moonslav59

Yes, but even that 15 was less than most other years, and less HRs and XBHs means less teammates driven in with one swat of the bat. Bogey XBHs 71 in 580 PAs '18 (.122 per PA) 85 in 698 '19 (.122) 19 in 225 '20 (.084) 58 in 603 '21 (.096) 53 in 632 '22 (.084) That's about a 27% drop off from 2018-2019 and 2020-2022. .122 ('18-'19) > .089 ('20-'22)

2022 Red Sox w RISP 537 RBI in 1688 PAs (.261 BA and 139 XBHs) 2021: 568 in 1633 (.268 & 143) Actually less PAs in 2021! 2018 622 in 1753 (.289 and 168) 2022 Red Sox w Men on Base 626 RBI in 2834 PAs (.266 BA and 238 XBHs) 2021 654 in 2730 (.273 and 245) 2018 711 in 2830 (.282 and 277)

One problem with the Sox is we don't score when someone gets a hit w RISP as much as other teams. The short LF is part of the reason, but not all of it. 65 of Bogey's 73 RBI came with RISP. Not hitting as many HRs- and XBHs with men on base as he used to helped keep his RBI numbers down but out of the 62 times he got on base with RISP, 43 were BBs and 1Bs. Men on base: 91 out of 120. (BBs or 1Bs) 2019: 94 out of 129 - hardly a difference. (117 RBIs) It was a fluke, but the fact is, we can match his RBI production with someone like Andrus, but not his BA and OBP or SLG.

True. Never say "Never" or "Ever." That 2004 team was nearly all constructed by trades and FA signings, several by Dan D before Theo arrived. VTek wasn't "homegrown," but he was a prospect when we traded for him and D Lowe who had like 50 IP in MLB, when we got him via trade. The 2013 team did have Lester , Doubront and Buch as 60% of our rotation plus, Pedey, Jake and Middlebrooks/Bogey at 3B and Nava being keys to winning. I just can't see us winning again by adding Houck every 5 years.

But, they had 6-7 studs from their farm, and could afford to let Springer and Correa bolt. Their current rotation is all homegrown and is one of the best and could keep getting better as they all reach prime.

Good one.

I'm not sure anyone has pointed to the rotation and said it's going to be better. I had hoped adding a solid #1/2 was a top winter priority. It looks like adding a solid #3 in Kluber or Nate is all we can do via free agency, and I doubt we are prepared to trade top prospects for a 1/2, right now, so we will be needing a lot of what ifs to come true, and this is getting tiresome and frustrating as all hell. For all the blame being thrown at Bloom, he did a fine job adding solid pitching at a very low cost, last winter. fWAR: 1.8 Hill at $5M (0.9 bWAR) 1.5 Wacha at $7M (3.3 bWAR) 0.3 Strahm at $3M (0.3 bWAR) (plus RP'er 1.7 Schreiber at dirt (2.7 bWAR) No starters added, this winter, so far is frightening. Moving Whitlock and doubling his IP and fWAR should help. Hopefully, and here I'm going off on what ifs, again, Bello improves and triples his IP. Those two would then give us this: 3.9 Bello at 173 IP 2.8 Whitlock at 157 IP 1.5 Pivetta at 180 IP I'm not counting on Sale or Paxton, perhaps ever again. I'm hoping they can combine for 180 IP and maybe a 2.5 fWAR, but we need to plan on 80 IP and 1.0 WAR from both combined. We need a solid and dependable SP'er added before opening day, and I don't mean Houck or Mata. Kluber would be a help, but still falls short of what I not only hoped for but expected. Adding Kluber and maybe someone like a Luzardo would satisfy me, but what do we need to give up for Luzardo? Better yet, what would it take to get Luzardo & Rojas from the Marlins (not the rumored Wendle?) 27.1 Luzardo (4 yrs) 5.9 Rojas (1 yr) 33 value total We could take on a salary dump like -26 A Garcia, -20.9 Soler or -0.7 Bleier, but I'm not sure that is possible. Maybe give them Dugo for A Garcia as part of the package. 33 Value would mean something like: 33.2 Bello (Nope. It would be a step down at SP'er.) 18.5 Houck + 15.1 Rafaela (Mmmmm....) 18.5 Houck + 8.0 Yorke + 6.7 Verdugo (Maybe) 15.1 Rafaela + 8.0 Yorke + 8.7 Romero (Maybe) In theory, adding A Garcia and his salary would only need Verdugo: Verdugo for A Garcia, Luzardo and Rojas. I'd give more. If they want Duran (5.9), of course, no problem. I'd give up Murphy (3.6) + Lugo (5.6), which would be an big overpay, according to BTV, but I'd do it. Others like Seabold (2.9) or Winckowski (2.6) could be added or substituted for Murphy, Duran or Lugo, if they preferred one of them. I may be way off base, but I think a deal like that would make me happy and is not unrealistic. (Plus signing Kluber and or Fulmer) We could drop the Rojas ask and sign Andrus, instead, but I think he wants and will get 3 years. With Mayer a year or year and a half away, I doubt we do that, although we could trade Andrus, later.

I think we may just go with 5-6 year deal max for a while, even if that means missing out on the best of the best. I'm not sure it's such a bad strategy. I do think we need to start locking up our younger players, and even if some don't work out, they won't be $217M/7 year mistakes. I, too, play the blame game. I'm not saying I don't, but how about giving some credit to upper management for seeing that the first priority is to build up the farm to a level we haven't see since Theo's era. We may never reach those levels, again, due to all the rule changes, but I'm glad the realized it needed to be fixed and are at least trying to do something about it. Maybe Bello, Mayer and Casas can become the next Lester, Betts and Bogeys, but even if they fall short or way short, we had to try. No way we win without a bunch of farm help. Ever.

No doubt, their loss will be tough. It's a mystery on why their low RBI totals occured. Only part of it can be blamed on lower OBP's with batters ahead of him, but they did have #1 Devers ahead of them and he had 88 RBI with nobody in front of him.

Except the oh for 4 on 7+ year deals- the kinds everyone wanted for Betts & Bogey. If you can pinpoint one thing that led to this down time- post Theo, it might not be the albatross contracts of Crawford, Pablito, HRam, Price and Sale, but rather the lack of stars produced by the farm. Correct me, if I'm wrong but the most recent star our farm has produced was Devers, signed in 2013 under Ben. Bogey, Betts and Lester were from the Theo era. So, let's blame the current GM for not extending these stars and not the problem of us not adding a stud prospect in 10 years. Yeah, that makes total sense. (not you, Bell.) Instead, let's poo-poo the attempt at rebuilding the farm.

Misplaced blame galore. No doubt, Bloom made several mistakes, a few of them big ones. It all comes down to what we expected 3 years ago. You expected a miracle and are sorely disappointed one did not happen. You can ignore all the factors that led us to thin place in Sox history all you want, but they don't go away. Sure, we can dream about not making the Renfroe trade and maybe a few other moves where Bloom spent $10M or less and horrors of horrors, they guys did not play like all stars. Man he sucks! What's left to build around? A farm. That's where all these guys like Betts, Bogey, Devers and Lester came from. Whose fault is it the only guy we can build around, now, is Houck? Blooms? Maybe his biggest 3 failures are Renfroe, Richards at $10M and Perez at $7M. Sure blame that over $217M Price, $145M Sale and the farm that gave us Houck in 5 years. Makes total sense. There is plenty of blame to go around, if you want to wallow in it. Carry on: you do it well.

Yes, interesting points. Inflation would adjust some of those contracts higher, but still... Also, Lester's 5 year deal was the longest given to a homegrown pitcher. The Manny deal was not under JH, so the deals listed by length are... 8 Pedroia 7 Price, AGon, Crawford How many of these were resounding successes? 6 Story, Dice K, Pedroia It looks like the long part of "large and long" is what we might be shying away from, of late.

It's interesting to note that 4 of our top 8 contracts were extensions and 5 of our top 7 extensions were non homegrown players. How many of these top signings were a clear success or even a partial one? $217M/7 Price Partial, at best $160M/8 Manny Clear Success, despite the bad ending $154M/7 AGon Partial, but did not really do great over the 7 years (118 OPS+). $145M/5 Sale Disaster $142M/7 Crawford Disaster $140M/6 Story TBD $120M/6 Bogaerts (opt out after 3) Clear Success $110M/5 JD Clear Success, despite a couple down times. $110M/8 Pedroia Disaster due to injury $95M/5 Pablo Disaster $90M/5 Yoshida (+ posting fee) TBD $88M/4 HRam Disaster $83M/4 Porcello Partial $83M/5 Lackey Good, despite 2 iffy seasons $73M/4 Castillo Disaster $70M/5 JD Drew Clear $68M/4 Eovaldi Clear $68M/4 Beckett Clear $52M/4 Papi Clear $52M/6 Dice-K (+ posting fee) Partial, at best $41M/4 Youkilis One great yr/one good/2 bad $41M/6 Pedroia Clear $40M/4 Renteria Disaster $40M/4 VTek Clear $36M/4 Lugo Partial, at best $31M/4 Damon Clear $30M/4 Buchholz Partial, at best $30M/5 Lester Clear $26M/4 Offerman Id say no $26M/4 Foulke One key year- partial I count about... 9-10 successes 9-10 partial successes 2 TBD 8 Bad to disasters Basically 19-8- about a 70% success rate, but the top 5 are about 50-50.

Largest Contracts in Sox History (4 Years of More Only Red= Extension $217M/7 Price $160M/8 Manny $154M/7 AGon $145M/5 Sale $142M/7 Crawford $140M/6 Story $120M/6 Bogaerts (opt out after 3) $110M/5 JD $110M/8 Pedroia $95M/5 Pablo $90M/5 Yoshida (+ posting fee) $88M/4 HRam $83M/4 Porcello $83M/5 Lackey $73M/4 Castillo $70M/5 JD Drew $68M/4 Eovaldi $68M/4 Beckett $52M/4 Papi $52M/6 Dice-K (+ posting fee) $41M/4 Youkilis $41M/6 Pedroia $40M/4 Renteria $40M/4 VTek $36M/4 Lugo $31M/4 Damon $30M/4 Buchholz $30M/5 Lester $26M/4 Offerman $26M/4 Foulke $19M/4 Whitlock (We paid $63M+ to sign Moncada)

I read what you said. I think we are building to become a better team than the Yanks. You don't. Fine. I'm not sure it works, but I prefer this approach than overspending on aging stars like Judge. The thing is Judge will not keep them the same. He will decline while his hit on the fixed budget will not.

Can you imagine if we repeat the Betts and Price deal with a similar Devers and Sale deal. We had fun with the "half Price" aspect of the deal, now, we could just say half-price Sale.

I'm just saying I'm glad they signed him. I said it on the Yankee thread before and after the signing. I'll take our last 20 years over the Yankees. They have had some perks, but give me 4 rings. Honestly, I'd take 4 rings and 16 last place finishes over what the Yanks have done the last 20 years. I'm not condemning them. I'm praising us. We were in trouble before the Dodgers bailed us out with the Crawford salary dump. We were in trouble once the Price decline was upon us and budget woes created by 2019. Why do we keep thinking the solution is the same as what got us into trouble in the first place? I'm not saying the Price signing wasn't worth it. We won a ring, so it's hard to say it was, for sure, but I think that contract, along with CC's and maybe a few others- like Sale, Pablo, HRam... has forced JH to rethink that method of building winners. It might not be a bad idea. MIGHT!

Let's say no bad blood ever happened between DD and Sox management, and he was kept as our GM, but told to cut the 2020 budget to the same level Bloom did. No mandate to trade Betts or Price, but a firm line on the budget. Then, for 2021, he's given about $40M to spend but no large and long deals allowed. He's give $60M for 2022, but again nothing larger or longer than the Story deal. Do we have a ring in 2020, 2021 or 2022? Do we have more wins? Do we have a farm anywhere near what we have, now? I'm wondering, if he might have quit with the demands Bloom was given.

I don't believe we win a ring in 2023, even if we add Kluber, Andrus, Fulmer and trade for Luzardo. I'm not a playoff is a crapshoot type of guy. I think we'd make the playoffs with that team. I think, as is, we are better than most here seem to think we will be, but we have a ways to go. I was hoping this was the winter we made the big step, but it looks like they felt more building up was needed before the big "splurge." I can wait. I'd like to see us win it all in 2023 just like everyone else, but I do think the path to sustained winning is making your farm and foundation strong and deep, then use free agency to fill just one or two gaps, here and there. Maybe being so close to the Astros has clouded my judgement, but the last two rings have gone to teams that seem to have the same philosophy we are trying to establish. I'm not a " believer" in the sense that I am sure we will pull it off, but I admire the effort and think it's a good plan. Ultimately, it will come down to how well these farm additions do. We thought Ben's farm was great, and it turned out trading them was better than keeping them, as many never cam close to what their rankings promised. Keeping all of them would not have won us a ring, IMO, but that does not mean we should trade this set in for a quick 3 year window, if we are lucky..

Verdugo looked pretty good, when we traded for him. Downs was a consensus top 100 prospect. The trade did not work out as we wished. I'm okay with blaming B loom for the return not for the trade, and I think including Price is often ignored or not factored in when people look at what we got. Reports show n othing much better was an option, so I'm done getting upset on that aspect. I wish we'd kept Betts, but having that much money for 10 years does not mean all is lost. I'm over Betts. I'm more pissed about Lester, and that was years ago. I'm not pissed over Bogey, either. Like Betts, I wish we still had him. I wished we'd locked him up long ago. I would not have paid what the Padres paid him. I think $200M/8 was too much for someone who does not play SS well and did not want to be moved off SS. They messed up the messaging, but I'm not convinced extending him was a lock good move. I doubt we ever could have gotten BorA$$ to accept $160M/6, but if the proves to be the case, I'll agree that was a big mistake, but I seriously doubt that- happened. Knowing BorA$$, he always wanted more. It sucks watching out beloved players go, but winning wiped that slate clean, time after time in the past. This team has seen a lot of stars come and go, and many times it wasn't pretty. Much can be pinned on management and their willingness to throw players, managers and whoever under the bus, but many were smart business moves and the next cycle of winning made everyone seem okay with the rollercoaster ride. We've been on a downturn for a long time and that was before losing Bogey, but I can see a brighter future. I can see many here don't care or don't want to see anything positive, right now. It's a choice. The farm is much better, whether most Sox fans believe it or care about it. I do. The 40 man roster depth is light years better than it was after 2019. We've sucked 2 of the last 3 years, so many Sox fans don't believe it or care about that. I do. The budget is real and has been for the 20 years JH has been in charge. We don't go over the tax line more than 2 years in a row- ever. We reset often, and sometimes stay under for 2-3 years, at a time. It's the way it is- like it or not. I wish we spent more, but we dow when it really is needed, and we've cycled into WS rings every 3-5 years since JH took over. Many Sox fans don't like this and going on 5 years without a ring is not fun for any of us. Most fans could care less about the budget or tax line. I do, because it matters. We can bang our heads on the wall and scream for the rich guy to spend more, but that's not me. He will, or he won't. I think he will when the foundation is set up to a point were a window of winnings looks probably not just possible. I think JH learned from the DD era and is hoping to build a window longer than 3 years. I could be wrong, but I'm choosing optimism over doom & gloom.

...and by preserving the farm growth and not extending players to contracts with the majority of their term post prime. Quick, who was the last guy we signed or extended, where most years were past 31 or 32 years old? Next question, look back at all the times we did extend players to mostly post prime years, and tell me how many worked out well. It's not a dumb strategy to avoid these types of contracts. How many of these types of large AND long contracts have these teams signed? Astros Braves What's wrong with modeling our philosophy on what these two teams do, and then when the time is right, spend even more than they do?

I'm glad they crippled their budget for years to come while not getting one bit better. We can keep pretending JH can, should and will spend more and more, and believe it or not, Yankee fans are pissed they don't spend more, too, but paying B ogey $280M would have been the wrong thing to do. We heard all this same stuff after Lester's fiasco, and then POW! We sign Price and trade for Sale, and bam. To think JH will never do that again, needs some proof. Maybe he won't ever go that large and long, again, but building a strong farm and paying several players big money, mostly on shorter deals, does have a record of working. If the Astros can do it that way, maybe we can, too. They didn't buckle under and pay Springer, Cole, Correa and others. They did not get to where they are now, overnight. It takes patience- something severely lacking in today's society.

The Sox have done this, and have also spent more money than 2 out of three teams, even after the budget cuts following 2019. You wanted more. To me, that's feeling entitled. I'm optimistic about our future because the farm is vastly improved and our budget is in better shape than it was in 2019. I think JH will spend big again, when the time is right. Those who felt all was well in 2019 were kidding themselves. Our future looks brighter not than then, and to me, it's not even close. Even teams that so pay high prices for the very best players need a foundation to win consistently. We lost that by 2019. We're trying to get that back, and it takes time. Nobody has any patience, anymore. They want the best, and they want it now. If they don't get it- thrown blame and anger about. You can choose pessimism and doom & gloom outlooks. Not me.

I don't feel the need to identify who is to blame when things don't go the way I want them to. You want my take on who or what to blame? It's not going to be the guy they hired to trade Betts and Price and operate under a strict budget while getting no help but Houck from the farm. The guy told not to trade any top prospects and build up the farm over the ML team. Nope. Not him. Feel free to blame Bloom, if you wish. If I had to blame anyone or anything, I'd blame the greed of the filthy rich and the filthy rich owners of other teams that are having fun playing with their new shiny toy by buying up the best players at absurd prices. GREED. I might blame JH's greed for not wanting to sacrifice some of his profits to spend like the other free-spending owners, but not in the same way some here seem to be doing- hoping he sells the team. Blaming JH is like blaming capitalism for the Sox predicament. No going to do it. Sorry. Feel free to blame the fall guy.

I wanted to give Betts $400M/14, so I'm not sure where you think I'm coming from. On winning 3 WS, how? You think JH magically decides to spend way more had we extended Betts? Had we paid Betts and kept Price, we'd sign no other FAs for 2 years and then spend maybe $20M before 2022. We'd still be saying good bye to Bogey, JD and others- with or without Bloom.