moonslav59

If we want to go with just anecdotal evidence, let's take the team we know the very most about: the Boston Red Sox. Rotations: focus on 1-2 punches and how many GS outside the top 4-5 SP'ers.) 1967: Lonborg "and 3 days of rain." (He started 39 games in a different era.) Lee Stange 2.77 is awesome, but he pitched in relief for 11 of his 35 games. Gary Bell 3.16 for 24 starts was awesome, too. Darrell Brandon 4.17 (19 GS and 20 RP gms) 56 GS by 8 others (including 11 Bennett & Santiago, 9 Morehead, 8 by Rohr & Waslewski) By the stats, it looks like they had 2-3 solid SP'ers, but in that era, it was really only 1. 1972 (missed the ALCS by 0.5 games in the unbalanced games played strike year) 35 Pattin 3.24 (looks like an ace in today's game, but not then.) 30 Siebert 3.80 (a decent #2) 22 McGlothen 3.41 21 Curtis 3.73 19 Tiant 1.91 (27 GS by others, including 16 by Culp and 7 Krausse) This was a decent rotation, and we don't know how they might have done had they made the 4 team playoffs.) (The '73 team won more games than '72 but finished 6 games out: Tiant 35/3.34, Lee 33/2.75, Curtis 30/3.58, Pattin 30/4.32, 15 Moret 15/3.17 and only 19 GS by others.) Here is where I feel "the era" changed... 1975 Does not checked either box, but Tiant, Wise and Lee were a better 1-2-3 than surrounding years. 35 Tiant 4.02 (Hero in the playoffs) 35 Wise 3.95 34 Lee 3.95 20 Cleveland 4.43 16 Moret 3.60 20 by others: 11 Pole 4.42 I'd argue this was a deeper rotation than previous seasons, but it still lacked a serious 1-2 punch. 1977 team won more games than 1975, but finished 2.5 out. 4 of the top 4 SP'ers by GS had ERAs over 4.26. (Tiant was at 4.53 and Jenkins was #2 at 3.68) 1978 won 99 games and missed playoffs due to 163 game loss to NYY 36 Torres 3.96 35 Eck 2.99 31 Tiant 3.31 24 Lee 3.46 16 Wright 3.57 (11 Ripley 5.55 & 10 by others.) This team seemed to have the formula to win. A nice 1-2-3 punch with Lee as the #4. 1986 lost WS in 7 games to NYM 33 Clemens 2.48 (perhaps the best SP the Sox have ever had, along with Pedro.) 30 Boyd 3.78 (nice numbers, but I'm not sure we can say he was a solid #2 punch.) 26 Nipper 5.38 (Yikes!) 25 Hurst 2.99 (could be viewed as a solid #2) 16 Seaver 3.80 31 by others (10 Sellers 4.94/ 6 by Brown 5.34) 1995 finished first in 3 division AL 29 Erik Hanson 4.24 27 Wake 2.95 23 Clemens 4.18 21 Z Smith 5.61 14 Eshelman 4.85 32 by others (12 Cormier 4.07) 1998 a 92 win team that made the playoffs as a WC team thanks to Pedro 33 Pedro 2.89 33 Wake 4.58 31 Saberhagen 3.96 (a decent #2, that year) 23 Avery 5.02 10 Lowe 4.03 32 by others (8 by Wasdin 5.25, Schourek 4.30 and Rose 6.93) 1999 a 94 win team that lost in the ALCS 29 Pedro 2.07 (WOW!) 27 Portugal 5.51 26 Rapp 4.12 22 Saberhagen 2.95 18 Rose 4.87 40 by others (17 Wake 5.08) (2002 won 93 games and missed the playoffs: (32 Lowe 2.58, 30 Pedro 2.26 was a great 1-2 punch! Then, 29 Burkett 4.53, 23 Castillo 5.07, 15 Wake 2.81 w 30 gms as RP) 33 GS by others (12 Fossum 3.46) 2003 We all know the story of 2003 33 Wake 4.09 33 Lowe 4.47 30 Burkett 5.15 29 Pedro 2.22 That's a lot of starts from the top 4, but no solid 1-2 punch) 14 Fossum 5.47 23 by others is low. (10 Suppan 5.57) 2004 First Ring in over 8 decades! Checked both boxes: Great 1-2 punch and minimal starts outside the top 4-5 in the rotation: 33 Pedro 3.90 124 ERA+ in this hitter's era 33 Lowe 5.42 32 Schill 3.26 148 ERA+ 30 Wake 4.87 29 Arroyo 4.03 (120 ERA+) Only 5 GS outside the top 5! Lowe and Wake did not have great seasons. 2005 won 95 games but lost in ALDS (No Pedro & Lowe) 33 Wake 4.15 32 Arroyo 4.51 32 Clement 4.57 30 Wells 4.45 16 W Miller 4.95 19 by others (11 by Schill 5.69) It's amazing we won so many games with this rotation, but we did not get far in the playoffs. 2007 World Champs, again! (Beckett & Schilling as the solid 1-2 punch, but not much support beyond them.) 32 Dice-K 4.40 31 Wake 4.76 (almost 400 IP from our 3-4 SP'ers) 30 Beckett 3.27 24 Schilling 3.87 23 Tavarez 5.15 22 GS from others (11 by Lester at 4.57 and 7 by Gabbard at 3.73) (2008 won 95 games and lost in the ALCS: 33 Lester 3.21, 30 Wake 4.13, 29 Dice-K 2.90- maybe a good #2, that year, 27 Beckett 4.03, 15 Buch 6.75) 29 by others. Once could argue this rotation had a pretty solid 1-2-3 and they should have gone farther.) (2009 also won 95 games but lost in the ALDS: 32 Beckett 3.86, 32 Lester 3.41, 24 Penny 5.61, 21 Wake 4.58, 16 Buch 4.21 but 37 by others w 12 by Dice-K 5.76 and 8 by Smoltz at 8.33.) We had a decent 1-2 punch but not much more.) 2013 was the 3rd ring! 97 win team: Had a 1-2 punch but 28 GS outside the top 5. 33 Lester 3.75 29 Lackey 3.52 29 Dempster 4.57 27 Doubront 4.32 16 Buch 1.74 (WOW!) Added Peavy 10 GS with a 4.04 ERA (2016 won 93 games and lost in ALDS: 35 Price 3.99, 33 Porcello 3.15 was a solid 1-2, but then... 24 Wright 3.33, 21 Buch 4.78, 20 ERod 4.71 and 29 by others w 13 by Pom at 4.59.) (2017 also won 93 games, but Price was hurt: 33 Porcello 4.65, 32 Sale 2.90, 32 Pom 3.32, 24 ERod 4.19, 15 Fister 4.88 and 26 by others w Price at 11/3.38) 2018 was the 4th ring year! It had a very decent 1-2-3 and even 1-2-3-4 punch- 5 with Nate added. 33 Porcello 4.28 30 Price 3.58 27 Sale 2.11 (WOW!) 23 ERod 3.82 11 Nate 3.33 38 by others does not "check the second box, but the trade for Nate explains some of this. 13 GS by Johnson 4.17, 11 by Pom 6.08, 8 Velezquez 3.28) (2021 won 92 games and went farther than many imagined: 32 Nate 3.75, 31 ERod 4.74, 31 Pivetta 4.53, 22 Richards 4.87 some as RP, 22 Perez 4.74 some as RP, 25 by others w 13 by Houck at 3.52. Erod did not really provide the 2nd "punch.") It's my contention that having a solid 1-2 (or 1-2-3) punch with fewer GS outside the top 4-5 best SP'ers does not guarantee a ring, but with very few exceptions, every ring year we had checked both boxes. Many seasons we came close also checked both boxes or checked one box with emphasis. There are other ways to win rings. The Sox have not been very good at winning rings without 2-3 solid SP'ers in the rotation. This does not mean we cannot win, unless we have 2-3, but to me, pitching has always been the best key to winning. Not the only one, but the best.

I get the argument that teams have won without great or even good SP'ing. The Royals were another example. It happens rarely. That is not evidence to support the fact that adding 2 SP'ers instead of 1 SP'er and a decent RHB who plays plus 3B D is the better idea. I can find many examples of teams winning despite a poor fielding 3Bman. How about starting with 2018?

If we spend almost the same for Chapman as Gray or Montgomery, why would it have to be so unlikely?

It's just about who might have the higher WAR: it's about who they replace and that differential. Adding Chapman unleashes a complicated formula on what is gained over the status quo. We may gain on D at 3B, but lose on D in LF (Yoshida DH>LF) and CF (Duran LF>CF,) and probably PAs would be taken away from Rafaela, Abreu and Refsnyder- maybe Urias, too. What is the net gain in WAR? Adding a solid 150+ IP not only would be a major gain in the rotation WAR, but would also boost the pen WAR as someone like Houck or Crawford would move to the pen and replace Murphy, Kelly and a slew of lesser arms. I see the net plus on WAR by adding a solid pitcher as significantly more than Chapman adds. By how much? Who knows. The simple theory is this: Team A has a 1.0WAR 3Bman a 0.5 WAR SP. Does signing a 5 WAR 3B add more to the team than a 4WAR SP'er? (Then, what if the 0.5 WAR SP replaces a -0.2 RP in the pen, while the 1.0 WAR 3Bman helps the bench, but not at a 1.0 clip, due to way less playing time.

Maybe? 1B/DH Devers/Casas 2B Yorke SS Mayer 3B Story

His repeated mention of Yorke and not Anthony and others exposes his ignorance.

I have to ask: what's up with Tommy Pham? Does he need to be drug tested?

You can sign any two of these guys, which two do you choose? Hypothetical: same cost at a 4 year deal for all. Chapman Gray Snell Yamamoto Montgomery To me, any combination without Chapman is better than any with Chapman.

Like on the Exorcist? Apparently, OAA has replaced fWAR as the most important stat of the day. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see us improve our corner IF defense, and moving Devers to 1B has almost always appealed to me. If Chapman costs as much as Duvall, I'd be driving notin's bandwagon, but we need funds for pitching- the more the better. (The more, the more likely we do better, is more like it.) I'd almost rather have us add no RHB and spend it all on pitching, and even trade a top prospect for another pitcher than to spend over 30% of our winter budget on 3B/RHB. I'd rather spend it all on pitching and play Urias at 3B 75% of the time than sign Chapman while skimping on pitching. I think we can cobble together a good enough OF with Yoshida at DH: LF: Duran-Refsnyder platoon (Abreu/Yoshida as depth) Should end up near or over .800 CF: Rafaela (Abreu/Duran as depth) The big gamble. RF: Dugo or Duvall, if we trade Dugo (Abreu as depth) Most easily predictable results, here.

Kansas upset #6 Oklahoma. #13 Utah is beating #8 Oregon, so maybe ND jumps up 2 slots, this week. (OKL may still rank higher.)

Seager and Garcia are dialed in!

If we went with Yoshida in LF, Rafaela/Duran in CF, and Dugo/Abreu in RF, it is no added cost. If we add Duvall and trade Dugo it may cost next to nothing. If we add Duvall and trade Duran, it would still cost way less than Chapman. I agree, improving 3B and 1B D id better than improving LF D, and Chapman fills the RHB role, well. I just don't think we should spend that big of a percent of our winter budget on 3B/RHB. I'd rather send Yoshida to DH, sign Duvall and use the difference in spending on a better pitcher (s.)

Certainly 3B defense is more important than LF. Your idea does have merit, but moving Yoshida to DH costs nothing, and we have 3 LFs to take his place

Chapman would fill that need. It would also force Yoshida to LF and lessen the need to bolster the OF.

I get that. What’s worse is that I thought they tried harder in 2022 and 2023 and got worse results

It's that time of year! What else is there to talk about?

Is 3B and 1B a higher overall need area than any other Sox positions? I know the two corner IF'ers we have were worst or near worst in '23 on D. D is not everything. Besides, we could also play Urias at 3B and rotate Devers/Casas at 1B/DH, if you see corner IF defense as more important that fixing the rotation and lack of a big RH's bat.

I don't think we were trying to win enough to make the playoffs in 2021. We could have done more, and did at the deadline. I don't think it is all that bold to think we purposely did not spend enough to be serious contenders for even a playoff slot. We signed one guy to two year (Kike.) You don't get serious impact players for $10M/1 (Richards was the one guy at $10M) or less. Come on! Richards, Kike, Marwin, Santana, Andriese, Sawamura and Renfroe? These guys scream for 2022 to arrive. I suppose the hope of ERod and Sale was enough to give hope, but IMO, we did next to nothing to improve our chances significantly. You speak of the core from 2018: they were closer to the core from 2019, minus Betts, Price, Porcello and others. To think the list of guys we signed plus Dugo, Ottavino, Pivetta and a couple other add ons was enough to improve on the non playoff team of 2019 was not enough to think it made us a playoff team is BOLD, I think we differ on what "bold" means..

Where did I say defensive positions of strength. Are you saying 3B and 1B are two of our weakest overall positions? If yes, you clearly no longer value fWAR.

It wasn't. I love Nate and wish we brought him back. He was looking invincible, until last night. I pointed it out.

What's the reality for maybe 6-10 MLB teams in the gutter, every season?

Nobody has hinted at tanking guaranteeing great draft picks or the ability to afford top FAs that work out well. We ar arguing that teams set up their rosters to try and lose, so they better their position for the future- via better draft picks in every round, more bonus pool money and a cleared up budget for the time the team decides to go "all in." Some teams never end up going all in. They "tank" or whatever you want to call it to make more money by spending less.

Of course trading Jansen, but replacing him in kind or better would not be a "punt." It does seem like many or most of your "hypothetical examples" focus on our positions of strength. Sorry, I worded it incorrectly.

I don't see it as "bold." We sucked in 2020 and barely added anyone believed to be a significant impact player. I felt we signed a bunch of 1 year deals as a bridge to 2022 and beyond. I did not think we seriously felt we could win. I don't recall you being optimistic that spring, but maybe I'm wrong. What do you base the bold question on? ERod and Sale's return?

If I had to answer, now, I'd say Yes. Hader may cost more than Jansen and will certainly get more than the one year we owe Jansen, but it would be nice to lock up the closer role, longterm. We could get 2024 salary relief by trading Jansen and get something good in return. It's my philosophy to look at our weakest positions to try and upgrade. I'm not shut down on improving positions of strength, but I tend to focus on high need areas, first. Your ideas have been for 3B (Chapman), SS/2B (Ahmed) and Closer (Hader.) I'm sure I missed some other ideas, but those are not areas I'm looking at, first.