moonslav59

Bah Humbug!

Would signing Klub er and Fulmer make anyone very happy with our staff? (It would almost certainly mean Brasier would be DFA'd, so there is that!)

Yes, of course, but we don't need all of these guys to do very well. I will say, we can't afford to go through 5-6 of these guys before hitting on one who does well. We might be out of it by then, but we have a lot of choices, and it might come down to the order we choose from them. Bello pretty mush has to do well. Maybe one from Crawford, Winckowski and Seabold. Maybe one from Kelly and German. It might be asking too much to hope for immediate success from 1 or 2 from these guys, but it's not impossible: Mata Walter Murphy Santos Longshots: Ort, DHern, Shugart Of course, we also need at least one of our oft-injured vet pitchers to come back: Sale or Paxton. We need Pivetta to be steady. We need Whitlock to give us 150 solid. We need the pen to do as good as they look on paper and maybe one from Taylor, Brasier, Mills and Barnes to find the groove they showed in at least one season in the last 4-5 years. Houck could be a big key, too. Our staff is not hopeless, but adding Kluber and Fulmer or one solid SP'er via trade would help, a lot.

The FA market is dried up of high impact hopefuls. The best we could maybe do is Kluber, Andrus and Fulmer, which wouldn't look bad, but IMO would still leave us short of what I hoped for. It would take us going 3 for 3 on those FA signings, and so far, we are like 3 for 50 PLUS trading for a solid SP'er for me to think, "well done." (Then, who are we trading to get that solid pitcher?)

If they just came out and said it, maybe it would give fans more faith than the crap they keep spewing. I'm not really sure they were blatantly lying about "trying to stay competitive" all these last 2 years. They did pretty good one year, and the confluence of injuries and downturns by too many vets might have been more of the reason we failed to make the playoffs than a flawed plan or incompetence. The fact that the best prospect we have traded in 4 years, yes including DD's final year, has been Aldo Ramirez is the biggest clue to what the plan has benn since 2019. Winning now has been a lower priority, even if not verbalized by management. It's obvious. The farm has grown by leaps and bounds, and thanks to some pleasant surprises by DD's prospects, we should start seeing some serious results, this year with a mix of DD and Bloom guys coming up in following years. Seriously, you need to establish a steady flow of prospects before you set your window. I'm not saying a Bogey or Devers extension interferes with this idea, as the window was not supposed to be 2027-2030- past prime for Bogey and a little for Devers, too. It's not total stupidity or incompetence to think it's better to wait on spending for big ticket items, until you have the pipeline stablished and have a better idea of what slots need attention from outside the system. It's easy to say, "Getting pitching is never a bad idea," but in now way do I see any of this year's FA SP signings as one I think would overlap whatever years the planned "window" is. The other big clue is the massive amount of one year deals, with 2 year deals far exceeding longers one, as well. Rebuild- yup! Telling your GM to trade Betts & Price and not replace Porcello, too, as well as letting Kimbrel, Kelly and others go before you even took over as GM and saying "Here's $40M- go and replace 12 players and create a winning team" is preposterous. I do think we had hopes at making the playoffs in 2021 and 2022, if almost everything went right. I'm not sure the whole "stay competitive" thing was a lie. They actually thought we could, and so did I, each of the last 2 Marches. To be a lie, there needs to be intent to deceive. This winter looks like it could be a "lie," but there is still time to acquire a pitcher via trade or maybe hope Kluber and or Nate can give us one year, and find a middle IF'er and maybe another piece to give us faint hopes of a WC berth, and hey, most ehre think the playoffs are a crapshoot...

What GM can juggle building up a farm, extreme budget cutting and the decline of returning vets- not to mention getting nothing from your highest paid player in 3 years? We should have won more than we did in 2022, no doubt. A perfect storm- the opposite of whatw e saw in 2021- occurred. The lost hope of Jeter Downs, getting nothing for Bogey, the JBJ trade, the 3 years of getting nothing from Sale, our highest paid player by AAV and not finding enough gems in the rough brought us to where we are, today. Certainly JH's refusal to go large and long on anyone, including our own stars has been a major factor in the state of the 26 man roster. I'm really not sure, under the circumstances JH set, how we could really expect much better. Better, yes, but how much better? You can't spend $40M on 12 players and expect great things, year one, especially with virtually no help from the farm- not just in year one but the two prior and two afterwards. You can't spend $40M on 8 players in year two, and expect great things. You can't spend $60M on 7 players year three and expect a ring. We knew the farm would not be a help for 4-5 years. We knew the only real way to win "along the way" was to spend and spend while also finding great bargains, which is what we expected and hoped Bloom would do. He's found quite a few, but not enough. I'm not sure incompetence is the word I'd choose, given what he was handed. I'm holding out hope, JH is just waiting to time a spending "pounce," but as Tom Petty would say, "The waiting is the hardest part."

Why is it different now than after the Fisk, Lynn, Burleson, Hobson, Tiant, Lee and many others purge over 40 years ago? I'm not trying to sugar coat where we are, right now, in terms of going for a ring in 2023 or maybe even 2024, but the team had some serious issues 3-4 years ago. Many of us knew it and saw what was coming. With the new rules in place making it harder to get great draft picks late in the first round and even the second round, because you could give out mega bonuses. Penalties for spending more affect your draft. The plan had to be to build up the farm, and that is very hard to do, while winning. That's not to say we lost on purpose, except for maybe 2020, but not really sucking makes it harder to b uild the fam quickly and deeply. Did anyone really expect Bloom to not only get us to a top 5 farm but to already be seeing Bloom farm infusions in 3 short years, including one season where doing well hurt our draft positioning? In some ways, it's a miracle that DD's farm turned out better than just about anyone expected and we may see Casas, Bello and maybe a couple others add some serious value we have not seen in 5 years. I realize none of this helps the fan paying big bucks to go watch the team in 2 of the last 3 years and 2023 looks to make that 3 of 4, but we've gone through longer droughts than this, and the fanbase kept cheering for our Sox. Maybe, we got spoiled by all the rings. Maybe patience is no longer something anyone cares ab out, anymore. I think there will be a lot of exciting things to watch in 2023- win or lose. That's minimizing the frustration I am feeling about this winter that I expected to be the turning point, but I'm not going to choose "doom & gloom." I like the direction our long term future is heading. I wish and think JH should spend more, but I'm not going to get angry about it.

That was my point, and why I said had we traded Renfroe for prospects. While we often talk about only the tax line and AAV, that $8M JBJ buyout paid, this winter might be one reason why JH is not ev en spending up to the tax line.

Certainly, not enough, and if that is really the only very bad deal Bloom made, maybe that is the point. What do people expect from $3M/1 free agents? Or even $10M/1'ers?

No GM gets us very much farther under the circumstances of the last 3 years: 1. Houck as the only prospect of note in 5 years. 2. A m assive budget cut year one, followed by a trickle of winter spending money. 3. Injuries and declining production from returning vets. Mistakes were certainly made by Bloom and the blame game can extend beyond him, but some context is needed, IMO. Signing high-priced players is a big risk. Signing tier 2 and 3 FAs is not something many GMs do very well.

Had Casas and Bello not been called up, last year, here is where BTV might have ranked our top 5 prospects: 7. Mayer 55.4 18. Casas 41.3 28. Bello 33.2 80. Rafaela 15.1 89. Bleis 13.6

I don't blame players, who most come from low or modest backgrounds for seeking the most they can. I do wonder why so many seem shocked that someone like JH just wants to keep making more and more money. It's the way of our world, but for some reason, if it denies us our enjoyment in sport, he's the evil, greedy bastard, while we look up to many rich guys. Henry spent enough to get us 4 rings, so it's hard for me to get pissed at him, It's other cities' time, now, I guess.

Phillies to sign Kimbrel.

I meant greed by the owners. JH values making more money over paying out what it takes.

Sounds about right. They may have insisted on Mayer and Dugo- maybe for Varsho and Ahmed.

My guess is the reason Andrus is not already in a Sox uniform is that he wants 3 years or 2 with a hefty buyout after 2 years and an option year. He should get 2-4 years from someone. I think we will need to bite the bullet and trade for Rojas from the Marlins or some other 1 year SS. It shouldn't be too costly, but if we get a real good defensive SS who might hit .700 without costing a top prospect, it may help by allowing Story to stay at 2B, and leave more budget space to sign Kluber and/or Nate and maybe even Fulmer.

I have to think some of these owners may be thinking they won't be the owner, when these deals all start going in the dumpster, while some may just keep spending their way out of the mess. Look at just what the Price and Sale contracts did to the Sox. If you add Pablito, HRam and CC before that, one can see why maybe JH has gotten a bit reluctant to agree on any more large and long deals. Even his large and medium and medium and medium deals have not paid back in production. Even the few that did had caveats. I don't see most of these contracts as trying to beat the lux tax calculation as much as the only way to outbid the other maniac owners.

Jays acquire Daulton Varsho for Gurriel & Moreno.

I totally agree on the non resetting thing, and I think that might have been from pressure to not upset the fans by trading JD at the deadline- part of the whole "need to stay competitive" thing that clashes with the long term goal of building up the farm and setting up the budget to maximize the timing aspect of the overall improvement of the team. To me, the JBJ trade was the one deal that was horrific from day one, and for several reasons- one being the budget. (We'd have reset had we just traded Renfroe for prospects, alone.) The Betts trade was forced upon him, and reports show no significantly better trades were available. The Beni trade can be viewed as a loss, but it wasn't a big difference maker. 3 years: 1 really bad trade and maybe a couple others that were minor mistakes. That's not all that bad. His FA signings, IMO, should be viewed within this context: 2020: $40M to spend (not even enough to replace Betts, 1/2 Price and Porcello's departing deals) and 12+ roster slots to fill. 2021: $40M to spend on 8-9 slots. 2022: $60M to spend on 7-8 slots. Realistically, what can be expected from FAs at those numbers? Granted, I expected better at "finding gems in the rough," but Bloom has "found" Whitlock, Schreiber, Pivetta, Refsnyder, Arroyo, Kelly, McGuire and maybe a few other surprises to come, but overall not what I hoped for. FA: Story is still TBD. Good ones: Wacha, Strahm, Hill, Renfroe, Kike. Not so good: Richards, Perez I, Perez II, Paxton and a bunch at around $3M like Marwin & Andriese. To me, when you look at the totality of Blooms moves, including the farm, he's been a net plus, but what's dragged us down were the budget constraints, bad inherited contracts, and the decline of so many vets, including some nearing or in their primes. Injuries really hurt our chances in 2022, but we were fortunate in 2021, injurywise. As I have said, before, this winter would be Bloom's flashpoint, and so far, it's been underwhelming, to say the least. Let's see how he finishes the winter and how the team does in 2023, but I'm not thrilled about our chances in 2023 as I am about the beyond.

I think we are going with Yoshida in LF (Turner at DH), Kike in CF and Verdugo in RF with refsnyder at the 4th OF'er and possible platoon in RF with Dugo. Duran, and later Rafaela provide the minor league depth, like it or not. Other RF options may have to be via trade. Free Agents: Adam Duvall The highest rated players still unsigned according to MLBTR list: 23. Eovaldi SP 33. Profar LF 39. Chafin RP 40. Segura 2B 41. Wacha SP 48. Kluber SP NR Andrus SS NR Fulmer RP NR Belt 1B NR Cueto SP NR Kimbrell RP NR Mancini DH/LF/RF/1B NR G Sanchez C .

A breakdown of Bloom's additions to the farm by soxprospects rankings: Recent grads: Bello (peaked at #3) Winckowski (9) Wong (11) Ort (41) Current Rankings: 1. Mayer ('21 draft) 3. Bleis ('21 IFA) 5. Yorke ('20 draft) 7. Romero ('22 draft) 9. Anthony ('22 draft) 15. Jordan ('20 draft) 17. E Valdez (Vaz trade) 18. Hickey ('21 draft) 19. Rodrigues-Cruz ('21 draft) 20. Kavadas ('21 draft) 21. Coffey ('22 draft) 22. Seabold (Workman/Hembree trade) 23. German (Ottavino trade) 24. Drohan ('20 draft) 25. Kelly (FA) 26. R Hernandez (Springs/Mazza trade) 27. Abreu (Vaz trade) 28. Brannon ('22 draft) 29. Paez (IFA) 30. Uberstine ('21 draft) 31. Hamilton (Renfroe trade) 32. Guerrero ('21 draft) 33. McDonough ('21 draft) 34. Koss (Aybar trade) 35. Encarnacion ('22 IFA) 36. Binelas (Renfroe trade) Current 40 Man Roster Bloom Additions/Extensions (not on grads or prospects list above): Barnes (extension) Verdugo (Betts trade) Pivetta (Workman/Hembree trade) Arroyo (Waivers) Wong ( Betts trade) Kike (FA & extension) Paxton (FA & option) Story (FA) Schreiber (waivers) Refsnyder (FA) McGuire (Diekman trade) Joely Rodriguez (FA) Martin (FA) Jansen (FA) Yoshida (FA) Mills (Wallace trade, who was acquired for Pillar) Turner (FA)

I could be wrong, but I think your bonus pool is larger for lower ranked teams. If not, at least it's not depleted by penalties of going over the tax line or signing QO FAs. (I don't know the rules, either.)

According to cots, and adding the $10M AAV for Turner, we look to be $38M short of the tax line. If the plan was to stay competitive while resetting the budget, leaving so much on the table really is a head-scratcher. Granted, there is still time to sign a few second tier FAs that could use up close to all of that money, like Kluber or Nate and Andrus or Segura, or we could trade for a large salary player. Assuming we add a SP'er and middle IF'er- I'll select Kluber and Andrus, our 26 man roster might look like this: 1. L Yoshida LF (DH) 2. R Story 2B (SS) 3. L Devers 3B (DH) 4. R Turner DH (1B/DH) 5. L Casas 1B 6. R Kike CF (2B) 7. L Verdugo RF (LF) 8. R Andrus SS 9. L McGuire Bench: Arroyo, Refsnyder, Wong & Dalbec/EValdez S1 Sale/ Paxton (one on the IL) S2 Kluber S3 Whitlock S4 Bello S5 Pivetta R1 Jansen R2 Martin R3 Houck R4 Schreiber R4 Barnes R5 J Rodriguez R6 Mills (1 option remaining) R7 Brasier R8 Taylor/Crawford/Kelly/German/Ort/DHern SP on farm (converted to pen?) Winckowski/Seabold/Mata/Walter/Murphy/Santos

Let's assume the Astros are the model we are trying to get to. Remember, they tanked for several years to jump start their farm build up. Can we really expect we can do that as quickly and thoroughly as they did? Yes, they traded for Yordan Alvarez, while we traded for Winckowski, but it took them time, and they did not deviate from the plan of not trading farm pieces for immediate help all along. Note, they did not trade Correa or Springer or Verlander or many other key pieces, who left via free agency. Nobody in Houston is bitching a bout them not trading those stars to get something instead of nothing. Winning shuts up almost all critics. To me, Boston fans don't have the patience to wait that long, and I'm not blaming them, but the reality is, we would not have accepted a total tear down and restart that may have included 2-3 total tank years. We tried to win while rebuilding, and that is not an easy thing to do, when yo are starting with a farm that produced just Houck in 5 years and an owner than aimed to cut the budget massively in 2020 and then add winter spending money sparingly or to levels that essentially just replaced departing salaries. Had we had a decent farm in 2019-2020, our chances of winning in 2021 and 2022 would have greatly increased. When you don't lose badly, you don't get top draft picks or IFA bonus pools. The poor finish in 2020 demonstrates just how much losing can boost the farm (Mayer draft pick and Bleis IFA addition).

Of course it is. Had Judge taken the bigger deal in SF, Yankee fans would be saying the same thing. Like it or not, money is the reason Betts and Bogey are gone and Devers might be right behind them. Greed is a powerful thing.