moonslav59

Yes, my bad. It was 2 starts before he was okay, except for a solo shot.

When you look at the records of the teams we have played, being 18-14 looks a lot better than if we were 18-14 vs mostly losing teams. I'm not sure why some feel it doesn't matter much. Yes, we still need to beat the bad teams we will be playing more of than other teams, going forward, but I'd rather be 18-14 with an easier schedule ahead than a tougher one, and this might make all the difference in the world in a tight wild card race in Spetember.

It's a near certainty everyone will not be or stay hot all year- same with staying healthy. We may get Story and Duvall back and lose 2-3 others. Yes, if it happens, it's good problem to have, but it is nice to see so many players gelling at the same time. Sometimes sticking with struggling players works (Renfroe, Kike & Dalbec in 2021) and sometimes it doesn't (Dalbec and Duran 2022, to name just a few.)

Not sure what the first sentence is getting at, but one could wonder how someone knows everyone who does not believe in clutch as a skill can not have been clutch in their lifetime. Nobody disagrees about some players coming through in clutch moments vs many that don't. The issue is whether it is a skill or not, or maybe just random luck.

His last start really widened the gaps between 1st and 3rd time through the line-up. He did pretty good the start before. I totally agree, and have displayed these splits several times, before, but we should remember this: Sample Size 234 PAs 1st time through 217 2nd time 59 3rd time. 59 PAs is just about 2 complete games allowing just 5 baserunners.

Not so fast. If Duran and Casas are FT'ers, that leaves one of these guys making up that "elite bench:" Kike 2B/CF Turner DH (not 1B, if Casas da man) Yoshida LF/DH Duvall LF/DH (not CF, if Duran da man) Three positions (2B, LF, DH): 4 players. I'm sure Cora could up his "rest day for hot hitter" strategy and create a complex rotation plan with maybe a platoon, here and there. L: Casas, Duran, Valdez (kills RHPs) R: Turner, Kike, Arroyo, Refsnyder Catchers will settle into binky match-ups with SP'ers. Will be 100% FT: Devers, Duvall, Story, Verdugo, Yoshida

Now, go totally into la-la land. What if everyone is healthy, and Casas, Duran, Valdez, Arroyo, McGuire and Wong are all doing very well? Over the past few days, this actually looks like it's not total fantasy.

So, I must have been randomly lucky back in my day.

Calling all Clowns wanting Brasier DFA'd... errr....

What a difference one week can make. It's funny, because this team still has the same major flaws we have been picking apart for a long time, but suddenly it looks like just about every trade and signing Bloom has made- recent and now back to the Betts deal, is turning to gold before our eyes. I'm not claiming this is anything definitive, at all. It is NOT! I do think it is fine example of why we should not judge so harshly over small sample size- Good or bad. Incredible as it may seem, having Dugo and Wong makes everyone forget Downs. Still having Betts would be great, but things are looking much brighter, now, which is another example of why judging trades before the younger guys have matured is short-sighted. Where are all those "insiders" who cried "Gross overpay" on Yoshida? Not to put Vaz down, at all, but it was a lost season and he had 2 months left on the team: welcome Valdez! (Maybe Abreu amounts to something, too.) How about our new catching tandem? (Yes, it's only a month.) Imagine, if Duvall didn't get hurt. He could have been the best move Bloom made in a year. Turner, Jansen, Martin- "Over the hill," we heard. Duran "should never get another chance with the Sox." Hell, even Arroyo is turning it around. Maybe Casas, too. It looks like everyone is on a cloud, and I'm with you, but we will see struggles again, at some point. We still have major gaps. Some of these guys will cool off- maybe some I just pumped up. Maybe too many will, at the same time, and we will be back how were were, last week- lick-a-dee-split. I hope not, but the same holes are there. What encourages me is that other teams have major holes, too. We are seeing some, this series. As much as MLB seems to be moving towards parity, I look at our road to the playoffs, and it will not be easy. The teams we are ahead of are HOU, NYY, LAA, SEA and CLE. Those teams are not push-overs. If just one passes us, we'll be out, unless we can pass TOR or BAL. It's going to be a long season.

Crooked numbers, straight numbers- we find a way.

It's typical MLB. Plus, it's not like Bloom held off calling up a blue chip prospect who was eating up minor league pitching. Valdez was very likely thrilled he got the call this early in his career. He was hitting .645 and was like our 15th rated prospect.

I made that joke, last night.

Nobody believed me.

It's interesting that 2 of our worst offensive positions are 2B/SS and 1B. The return of Story can change one outlook. The return of Duvall can push Turner to 1B and Yoshida or Duvall to DH. Mondesi may do better than the other middle IF slot, but right now, Arroyo is heating things up. Our offense sure looks all set and deep, once guys return.

Batters have larger sample sizes vs SP'ers than 9th inning RP'ers. Yes, these days most closers are among the best pitchers on the staff, but back in Papi's day, maybe not so much.

Remember when people thought Price was a choke artist?

Yes, you are right, the random generated sample sizes that match up almost precisely with actual results do NOT prove or disprove clutch as a repeatable skill.

I guess Schilling turned a lot of clutch hitters into chokes.

Because a random generated sample size distribution would have some pitchers with numbers like Beckett and Schilling that has nothing to do with the computer being "clutch." I've do not hear anyone say that was a "crucial hit" as much as saying a "clutch hit."

The thing is, if you randomly created sample sizes in clutch situations- many which are comparatively small, you would not end up with every hitter batting exactly like his career norm any more than you would, if you looked at his Monday numbers vs Wednesday. Some would do better- some would do worse. Just the fact that some players have better numbers is this highly selective sample sizes, does not prove clutch is a skill.

Maybe not. Many teams had SP'ers way better than their 8th and 9th inning guys.

Yes, a clutch hit is different from a lead off hit in a 10-0 game. Clutch exists- just not as a repeatable skill. You mention Schill: what about Beckett, who was on his way to being the best of the best, then... Ooops!

Look how many posters have built up resistance to me!

You can actually build up some resistance to some things like cyanide, if you take small doses over a period of time.