moonslav59

Old schoolers look at RBI, but they don't seem to about how easy it should be for Yoshida and Turner to out RBI Bogey and JD. All we heard about, last year was Renfroe's lost 98 RBIs. They look at how we can possibly replace Wacha's 3.32 ERA and Nate's 3.87. They don't loos closely at the fact that both started 43 games, combined and really weren't as good as their ERAs showed they were.

I don't think they expected to be in the thick of it in '21, and they were still clearly in "hoard top prospect" mode. I think they did pretty well getting what they did for essentially Aldo Ramirez. Schwarber, Iggy, Shaw, Robles and Davis all helped. The funny thing about 2022 was that McGuire, Pham and Hosmer did better than what we had beforehand.

It's going to be hard replacing Bogey's 133 OPS+ from 2018-2022 (5 years.) It was 130 over the previous 3 seasons combined. JD had a 135 OPS+ over that same timeframe, but 116 over the last 3 seasons. We are also replacing... 88 OPS+ Vaz 2018-2022 (87 '21-'22) 2022 80 Dalbec in 2022 60 JBJ in '22 92 Cordero '22 86 Pham '22 78 Duran '22 61 Plawecki '22 77 Hosmer '22 -6 Sanchez, 17 Downs, 92 Almonte, 70 Chang, -100 Shaw and -100 Arauz This final list had more than 1800 PAs in 2022. Bogey & JD had just over 1,200. Add Vaz and it's about 1520. 128 Turner 2018-2022 ??? Yoshida 102 Duvall '19-'22 87 McGuire '18-'22 83 Tapia '18-'22 More from... 97 Kike (2018-2022)

And the whole point was about a team's feelin of being in it or out of it before the trade deadline. I had absolutely close to zero hopes. The buzz on this site, especially in game threads was that the team sucked or worse. The mood was light years different from 2021. Yes, we had a bunch of returning players that offered some hope for a turn around. Yes, fans with tickets to late season games and NESN subscriptions deserved a decent product to view, which in my opinion, they failed to get, anyways, but that is hindsight. Key players never came back.

That's already been discussed over and over. It's hard to project what Yoshida will do, but I do think he can beat the run production numbers from Bogey, so I mentioned that one thing... well there are actually 2: power and RBIs.. XBHs 156 2018-2019 111 2021-2022 RBI 220 2018-2019 152 2021-2022 Yes, OPS and OPS+ and wRC+ all show how well a batter is hitting better than XBHs and RBI, but those numbers do matter, and they matter a lot. He did have Devers hitting in front of him, most of the year. He had a lot of RBI opportunities, all year. RISP 180 PAs in 2022 183 in 2018 191 in 2019 Men on Base 322 PAs in 2022 271 in 2018 327 in 2019 I don't expect the 5 years of Yoshida will be a better than Bogey was over the last 5 years, but it could happen. I don't think he needs to match Bogey's numbers for us to improve, overall. I think he can create more runs than Bogey did, last year. It appears like Bogey had some bad luck, but I don't see anyone adjusting Wacha's numbers for good luck when saying we need to replace his 2022 numbers.

I suggested a Duran for K-F & Peralta on BTV and it got 4 thumbs down on the Sox side to one thumbs up! LOL.

I'm fine with fangraphs counting IP more than B-R seems to do. I also get the reasoning behind FIP, but I think it needs an adjustment for "weak contact" pitchers.

Big questions as of now: 1. Can 29-year-old Matasaka Yoshida replace the batting production of 30-year-old Xander Bogaerts? He just needs to come close, and improving on 152 RBIs from 2021-2022 should be easy to do. 2. Can 38-year-old Justin Turner replace the production of 35-year-old J.D. Martinez? Improving on 62 RBI should be easy. Turner was on fire to end 2022. 3. Can Adam Duvall replace the production of Trevor Story until Story's return? Story missed much or '22, so this might not be hard. 4. Can Triston Casas step up as an everyday MLB first baseman? The bar is set at Dalbec and Cordero's O and D. This is a lock upgrade. 5. Is Kiki Hernandez an everyday shortstop? A big question. He should be better on D and worse on O. 6. Is Christian Arroyo an everyday second baseman? No. We will add a middle IF'er. Book it. 7. Can the combo of Reese McGuire and Connor Wong replace the production of long-time Red Sox catcher Christian Vazquez? Yes, and don't forget Plawecki and his sub .590 OPS: 2022 innings at catcher: 643 Vaz and 421 Plawecki. That's a 3:2 ratio and not that hard to break even with. 8. Can the addition of Corey Kluber, as well as the uncertain returns of Chris Sale and James Paxton, offset the departures of Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill as the Sox await the development of Brayan Bello, Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck? The million dollar question. IMO, we have 5 guys needed to replace 69 good starts and 34 bad starts. We also have Mata, Walter, Murphy and more experienced Crawford and Wink. 9. Will the big-ticket additions of Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin sufficiently bolster a beleaguered Boston bullpen amid the volatility of relievers? It's better on paper, just like you want to claim the starters are worse on paper. The answers should determine whether the Red Sox will finish in the range of 78 to 85 wins. There are more possibilities than this list offers, and again, we don't need everything to go right- just enough to go right, and it's not as many as you might think.

I can see how someone can look at 2022 and 2023 and not see improvement: Team Record: Lost: 43-32 16-7 Wacha 14-12 Hill 11-9 Nate 1-2 Davis 1-4 Seabold Probably less of 11-15 7-7 Wink 4-8 Crawford Probably more of 24-35 5-4 Whitlock 2-2 Houck 0-0 Paxton 15-18 Pivetta 2-9 Bello 0-2 Sale Addition: Kluber 16-15 How much a better pen will help is hard to measure.

You sure didn't like the 2022 Sox rotation, last January or March. You are also counting Nate, Wacha and Hill as 3 SP'ers lost, when they only started enough games for 2. While Nate's 3.87 ERA looked very good, he was not the 2018 or 2021 Nate. Granted, replacing Wacha's 3.32 ERA will be very difficult, but he only started 23 games. Hill led the 3 with 26 GSd and had a 4.27 ERA. 26 Hill 4.27 23 Wacha 3.32 20 Eovaldi 3.87 But, don't forget we are also replacing these 34 starts, which is half of the 69 listed above: 14 Wink 5.89 12 Craw 5.47 5 Seabold 11.29 3 Davis 5.47 Add them all together, and it's not as daunting as you make it out to be. 2022>2023 33 Pivetta 33 26 Hill> 26 Kluber 23 Wacha> 23 more starts from Whitlock (23+9) 20 Nate> 20 more from Bello (20+11) 40 Wink/Craw/Seab/Davis/Sale/Houck> 40 Sale, Paxton, Mata, Walter, Murphy or the same two who started 26 of those 40, last year: Wink & Crawford.) I'm not seeing the disaster you are seeing. Certainly, we can get worse. I'm not so sure the odds are we will be worse. Yes, a lot comes down to Sale & Paxton, and I hate hoping on either of them, but Whitlock, Bello and Houck look very promising and Mata, Walter and Murphy along with Wink and Crawford look better than the starter depth we had last winter. Feel free to disagree, or not.

The schedule change alone should keep us at least even with last year's win total. We will play 24 less games against the AL East and 26 more games vs NL teams. I know a lot can go wrong, but looking at the odds of certain things happening, I have to believe we rate to be better at: 1B 3B LF RF Closer RP2 RP3 RP4 RP5, 6, 7, 8, 9... SP6, 7, 8 and 9... About the same at... DH C CF SP1, 2, 3, 4, 5 (Much) Worse at... 2B SS Granted, we will likely end up worse at more than 2 positions, but even if you move half of my "about even" slots to worse, I'm looking at: 16 Better 4 Same 6 Worse

Yes, I know weak hit balls require defenses to make the out, but to count weak hits as the same as hard hit balls is a weakness of that formula. There are plenty of examples of pitchers who don't K a lot of batters, but continuously get batters out that are penalized by FIP. Pitching is about a lot more than Ks, BBs and HRs.

We have 6 starters, out of which we need Pivetta to just be himself as a fine 5th starter. Out of the other 5, we might need 3 to do well, unless Mata, Walter, Crawford and Winckowski can do well in place of 1 or 2 who struggle or get hurt. I like our rotation depth better than last year and even 2021. I like the pen way more. I know I'm usually an optimist, this time of year, but again, we don't need everything to go right to end up with a significantly better pitching staff than 2022. I'm not predicting a championship, here. I'm saying we will be better. Our schedule will be easier. I think we have a decent chance at making the playoffs. I don't think we reach glory.

I never said Bello, Whitlock and Houck will break out. I said there is a chance that if Sale and or Paxton do not do well, some or most of them may take up the slack. I see Pivetta as our 5th starter. I see the other 5 filling the 1-4 slots. I may end up wrong, but so might you. Or not.

We looked great at the deadline. We had a bad August and were 12-19 from July 29th to the end of August, but despite a couple losing streaks in September, we did 14-11 and ended the season at 11-5 and 4-1. I know teams do better than expected in the playoffs. I'm not saying miracles never happen, but they are so few and far between, I'd prefer improving our longer term outlook over hoping for a miracle in 2022. The 2021 Red Sox did not change my philosophy.

Yes, the "Factor out" D, which in a sense, creates an even playing field, but I don't like how it penalizes pitch to weak contact pitchers.

Indeed, so who is creating "versions?"

I've never been a believer in the "Playoffs are a crapshoot," so that is a foundation of my feeling on the 2022 Red Sox. I think the way the 2021 Red Sox and 2022 Phillies looked in July was way different from the way the 2022 Red Sox looked. Granted, the returning players offered promise not witnessed during the first 4 months of 2022, but to me the slim chances of glory was worth trading for a slightly improved long term outlook of the Sox. The improved com picks & bonus pool money, alone seems worth a lot. Anything we got in return would be a bonus. Had we done a major fire sale, we could have gotten something very nice. Afterall, look what we got for just Diekman! I realize we did still have a shot. I get it. If I had tickets to a game after the deadline or season tickets, I'd not be too happy about that, but I'm always looking ahead. My perspec tive is no better than anyone else's, but it is what it is.

Would you give Dalbec for K-F? Duran for K-F & Peralta?

Does fangraphs' ERA- factor in/out defense or is that SIERA

It's not ignoring anything, including the fact that Bloom had a chance to extend Betts, if he didn't spend a penny anywhere else and could have dumped half Price without attaching Betts to the deal. DD tried to extend Betts. If it wasn't from Betts' mom, maybe he'd have done it. It appears DD changed his focus on extending Sa;e and Nate, and he got Bogey to extend one year beyond team control, too. Nobody is ignoring anything. The fact that DD tried hard to extend Betts is proof of the possibility. Do you honestly believe that when Bloom was hired, he had an opportunity to convince JH to spend on Betts? What? Bloom talked JH into slashing the budget b y $60M?

The differences were massive. The Sox were tied for 9th. The Phillies 6th. Plus, everyone knows DD never "sells."

What's your over-under bets on total PAs by these Sox players in 2023: 640 Devers 640 Verdugo 600 Yoshida 560 Casas 560 Turner 520 Kike 480 Duvall 440 Arroyo 440 McGuire 320 Refsnyder 200 Wong 200 Dalbec 160 Tapia 160 Duran 160 EValdez 120 Story 120 Rafaela 120 Hamilton 80 Alfaro 80 Mayer

What's your over-under bets on IP totals for these Sox pitchers: 180 Pivetta 160 Whitlock 160 Bello 140 Kluber 100 Sale 80 Paxton 70 Crawford 70 Winckowski 60 Houck 60 Schreiber 55 Jansen 55 Martin 50 Brasier 50 Barnes 50 Rodriguez 40 Mata 40 Walter 40 Mills 40 Taylor 40 Kelly 35 Murphy 35 German 30 Ort

What a difference this team would be, right now, had DD extended Betts & Bogey early on, instead of Sale and Nate. It would have cost much more, so it's sort of apples and oranges, here, and it looked like Betts was determined to go to free agency, at the time, but still... I am glad we did not lock up ERod, JBJ and Beni long term.