moonslav59

Not only were they missing an ace in 2022, they lost the 3 guys closest to that role (Nate, Wacha & Hill) and left their replacement slots to Kluber, the returning Sale/Paxton and the converted pen arm in Whitlock. If you want a great rotation, you have to build from the top- not the middle or bottom. The next thing you do is add at the top, again. We added Pedro, but didn't win until we added Schiiling. We had Schilling but didn't win again, until adding Beckett. We had Lester but didn't win until adding Lackey. We added ace Price, but did not win until adding Sale. We haven't even added the first ace.

Just looking at improving on Brasier/Ort/Kelly.

Indeed, and Devers is still in peak prime. Ages 22-25 16.5 fWAR Devers: 14.2 bWAR/ 132 OPS+ 16.1 fWAR Bogey: 15.3 bWAR/ 111 OPS+

Joely may be ready by early May.

We might think of moving Crawford to the pen, when Bello or Paxton are ready, but I doubt we do that. If Sale keeps sucking, do they try him in the pen? (I know- blasphemy!)

Certainly reasonable, and both Bogey and Devers are not known for their defense, but the age thing tilted the balance for me. I think Devers can and might still get better!

Even after we got Mondesi, I wanted Andrus or a trade for Mateo or Rojas or...

Nobody is denying that, except 2021 was exciting. Adding context is not denying the truth.

We don't know. We do know the Sox never offered what he wanted or would take. Maybe he'd have taken $200/8 or $180/7. Some think he might have taken $160M/6. I'd have give the $160 maybe the others. I don't think he'd have taken any of those, but that's just me. I'll leave it at that. Either way, I have Devers second.

For me: 1. Betts 2. Devers 3. Bogey but not at anywhere near what he wanted. Sorry.

100%. This is Bloom's team. The Sale contract and performance is just a fraction of the budget and 2023 performance let down. He should sink or swim based on this year and how we look going forward.

I think it was more about bring down the DD apologists a notch.

I hate to blame Henry, because he has been following a plan that has worked, although we are due for the next winning cycle, like yesterday, and demanding we trade Betts after he turned down a very fair offer is really nobody’s fault. The massive budget cut and state of the farm in 2020, and the slow rise in spending until the Story signing makes it hard for me to blame Bloom or Cora. It just is what it is. I hate to blame add, too, because I like what he did, fully knowing a price would be paid, someday, and JH allowed him to do it all. I guess I’m just not a big blame giving guy, but here is my take: 30% Henry’s budget cuts 25% DD’s residuals 20% Bloom 15% Players 10% Cora

Yes. The sample sizes at HOU and MN are tiny and lop-sided. Also, I only railed about his CERA not that he was a bad catcher. I never wanted him benched or said he was an overall net negative value player.

Of course. I would not count 2020, and even 2021 saw very limited added spending, but I expected better than this after 3 years and the recent opening up to spending way more.

Murphy started last season very strongly, so maybe they felt the end of 2022 was more of the fluke.

It is rare that you get enough large and balanced enough sample sizes between specific pitchers and catchers from the same team during the same season to compare, so unless you have this, using it in other ways is nonsense and pointless. There have been some examples where the sample sizes are large enough with 5-7 pitchers in a given year, and one can see wide disparities, and when those disparities repeat year after year, I think some conclusions can be drawn, and it is not nonsense. One can also look at OPSA numbers. Would we call that COPSA?

If it was a five year plan, signing Yoshida, Story, Whitlock and Devers, recently does overlap into that window. You do need some vets mixed in. Agree. Thinking Bloom feels the job is his forever is pure fantasy. No Red Sox GM ever thinks that. Well, maybe Theo did, then he bolted.

So many catchers catch certain pitchers, almost exclusively or with total exclusivity. That makes a big difference in results. It's like comparing a pitchers numbers who faces Mike Trout 27 times a game vs another who faces Chang 27 times. One would expect a great disparity, no matter what the skill level of the pitcher was. CERA is a stat that can only really be used to compare catchers on the same team who catch the same pitchers in large enough sample sizes. That makes it highly restrictive. In theory, you should throw out all stats from pitchers who only catch one catcher or the sample size with one catcher is way too small to judge. Then, RP'ers often have sample sizes that are too small to judge. That may leave just a handful of pitchers to compare how well they do with one catcher vs the other. If there seems to be a wide disparity, one can conclude one catcher might get more out of more pitchers than the other guy. Sometimes, you see years and years of pretty consistent and often wide disparities between one catcher and the other- year by year, over and over (like Vtek vs our back-ups and Vaz v Leon and to a lesser extent between Vaz and Plawecki. When I see several disparities of 1.00 to 2.00 or more in CERAs, I draw conclusions. Others see the same numbers and do not draw the same conclusions. In this 2023 case, what if Wong caught all of Sale's pitches, while McGuire caught Whitlock and Houck only? One can think maybe Sale would do better and Whitlock and Houck worse, but one can also wonder, if the CERA disparities would change drastically in McGuire's favor. Towards the end of the year, we can compare- pitcher by pitcher- and see who shines more.

Well said. I was just responding to the statement that we have "none of those things." Yes, one is pretty close to "none," but I'm hopeful someone like Whitlock, Bello, Casas or even Mayer or Rafaela soon rise into long-lasting fan faves.

Since the bottom fell out in 2020, the Sox are 175-162. Of course, 2021 was responsible for the plus.

Woo is being one hit and losing 15-0. When it rains, it pours. Murphy 1 IP 7 Hits, 8 ER, 3 BB, 1 K Garino 1.2 IP 5 Hits, 4 ER, 1 BB, 1 K POR won 3-2 Van Belle 6 IP, 3H, 0ER, 0 BB, 4K McDonough and Rosier both 2-4 Salem Paez 4.0 IP, 2H, 1ER, 1BB, 4K Coffey, Ravelo & McElveny all have 2 hits, so far

Did you know this? (Note looking at overall CERA is very misleading. Comparing pitcher by pitcher is the best way to determine who gets the most from a staff.) CWS CERA 2022 (Most PAs with...) 3.38 McGuire (Kopech, Velazquez, Lynn) 4.01 Zavala (Cease, Giolito, Cueto) 4.21 Grandal (Cueto, Gilito, Cease) 4.30 Perez (small sample sizes) TOR 2021 CERA 3.09 Kirk (Ray, Manoah, Matz) 4.10 McGuire (Stripling, Ryu, Manoah) 4.21 Jansen (Ryu, Matz, Ray)

Did you bother to look at the research? Neither Franco or Aroz. hit 3rd or 4th in the top 2 for the 3 slot or top 3 in the 4 slot in 2022 or top 2 in either in 2021. Total up all PAs batting 3rd and 4th, and they are down the list. Here's another view: Arozarena 596 PAs batting 3rd and 4th 806 PAs elsewhere Franco 245 batting 3rd and 4th 570 others 2022 Franco 253 2nd 87 3rd 4 5th, 6th and 7th Arozarena did bat most 3rd and 4th in '22 206 3rd 171 4th 125 5th 104 1st and 2nd 39 6 to 8th but, not even close in 2021: 234 1st 131 2nd 72 3rd 65 4th 62 5th 41 6th to 8th

Devers is not a fan fave? I know: just one sucks.