moonslav59

Less than inflation! These guys are more than generous!

I think they felt the offer made to Betts was more than adequate, and he was determined to reach free agency. I never got that sense from Devers wanting to get to the open market. Maybe that's a slight difference, but meaningful enough to make the difference in approach. I also think that losing Betts then Bogey created a whole new dynamic in the public relations area that made how they handled Devers a seed change.

Take that up with Henry. I question that strategy, too. I think 2020 was a write off, but had we kept Betts, Bogey and Sale, despite them saying they would not, maybe they'd have treated 2020 differently. I still think'd need to find another way to dump at least half-Price and maybe not extend Sale, Bogey or Nate.

He is why I listed those 4 as primarily middle IF'er.

Yes, but JH chose not to get to $207M. I guess he might not have minded going there, by keeping Betts, but I think he chose to save more money, that year. He could have also traded Betts, alone, gotten more for him and afforded the extra $16M for Price and still stayed under. It seems to me, it was not just about not going over the line in 2020. I think we could assume the same budgets we had, each year to play the mix and match game of keeping Betts over others. Just my opinion.

I could see Mondesi at SS and Kike in CF, if any of these guys get hurt or need a rest: Duval Dugo Yoshida Turner (Yoshida to DH) Casas (Turner to 1B/Yoshida to DH) Devers (Turner to 3B/Yoshida to DH) My guess is, they have Mondesi play 2B, but if he and Arroyo are healthy and playing well, we might even see Arroyo at 2B, Mondesi at SS and Kike back in CF for certain situations. I do agree, though. Kike is the SS. They will likely avoid jerking him around.

We disagree, then. I think our current 11-20 pitchers are significantly better than any team since maybe 2018. It's not so much that they all look very promising, but maybe more about just how bad it was in recent years. While you might not think the 11-20 ranked pitchers make much of an impact, here is a look at the IP from the top 10 vs the depth, in recent years: 2022: Top 10 IP/the rest 955/475 (33%- granted, some were scrub IP) 2021: 1050/370 (26%) 2020: 316/218 (42% WOW!) 2019: 950/520 (35%)

At least the reported offer was not a slap in the face- like Lester & to some extent, Bogey.

Just Betts, instead of Sale could have made this happen, but it would have been difficult without the half-Price dumping, too. Also, imagine trying to reach the low budget number of 2020 with Betts and Price on the roster. Even if we could have found a buyer on half-Price with maybe a prospect thrown in, how do we meet the $185M lux tax line in 2020? No Nate. No Sale. No half Price. Is that enough? It's easy to pick and choose who we would not have signed for 2021 to stay under the tax line, but even all the meh signings don't equal Mookie's numbers. It would have been tight as hell, and we'd have very few quality players to put around Betts, assuming the budgets stayed equal from 2020-2022.

True, and Arroyo & Kike can play 3B and 1B, too.

You honestly don't know what I mean by "quantity?" It's the skill levels of the depth that has improved. After the top 10 pitchers, we now have this as the next 10: Crawford Winckowski Mata Walter Rodriguez Bleier Brasier Mills Kelly Murphy/Ort Our 11-20 in 2022 (by IP): 4.71 Bello (57 IP) 5.47 Davis (54 IP) 3.73 Sawamura (51) 3.83 Strahm (45) arguably in our top 10 5.13 Danish (40) 4.31 Barnes (40) 4.23 Diekman (38) traded away 6.35 Ort (28) 5.84 Robles (25) 11.29 Seabold (18) 2021 3.40 Taylor (48) 3.16 Sale (43) arguably top 10 without injury lowering IP 3.38 DHern 40 5.85 Valdez 40 6.03 Andriese 37 (cut) 3.60 Robles 24 (added at deadline) 3.70 Rios 24 4.95 Workman 20 4.86 Davis 17 (added at deadline) 6.59 Brice 14 2020 (The top 10 was scary, too: 1 Perez, 3 Weber, 4 Valdez, 5 Mazza, 6 Godley, 7 Brewer, 8 Brasier) 5.95 Brice 20 IP 0.53 Houck 17 5.74 Osich 16 (traded) 7.07 Covey 14 7.71 Kickham 14 4.73 Stock 13 9.45 Walden 13 15.55 Hart 11 1.80 Pivetta 10 (added at deadline) 5.59 Hembree 10 (traded)/18.69 MHall 9 Even 2019... Brasier, Brewer, Cashner, Taylor, Weber, Johnson, Hembree, J Smith, DHerny, Lakins, Shawaryn, Thornburg, Chacin It's the quality of the quantity that has changed. Maybe the strength of the depth came at the expense of the quality of the top 10, as the "wealth" was more spread out. Maybe this bottom 10 will end up worse than recent years. Maybe I'm just a homer for seeing improvement in our pitching depth. Do you think our pitching depth was better in 2019, 2020, 2021 or 2022?

He added... “It would be nice if we could attract strategic people who care about Baltimore, who care about the way we’re doing this now, who care about the example Camden Yards set and want to be part of it...”

Had Bogey not opted out, they did spend $300M+ on Sale and Bogey ($400+ with Nate.)

I thought I read somewhere, the Dodgers said they will not cut payroll to get under the line.

When you put it that way... Well, Mondesi certainly has more upside. BTW, Yu Chang 77 career wRC+ -1 DRS at SS career but +10.2 UZR/150 (just 180 innings) +2 DRS at 2B career and +2.3 UZR/150 in 310 innings

That makes sense. We can't carry 4 middle IF'ers on the 26, unless Kike moves to the OF (injury or Yoshida to DH?) Kike Mondesi Arroyo Chang None have options remaining. Hamilton & EValdez in AAA and on the 40.

Soxprospects.com has 27 players listed for the 26 man roster with Mondesi on the IL and Story on the 60 day IL. I'm not sure we start the season with the allowed 14 pitchers, but we might. SP has Mills and Bleier ranked 13th and 14th, and since Mills has options remaining, he could be the odd man out. If they stick with 14 pitchers, I think Duran would be the odd man out, since we have Refsnyder as the 4th OF'er and Kike available in emergencies. When Mondesi comes back, I think we will have to go with 13 pitchers. Can anyone else squeeze their way onto the 26 without any injuries creating an open slot? P: Crawford, Mata, Wink, Kelly, Ort, Walter or Murphy? C: Alfaro (would need to be added to the 40, first) 1B: Dalbec (2B/SS?) 2B: E Valdez (1B/DH) IF: Hamilton, Goodrum (not on 40) OF: Rafaela, Tapia (not on 40) I like our depth better than the last few years, especially with pitching, and when Mondesi gets healthy, our 26 man roster looks pretty deep. Bench: Wong ©, Refsnyder (OF), Arroyo & Chang (IF) With Kike able to play OF, very well, and Turner as a more than capable back up corner IF'er, I think our bench will be an asset. Our pen looks 5-6 deep with promising guys like Kelly, Bleier and Mills ready to replace Braiser. Our rotation is the big question mark, and in this area I always prefer quality to quantity, but quantity does have its advantages. I just hope we don't have to cycle through 3-4 failures to finally find the key piece we need. We can't afford trial by error having too many errors. Making the playoffs will be hard enough, as it is. We look to have 6 SP'ers, who all have past success or a promising future: Sale, Kluber, Whitlock, Bello, Pivetta & Paxton. We may even start with a 6 man rotation, if the miracle of 100% rotation health occurs, this spring. What excites me about our starters is the solid depth. I may be wearing pink glasses, here, but I still see hopes for sophomore successes by Crawford & Winckowski. I also think Mata might be a wild card that shocks some fans. He may end up being in the pen, but I'm looking forwards to seeing him in the bigs. Walter and Murphy might be long shots, but both have show some long stretches of success in the minors. Walter's 75: 7 and 86:14 K:BB rates over the last 2 seasons are very encouraging. Murphy had a 2.35 ERA on July 23rd before falling off a cliff. He might be better suited for the pen. I count 19-21 pitchers who show enough promise or history to think they could be plusses in 2023: Sale Kluber Paxton Whitlock Bello Pivetta Crawford Winckowski Mata Walter Jansen Martin Houck Schreiber Rodriguez Bleier Brasier Mills Kelly Murphy Ort Call ne a homer, but this quantity over quality is starting to grow on me, as much of the quantity shows signs of quality, too.

It seems like we could have easily afforded $4-5M/1 for Andrus and still had some for the deadline, if needed. When you subtract what we are paying Chang, it's an even better choice. I realize Mondesi has some nice potential, and Arroyo does well, when healthy, but this seems like a bargain missed, and bargains is where Bloom is supposed to be at his best. Having Andrus in the fold would have allowed Kike to be the primary OF fill-in, when not playing 2B or SS. We would have been a bit too crowded at middle IF with Andrus, Kike, Mondesi and Arroyo all out of options, but with Kike's ability to play OF, very well, I think they could have worked out a plan where everyone plays enough to stay happy. I guess Chang on the bench won't bitch about it.

He's getting old, but he seems to be aging well.

Andrus signs with CWS for just $3M/1. This seems like a big whiff by Bloom & Co.

Fair enough. Nothing is a given in baseball.

Saturday February 25th is the first ST'ing game. We are less than a week away from "play ball!" BOS @ ATL (Cool Today Park in North Port, FL)

This is the part I find most interesting and in a way, exciting about the 2023 Sox: Could it be possible that Sale & Paxton start 5 games each, Yoshida hits .740 and Bello & Casas do nothing better than average, but we still get a bunch of other things right and hit paydirt? Devers has a career year. Kike plays like second half of '21. Turner plays like second half of '22. Mondesi busts out in his walk year. Duvall repeats 2019. Kluber improves on '22. Jansen, Martin, Schreiber and Houck just pitch like 2022. Whitlock and Pivetta give us 30 solid starts, each. Arroyo stays healthy and hit .his norm of .730. Dugo plays more like earlier in his career. One or two from Mata, Walter, Crawford, Wink and Murphy shine in '23. We could strike out for the top 5 you listed and still be okay.

If you count that sweep and the 3-2 win over CLE, they ended the season at 41-45, and yet these Yankee fans are gloating, like they are defending champs, or something. Yes, projections have them rightfully ranked ahead of us and other ALE teams, but talk about question marks and relying on dubious or injury-prone players. Their list is about as long as ours. The difference is they have 2-3 solid studs in Judge, Cole and maybe Stanton to our one (Devers), but the rest are pretty much as questionable as our and other ALE teams have. Cole: He's let up 9 ERs in his last 20 IP in the postseason. His 3.84 ERA/3.90 FIP over his last 22 starts of 2022 is pretty good, but it does not match: 2.50/2.64 in 2019 2.84/3.89 in 2020 3.23/2.92 in 2021 2.78/2.56 in his first 11 starts of 2022 He turns 33, this year. Judge just had perhaps the best season since Barroid Bonds, and it will be hard for him to repeat that at age 31. Stanton has put together 2 seasons in a row with 450+ PAs at an .821 OPS. He's 33, and these are the 3 Yankee "givens." Now, the questionables: Rodon: He just turned 30 and might have the best starts for a SP'er since 2021, so why is he a question mark? Well, 310 IP in the last 2 seasons is not spectacular, and his record before 2021 can be frightening, depending on what stretch you choose to look at. 9 games started '19-'20 (5.74 ERA). His career numbers before 2021 were fine, but not great (4.14 ERA in 92 GS'd from '15-'20.) Kluber '15-'20: 134 GS 3.07 ERA C Sale '15-'20: 147 GS 3.21 ERA Paxton '15-'20: 119 GS 3.72 ERA Now, I'd be a hypocrite to say the last 2 years don't mean as much as the previous 6 years, but previous years do matter. Cortes: This kid looks like the real deal, and at age 28, one could rightfully argue he is not in the "questionable category." He's had an awesome 42 starts over the last 2 seasons with a 2.61 ERA, so why am I calling doubt to his projection? Kind of a small sample size. Severino: Soon to be just 29, this guy's GS'd record since 2018 is worse than Sale & Paxton, yet somehow, Yankee fans brush off Sale & Paxton while having high hopes for Sevy. . 2019-2022: 22 GS 2.85 ERA (Much better ERA, but way fewer starts) 36 GS 4.09 Sale 35 GS 4.18 Paxton Montas, German, Schmidt: Some nice depth, but some are hurt and others are up and downers. Holmes: He's had a nice season and a half run, and like Cortes, is close to being off the questionable list, but it's only been his last 93 IP that have been impressive. He was stunning over his first 38 outings in 2022 (0.46 ERA), but his ending raises questions: 24 games 5.92 ERA/ 4.59 FIP and .748 OPSA Loaisiga: He's been a pretty good pitcher for 3 years, but nothing all that great (3.05 ERA/3.21 FIP). Unlike most Yankee pitchers, he did very well after Aug 22, but pretty much sucked over the first 4 months of the season. Peralta: He's had a couple very good seasons with the Yanks Trivino: He finished strongly for the Yanks, but was very unreliable before that. Kahnle, Marinaccio, King, Weissert, Abreu, DGarcia: Meh. Catchers: Trevino & Higgy: .655 team catching OPS in 2022. Good D, though, but these guys are not a net plus. 1B: Rizzo turns 34, this year. He has done well with the Yanks 0.804 OPS), but he was showing serious decline since his great 2019 season, except for '22: .755 2020 .792 2021 .817 2022 2B: Torres/LeMahieu: Torres has been trade bait for a couple years and for good reason. He's never come close to how he looked from '18-'19. He's had a .730 OPS over the last 3 seasons. 3B: Donaldson/LeMahieu: Josh is a 37 year old cancer growth. DJ is no where near who he was in 2020. He turns 35, this summer and has a .721 OPS since 2021. SS: Kiner-Falefa: Good glove: .642 OPS. Nuff said. LF: Hicks/Cabrera (Stanton): LOL! CF: Bader: Pretty good get by Cashman, but losing Montgomery was horrible. He turns 29, this year and hit .650 in 2022, while playing just over half a season. He's never had more than 427 PAs in a ML season, and that was back n 2018. RF: Judge: He's great, but is highly unlikely to improve or even repeat 2022. DH: Stanton (Donaldson): Stanton slipped to .759 in 2022 at age 32. That's about a hundred points lower than his previous worst season as a rookie baCk in 2010. Once could say he is a question and nasty or Clay are not.

A lot comes down to expectations vs hopes. I doubt any Sox fan expected us to be ranked ahead of the Yanks before this winter began. I'm sure many hoped we'd have done more, me included, but my expectation was to get better- a lot better. Is 6-9 games better good enough? To most Sox fans, no. Before the winter began, I had higher hopes we'd be looking at maybe an 8-12 game improvement over 2022, but 6-10 seems more likely, to me. We've left a lot of cash on the table, but with incentives and deadline deals possible, maybe it's not as much as it appears to be. I feel like an Andrus and Chafin signings would have got us closer to 9-12 more wins, but I like just about every move made, this winter- one by one. I had hoped for a bigger splash here and there: more quality over quantity, as I like to say, but having so many choices has it's advantages, too. Within the last 12 months, we have made 3 long term signings: Devers (1 + 10), Story (6) and Yoshida (5.) We had gone about 3 years without one. (Sale was extended in March 2019.) This winter, we also added way more 2 year-deals, instead of the pattern of 1 year deals we've seen since the Sale extension. While 2 year deals don't really instill much of a sense of continuity, it does offer more stability in the roster as so many prospects are looking to join the 26, this year and next.