moonslav59

I certainly agree.

MLBTR sums up the Sox SP'er situation... https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/02/the-volatile-red-sox-rotation.html

MLBTR has this on the 60 Day IL. Did something change from last year? Just about every baseball team has a full 40-man roster now, with the Astros the only team with an open spot at the moment. That means that just about every transaction, be it a free agent signing or a waiver claim, requires a corresponding move. However, that could soon change as the injured list is coming back soon. There’s no IL from the end of a season until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training for the next campaign, which they will do next week. That means some clubs could potentially gain a bit of extra roster flexibility at that time, since players on the 60-day IL don’t count against a team’s roster total. However, it’s worth pointing out that the “60 days” don’t start until Opening Day, which is March 30 this year. That means, though a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL next week, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later. So, we can put Story on the 60 Day IL, open up a slot, now, but his clock begins March 30th, right?

It would be nice, but you need a strong farm that produces 6 SP'ers like they did. I don't expect that from this rotation, but I think'll get more starts from our top 6 than last year's top 6. While I think we will be lucky to meet fangraph projected GS'd, we don't have to to beat 2022's record. We could lose 33 starts from these projections and still beat 2022 by 12 starts. ZIPS 31 Pivetta 29 Kluber 26 Sale 23 Paxton 21 Whitlock 19 Bello 149 Total (I project 120 or 20 GS x 6 SP'er avg.) 2022 33 Pivetta 26 Hill 23 Wacha 20 Nate 2 Sale 0 Paxton 104 Total

We have 6 SP'ers, so to me, the odds that 5 are healthy are maybe 60-70%. The odds 4 are healthy, maybe 85-95%, IMO.

We saw Sale and Paxton miss the whole season. Wacha and Hill missed a half season between them. Nate missed a third. Whitlock and Houck missed time. Taylor, maybe our 2nd or 3rd best RP'er missed every game. Barnes and other were hurt. I do think it's hard to imagine this staff has more injuries. The everyday players may come close. Kike & Story missed almost half the year. Devers played hurt for a month and played in 141 gms, total. Arroyo was Arroyo. Casas and Hosmer missed time. I stand by my point.

Certainly, a lot of money has been spent over the last year. Of course, we lost a bunch of salary, this winter- some of whom were plus and plus-plus performers, but I'm not sure even DD had a 12 month spending period like Bloom just had. Lux Tax Dollars (+109M AAV in 2023) (17.5 x 1 not counted) and 29.1 x 10 Devers (starts in 2024) 23.3 x 6 Story (March 2022) 18.0 x 5 Yoshida 16.0 x 2 Jansen 10.8 x 2 Turner 10.0 x 2 Kluber 10.0 x 1 Kike 7.50 x 2 Martin 7.00 x 1 Duvall 4.00 x 1 Paxton (option) 2.00 x 1 Rodriguez (+ opts) Lost: (about $113M AAV) 22.0 JD 20.0 Bogey 17.0 Eovaldi 12.0 JBJ 9.38 Barnes 7.00 Vaz 7.00 Wacha 5.00 Hill 4.00 Diekman 3.00 Strahm 2.25 Plawecki 2.25 Robles 1.60 Sawamura 1.50 T Shaw If you don't count the Story signing, we actually did not fully replace the salary lost from 2022. (Kike was extended during 2022, and I counted that as winter spending.) That being said, my expectation is that we should significantly improve on the 2022 team. It's hard to imagine we'll have more injuries, and since the schedule is easier, there should be no excuses, if we fail to get over .500, IMO. We lost some good talent from 2022, but when you spend $86M over the winter (counting Kike), that should be enough to fill those big shoes. This is Bloom's "legacy season," IMO. It may not make or break his tenure here, but it might.

Improved win total, though. LOL.

Bleis is more "raw" but looks extremely talented. The wildcard is Rafaela. The kid could really be something, or end up as the next JBJ- great on D and sporadic on O with some major holes in his O. What we really need is a pitcher to step up and end the curse our system has been in for far too long.

I'm the same way. I am never late. My Dad was always late, and got us to events late. I think that drove me so crazy, I'm his opposite.

I also see Mayer as the type of player that can be "fast-tracked." He's likely already good enough on D, and as you point out, his approach is perfect for moving up, quickly. If it takes two more years, that's okay, too.

I knew you couldn't resist one more attack, but I'll refrain from returning one. Sorry for questioning your fandom. That was not right.

I hope we don't have to "trial and error" our way with our staff through the first half of 2023. I think we have a pretty good idea who has the best chances at succeeding, this year, and they will be given the first chances, once someone gets hurt or flops enough to be demoted or DFA'd. Mata has missed some time, but he was pretty highly regarded before the injury and has looked very good, recently. As much as health concerns seems to be our team motto, Mata has real talent- possibly as a strong pen guy. Walter: You gotta like the 75Ks and just 7 BBs in 58 IP, last season at AA/AAA, but can that translate to the bigs? He laso had a .585 OPS Against, but that 58 IP is worrisome. I'm not sure when the last time we had a SP'er with 75:7 K:BB ratio. Murphy has not really impressed me. He started off great, last season, and fell off a cliff near the end. Maybe he should be placed in the pen in AAA. Crawford & Wink are not prospects, anymore, but I still have some hopes they can rise above their rookie numbers. Kelly may give us some nice pen help down the road. The Sox pitching on the farm is still not close to what many teams have, but I do think it is taking a step in the right direction, and maybe Perales, Wikelman or E R-C take major strides, this summer.

So, they must be viewing Mayer as "at least 2 years away," then, right? He could sure fill in the gap between the bubbles by making a strong debut in 2024. (Maybe even get a look-see in 2023, as you suggest.)

To think he's 4th all time, in assists, too is amazing. He also gets his fair share of rebounds.

I was wondering why, too. I want to know why would Uberstine drop, when 4-5 guys left the list above him?

Law had him 16th- not far from SP.

I like having so many two year players vs the one year signings that marked much of Bloom's first 3 season signings. The Yoshida and Story signings have 5 years to go. We lose a whole lot of players in 2 years, unless we extend or re-sign them: Sale, Dugo, Jansen, Martin, Kluber, Turner, Pivetta, Rodriguez, Bleier, Arroyo & Refsnyder. (Only, Kike, Duvall, Mondesi, Paxton and Brasier are FAs after 2023.) Joining Yoshida and Story, of course is Devers (10 yrs), but also: 3 yrs: McGuire 4 yrs: Schreiber, Dalbec 5+ yrs: Whitlock, Houck, Bello, Casas, Wong, Kelly, Mills, Crawford, Winckowski, Ort, Duran ML Ready prospects: Rafaela, Mata, EValdez, Walter, Murphy 2024 ML Ready: Mayer, Yorke, Hamilton, Abreu, Lugo, Kavadas, Drohan, RFernandez That's 30 guys with 3+ years, but not all will still be around in 2-3 years. I'd guess we'll need 12-18 out-of-system additions to fill the rest of the 2025 roster.

I'm a bit confused by the question. In theory, the more talented homegrown talent, the better, especially if pre-arb or early arb. That's not something we can theorize. It either happens or it doesn't. There is so much speculative and moving parts, it's impossible to project the make-up of this summer's roster, let alone next year and beyond. As much as I've stated how happy I am the farm has become a top priority, again, I have no idea, if the results will come close to what I expect and hope for. It is a fact, we have more ML ready prospects that have come up since mid last year and expected to get a chance by mid next year than we've had in a two year period in a very long time. It remains to be seen how they pan out. How many can win meaningful roles and hold them for a few years. How many might become more than just role players. I've always prefered quality over quantity, but it is nice to see the quantity so high. Now, we just need to hope enough of them make it. I do see some quality among our prospects, and I know many will not make it, but it's better to have hope in the farm than wishing for miracles.

soxprospects.com tweaked their rankings as various players were traded and added. The top 21 stayed the same, so these shifts are not earth shattering, and most are just moving up by attrition. I'll only list those who jumped by more than attrition. 33 > 26 Hamilton 40 > 27 Ryan Fernández 39 > 31 Marvin Alcantara Fell 34 38 Newbies to the top 60: 46. Theo Denlinger (for German) 48. Oddanier Mosqueda 49. Yoeilin Cespedes

Verdugo has been an ironman. He might be last on my list. I think the obvious choice is Arroyo, but I'm going with Brasier. I just makes too much sense for him to go down, after so much gymnastics being done by management to keep him on the roster.

Has he ever ranked the Sox more highly than the others?

Then what? Memory foam?

The thing is, I doubt there was a single source that had Jimenez ranked highly. On second thought, I see SP's had him 18th. Nevermind.

I thought the exact same thing. Big red flag on his knowledge of the Sox system.