growth or be traded or cut loose. Even if they do well, I will not be excited seeing them get another chance at the ML level with the Sox. Maybe they can build trade value by doing very well in AAA. I'd also be fine saying good bye to Brasier, Dhern, Change, Ort, McGee and Almonte. We certainly have enough room to add 5-7 FAs and 4-5 Rule 5'ers plus EValdez, this winter without crying over a DFA or two.

T-Ward could be a very pleasant surprise to the 2023 Sox. Mata, too. The sheer number of ML ready or very near ML ready prospects for 2023 is astounding. Sure, many have little promise, but if just 1 of the 5-6 lower promise players succeed along with 1-2 from the middle 5 and 2-3 from the better 5-6 group, we might be looking at a solid 2023 roster by mid season. Bello Casas Mata (mid '23) Ward (mid-late '23) Rafaela (mid-late '23) Walter (mid-late '23) Wong Crawford Kelly German EValdez (mid '23) Winckowski Seabold Downs Murphy (mid-late '23) Duran (post prospect)

I think saying adding a minor league FA, so we don't count on Duran is an acceptable use of the Butterfly Man's name.

The Plan B would be a player signed to a minor league contract- perhaps with a date to be added to the ML roster or be released. We can't afford a RF'er and 4/5th OF'er on the budget. I doubt we go with 5 OF'ers on the 26, unless one DH's a big chunk of the time. Maybe Nimmo as RF and Mancini as DH/ corner OF and 1B depth, but even then, where do we go light, so we can afford those two?

I think the plan was to have Story fill the RH'd line-up gap lost with the Renfroe trade, and we'd just suck it up in the OF, when facing a lefty starter (22% of our games.) I think they felt JBJ, Duran, Dugo and Kike could do well enough to overcome that weakness on O vs LH'ers and JBJ would improve the defense by enough to not make the loss on O so bad. I think Arroyo was a patchwork failure. Refsnyder was a lucky find. Pham was too little -too late. The Kike slump and injury only made things worse, as it forced an already weak 4th OF'er into FT duty, but it also forced the Refsnyder call-up and success story.