moonslav59

I think the Sox expect more than 33 total starts from Sale & Paxton combined- like it or not/ believe it or not. Bello, Whitlock and Pivetta fill 3 more. I think they view Crawford, Winckowski, Seabold, Mata, Walter, Ward and maybe even Houck back to the rotation as better than Cooke & Silva. I'm not agreeing with this view, but the depth looks better than the last few years.

Personally, they all will be significant overpays. It's really more about picking your poison or the least likely to be poison. I lean towards the shorter deals on these type signings.

I think the Astros did, but not for too long, and they had 7 quality SP'ers on their roster, even after trading Odorizzi.

I doubt we go 6 man, but with the recent namby-pamby treatment of starters, maybe that is the next trend. I'm all for beefing up the rotation. I'd add two in a heartbeat. I just don't think the Sox will.

It must have sucked to finally get some real competition.

All good points, but I think the 5 straight in the last 5 years makes him more predictable on offense, until age kicks in, which will be sooner with Bogey. I'd much prefer Correa, but I'm pointing out his more inconsistent offense and injury history as 2 things that worry me about selecting him to be our biggest "large and long contract" since Price... maybe ever.

The no QO makes Taillon an obvious Sox target. I see this: Taillon + Nate's draft pick > Nate and no extra draft pick. I get your point about both, and if it would force Whitlock back to the pen, we'd get 3 pluses out of signing both. I'm not sure they want 2 SP'ers, though. I think they really like Bello and Whitlock as our 3-4's and Pivetta as our 5. Count Sale & Paxton as one, between them- I know, that's a stretch too- and it looks like we will add just 1 SP. We also have Crawford, Wink, Mata, Walter and maybe TWard as starter depth.

5.5-7.5 fWAR

Good thing that happens so rarely, or else you'd b e here all day.

I'm really optimistic about seeing a major improvement in 2023. $90M on 7-9 slots is still better than $40M on 12 slots, but I doubt we add more than 6 or 7 new players to the roster we have now.

I certainly think Correa is a better all around SS, even if you factor in a little more lost time for injuries. How much better is the question, and I agree, the differential between the two contracts will be what determines which one we like better. To me, Correa being 2 years younger is huge, so I'm looking at AAV and years- not total money given. I'd give Correa $248M/8 ($31M x 8) over giving Bogey $168M/6 ($28M x 6), even though the total dollars are $80M more to Correa. The AAV is close enough to reflect Correa is better and both contracts end at the same ages, but we get 2 more years of prime from Correa. That, to me, is the kicker.

Are you talking total money? I'm assuming Correa gets 1-3 more years than Bogey, so it's hard to quantify what $45M means. Correa at $295M/10 vs Bogey at $250M/8? I'd take Correa. His AAV is lower and they both end their contracts at the same age.

They may not "like it," and they spoke of adding a catcher, so I guess one could expand the slots needed to upgrade to 7, but that's still less than previous years and way more money to spend.

That's the scary part, but the shift was around longer than just 2022. It's weird he improved only in that area. Did Correa's drop in just that area?

Okay, change it to 125 or 128 OPS+ or more: Correa has done it twice in a row once and 5 times in 8 years. Bogey has done i the last 5 years straight.

In theory, we should be able to outbid others for Nate, since they'd lose a draft pick by signing him, but we gain one by not signing him, so I think they cancel out each other. We could sign Correa, Senga, 2 solid RP'ers, and a decent non-QO RF'er and walk away with a better team AND two extra draft picks. If we make a key trade, we could be looking really good.

Let's say, for argument's sake, we bring back Bogey at $26M x 6 or 7 years and Nate at $15M x 2 or 3 years. That's $41M out of the $86-91M or so we have to spend. That leaves $45-50M left to add at least one SP (Wacha/Hill replaced), a RF'er (replace JBJ/Pham/Duran), and 2-3 solid RP'ers. That's assuming no upgrade at DH, where we may see a mix of Dalbec/Hosmer/Refsnyder/Arroyo/EValdez or Catcher (McGuire, Wong, RHern/CHamilton) It's doable, but I do worry about our two biggest winter moves being bring back our two best players, who are both on the wrong side of 30.

MLBTR reports the Astros are looking for a lefty corner OF'er. They almost traded Urquidy at the deadline. BTV accepts Dugo for Urquidy & Neris. We'd then need 2 OF'ers not one.

Would you replace Bloom with Click, if it was up to you?

We had so many holes to fill the last few winters, and the limited winter spending budgets pretty much forced "dumpster dive" type moves at several positions. I can't see as many open slots, this year as the last 3 winters had. I'm not going to go back and look, but it might have looked something like this: 2020: $40M to spend on 11-12 slots, including the ones vacated by Betts, Price, Porcello and others and a massive budget cut overall) 2021: $40M on 8-9 slots 2022: $50M on 6-7 slots 2023 looks like it might be $90M for 5-7 slots. There is not enough roster slots open to use that $90M on 11-12 slots. Bloom will essentially be forced to go with quality over quantity for the first time under Bloom. How he chooses to spend will be his legacy.

I'm not so sure those estimates are correct. Bogey's offense has been way more consistent than Correa's, since his relatively slower start, and he has missed less time with injuries than CC. Many GMs value that, too. OPS+ Correa (will be 28 all season 2023) 135 in 2015 (age 20) 432 PAs 124 in 2016 (21) 577 155 in 2017 (22) 422 99 in 2018 (23) 468 137 in 2019 (24) 321 93 in 2020 (25) 221 131 in 2021 (26) 640 140 in 2022 (27) 590 2021 and 2022 were the first 2 years in a row Correa had more than 481 PAs or an OPS+ above 130. Is he consistent enough and healthy enough to get paid way more than Bogey- just because of better D? Bogey (will be 30 all season in 2023. He began at age 20- same as Correa, but became FT at age 21) 87 in 2021 at age 20 (50 PAs) 84 in '22 (21) 594 107 in '15 (22) 654 (The year CC broke into the bigs) 111 in '16 (23) 719 95 in '17 (24) 635 135 in '18 (25) 580 139 in '19 (26) 698 128 in '20 (27) 225 129 in '21 (28) 603 131 in '22 (29) 631 Bogey has 9 seasons in a row over 590 PAs, if you pro-rate 2020. He has had 5 straight seasons at a 128 OPS+ or more. Correa has had 3 of 7 seasons at 590 PAs or more and only 2 over 630 PAs. He's been over a 128 OPS+ in 3 of the last 5 seasons. I do think Correa gets more money and more years (due to his age), but it might not be by as much as you suggested. I'd take Correa at $260M/8 over Bogey at $160M/6. It might be more like $300M/10 CC vs $225M/7 XB. I'd still go CC, but I have no idea which one the Sox would take. (My guess is neither, but if they had to, I'd guess CC.) One wild card is the fact that CC's D declined, this year, while Bogey's improved, and there is no shift, next year.

If he has a good season, in 2023, I could see him getting $330/12- maybe $340.

I like Taillon and see him as a similar gamble to Nate. When the Yanks traded for him, I had wished we had. I'm not as high on Nate as many here, but I'm not all that high on any of this year's FA SP'ers. Taillon might get 1-2 more years than Nate, if they both choose length over AAV.

Maybe they view defense at SS as more valuable than some of us do, and maybe they view Correa as vastly superior on defense to Bogey. We just don't know.

Yes, go ahead and knock off $35M off $90. THat still leaves us with $55M, which is more than we had to spend in 2020, 2021 and 2022, including the Story signing, and now we'd have one less slot to fill. $55M could be spent like this... $22M Nimmo $15M Nate $10M RP $8M RP We could spend less on RF and more on pitching or make a trade to fill one slot and spend more at the other 4-5 slots. It can be done. There is more to be optimistic about this winter than the last 3, assuming we spend up to the line. If we pull the trigger on a major trade, we can work wonders- or take a huge swing and miss.