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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    Funny, how Pivetta lets up 2 runs in 3 and actually lowers his ERA.
  2. moonslav59
    Some hard hit balls, tonight, but not nearly enough, even if they all were placed better. We've stopped walking on a regular basis, too. Paxton has returned to the question mark pile. It seems like just when we start to get our hopes up, we pull out a losing streak. I hope we can break this trend, soon. It seems like our "super subs" are running out of steam. We need Duvall and Story back and in form.
  3. moonslav59
    It was a hypothetical discussion. Nevermind. We all agree: he stinks.
  4. moonslav59
    That was insane.
  5. moonslav59
    Drohan got shelled, again in AAA 2.2 IP 6 H 5 ER 3 BB 1 K Dalbec homers, but Woo got smashed 15-2.
  6. moonslav59
    Pivetta was our top IP guy from 2021-2022. I made a hypothetical point about having an ERA equal to his xFIP (4.55). 4.56 was his actual ERA from 2021-2022 with the Sox, and he was top 30 in MLB in IP. How is that silly? I'm not trying to defend Pivetta. He deserved to be demoted from the rotation and was not pitching well enough to be a good 5th starter for anyone. Someone else uses xFIP to tell me pitchers aren't as good as they appear, so I switch it back on him, as Pivetta always has a better xFIP than ERA. I guess that could be viewed as silly, but to argue Pivetta wasn't a good 5th starter from 2021-2022 because of a lack of IP, is pretty silly, to me. He was a good 5th starter for us for 2+ years, and when compared to most 5th starters, he had more IP by a lot, a better ERA and a better xFIP. Nothing silly about that.
  7. moonslav59
    These teams will likely be out of it at the deadline: BTV Values on Pitchers and other players of interest (some listed as salary dumps to offset the return needed to acquire) BTV Player Position and yrs of control OAK 12.9 Waldichuck SP 5+ yrs 16.6 Ruiz OF 5+ 9.7 Laureano OF 2+ -7.3 Diaz UTL 1+ KCR 45.1 Singer SP 3+ 14.4 Lynch SP 4+ 11.5 Barlow RP 1+ -14.1 Dozier 1B 2+ -9.7 Lyles SP 1+ CWS 61.5 Cease SP 2+ 20.8 Giolito SP .7 28.1 Anderson SS1+ 10.3 Kopech SP 2+ -26.2 Beni LF 4+ -9.2 Jimenez OF 3+ DET 23.0 Manning SP 4+ 23.0 Skubal SP 3+ 13.0 Turnbull SP 1+ -31.8 Baez SS 4+ WSH 29.8 Gray SP 4+ 27.4 Gore SP 4+ 26.5 Abrams SS 5+ -40.7 Corbin SP 1+ -124.4 Strasburg SP 3+ CIN 48.3 Lodolo LHP 6+ 30.2 Ashcraft SP 5+ -25.9 Votto 1B 1+ COL Don't see anyone. CHC 32.5 Steele LHP 4+ 11.8 Stroman SP 1+ -21.4 Taillon SP 3+ These may be sellers, if out by then: CLE SEA MIA PIT SFG STL LAA SDP PHI
  8. moonslav59
    I don't think being "in it" will matter. I think he'll be traded.
  9. moonslav59
    They did pay Charlie Morton $1.67M per start in 2020... LOL. (9 starts in that short year.) 4.73 ERA
  10. moonslav59
    You never know: maybe Kluber can do okay as a one inning RP'er. It's not like we have 8 solid RP'ers and we'll need to demote a good pitcher to keep Kluber on the 26 for a while longer. Let's see where things stand when Schreiber and Bleier come off the IL.
  11. moonslav59
    Dugo and Casas are sitting vs the lefty.
  12. moonslav59
    Sorry, I did not see one was started.
  13. moonslav59
    Agreed, but I thought they announced a plan to go with one more start for the 6, then decide. We do have a double header with TBR coming up and no day off for the 4 days prior, so we will need a 6th man or pen game, then.
  14. moonslav59
    Sounds better, but rarely works out. ' I will ay, our past success at identifying the right guy to trade for and giving up packages that have been fair or clear wins for us, even in hindsight, is no guarantee of future success.
  15. moonslav59
    4.55 is not bad for a 5th starter. That is my point. These days 4.55 is a #3-#4 on most teams and don't go 170 IP, either. Pivetta has given IP. he led the team in IP from 2021 to 2022 and was 28th in MLB in IP, and his ERA was 4.56. 4.56 ranked 11th out of 150 pitchers from 2021-2022. Yes, that is "bad," but we are comparing him to other 5th starters ot #2s and 3s. He does have a high hard hit % of 34%, which placed him at the bottom of the 4th tier out of 5 (119th out of 150.) His Line Drive% was 4oth best out of 150, however at 19.2%
  16. moonslav59
    The Rays trade for a lot of their success stories on their staff. They draft a few real good ones, here and there, but not a ton. They drafted Price, long ago, and also Cobb, Snell and McClanahan but many of their other top pitchers were acquired: Top 12 fWAR pitchers in last 10 years: Chris Archer Blake Snell Davis Price Alex Cobb for Matt Garza Charlie Morton FA Jake Odorizzi for Jamir Shields & Wade Davis Tyler Glasnow (with Shane Baz & Austin Meadows) for Chris Archer Ryan Yarborough for Drew Smyly Drew Smyly for Price Drew Rasmussen for Willy Adames & Trevor Richards Corey Kluber FA They also have a knack at trading away good pitchers right before a steep decline. To me, I look at LAD, ATL and HOU as teams that churn our SP'er after SP'er.
  17. moonslav59
    Pivetta's xFIP has been better than his ERA, every season. Is that what you were trying to say?
  18. moonslav59
    My point was that if his ERA was the same as his xFIP, he'd be a top 5th starter, and you said "no." I never said they were equal.
  19. moonslav59
    Very few teams seem to be able to do it at a sustained rate.
  20. moonslav59
    The article I read does not definitively say that is what happened, but it sounded very believable. Maybe Bloom was afraid signing him would put him past the tax line, but it doesn't look like it to me, assuming Nate and not Kluber, but it would have put us very close to it. I'm not crying over losing Nate, just yet. More time is needed.
  21. moonslav59
    It is a crude way of looking at it, and certainly several teams have better 5th and 6th starters than Pivetta, but I still think a 4.55 ERA would place a pitcher in the #2 to #4 slot range for maybe 20 teams. 4.55 would likely be better than all but 4-6 team's number 5's. Just a guess.
  22. moonslav59
    I'm not even sure it should ever be considered, at all. The success rate is so small. Our success rate on trading for very good pitchers is much higher (Pedro, Schill, Beckett and Sale and Nate/Porcello.) I wouldn't call ERod an ace, and he was a prospect when we traded for him, but he is a top 5 Sox pitcher in fWAR since 2003. 2000>>> 8+ fWARs 1. Pedro 2. Lester 3. Beckett 4. Sale 5. Wake (longevity award) 6. Schilling 7. ERod 8. Buchholz 9. Porcello 10. Price 11. Lowe 12. Lackey 13. Nate .
  23. moonslav59
    Take a look at all the MLB 5th starters. First of all, look at 2022, and you have to lower the IP to 80 to get a sample size of 150 pitchers (30 teams and 5 starters.) If the top 30 are #1s, 31-60 are #2's and so on... 2022 ERAs: #1- 1.75 to 2.94 #2- 2.99 to 3.55 #3- 3.58 to 4.19 #4- 4.23 to 4.90 (a 4.55 ERA would be a solid #4 SP'er) #5- 4.92 to 6.31 Then, consider Pivetta's durability and IP factor. At 4.55, he'd be a good #4.
  24. moonslav59
    Yup. That has been my mantra.
  25. moonslav59
    Just saying, I don't think he just sat on his hands waiting to swoop in on Kluber.
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