moonslav59

I’ve already back peddled on 2019, saying it may not have been “the major reason,” but maybe it still was. Maybe no farm help was 26% of the issue, not spending to replace Kimbrell, Kelly and others was 25%, declining numbers from returning vets was 25% and restgate was 24%. What was the “major reason?” (They also added nobody at the 2019 deadline.) Obviously, not spending much to upgrade the roster via spending since the deadline of 2019 is a major reason for the near steady decline, 2021 notwithstanding. Declining production from returning vets has been a major issue, and this includes some big name players in their primes that did not meet expectations. Not hitting on a large enough percentage of FA signings and trades was another major issue. It’s also the issue that seems to be debated more than any other issue. Personally, I do not think Bloom has done as poorly in this area as many do, because I looked at his budget and counted all the holes that needed filling and lowered my expectations accordingly, but I digress. What have I missed? Have we had more key injuries than most contenders? I’d say maybe, but not by enough to make it a major issue like the one I just listed. Poor manager? Don’t get me started on this. How would you guys order the reasons for this 4 year decline? (Don’t look just at 2019 or 2020 or 2022: take them all in one big lump.) Humor me. I’d rank… 1. lack of farm infusion that actually began in late 2017, and the effects began to be noticed in ‘19. 2. Decline in production from prime and post prime returning vets. 3. Some blunders in signings and trades. To be honest, I’m not even sure the signings and trades amount to a net negative or one that is a “major” issue, if it was one, but I seem to be in a minority on that one.

This is why I would not extend him, but we should ride the horse that got us here.

For the long term, yes.

Yes, and it sounds about right, or low to me. I’m not talking 1.5 stars- just 1.5 decent to solid players per year. Does that seem high to you? If you get 6 years of control, then lose the player, that’s 9 out of 26 players being homegrown.

I would hold Bloom even more accountable than I already am. However, adding 4 players all at once, assuming they keep doing very well the next 2 months, still leaves us behind that theoretical pace of 1.5 players per year. In theory, since the Devers call up, we should have sen about 9 regular players from the farm. I’m not sure Houck counts, since is not regular. We’ve seen 4-5 not 9. Again, it’s not the only reason we have been mostly s*****, but it has to be a major one. To me, it is the biggest reason.

Agreed. Looking ahead: compared to last winter, losing Bogey, Nate, JD, Wacha, Hill and Strahm, this winter we lose Paxton, Kike, Duvall and maybe Turner, we might look even better in 2024, if JH decides to go over the tax line.

Anybody know how much we paid? There is no penalties or burdens on these signings, so all it is is JH’s money.

Who says we never pursue prospect pitching?

Great!

Realising this is the first step to recovery! Congrats!

I remember reading somewhere, once, that to have a sustainable contender you need to get a decent 1.5 starting players from your system every year. I am sticking to my point that going from Devers in the summer of 2017 to Bello and Casas in the summer of 2022 or 2023 to actually get solid results and only getting one guy- Houck, is a major, if not the most significant reason the team went downhill, fast. Sure, deadwood contracts hurt. Sure, too many players declining all at once, even some still in their prime hurt. Sure, slashing the budget after 2019, hurt like hell, but getting no farm infusion of significance was the ball-buster to me. Not adding anyone in2018 or 2019 added to the demise of the 2019 team. Other factors may have been more significant that one year, grant you that, but overall, from 2019-2022, IMO, little farm help hurt most.

So it would not have been a contender with the 2023 Bello and Duran?

Still, a Bello and Duran might have turned the 2019 team into a contender.

It's no coincidence we sucked from 2019-2022, when we got nobody from the farm.

Thanks for staying on top of this. If Riemer signs, will there be enough bonus money left to entice one HS kid to sign and not go to college? Just wondering, and if yes, which one is most likely to sign?

Just wondering where all the "Fire Bloom Brigade" has gone. Haven't seen some in ages.

Looks like Bloom caught on to the pen building thing, nicely, after 3 years of yuckiness.

The numbers don't lie. Since April 30th, our staff has done comparatively well. fWAR and xFIP are two metrics that are very telling and cover a wide range of factors. We are very close to top 5 in pitching before Schreiber, Houck, Whitlock or Sale return or any pitchers are added via trades. It may be wishful thinking, but I think it still falls under the "realistic" umbrella.

I may end up being wrong on my prediction that Turner would pass JD in OPS by season's end. JD has began to hit well, again. .881 JD .835 Turner Since June 2nd: .805 JD .927 Turner Here are a few interesting 2022 to 2023 comps: OPS 2022>2023 OF .676> .815 (the difference maker) DH .763> .852 (Turner has been awesome!) 1B .683> .814 (Casas da man!) C .694> .691 (not bad, considering Vaz was known for being a good hitting catcher.)

If we add one SP'er and 2 out of the 3 on IL comeback and do well, our staff could be top 4 or 5. Our pitching ranks 7th in fWAR in all of MLB since April 30th. In that same timeframe we are 7th in xFIP at 4.04- just 0.01 from 6th (MN.) We are 5th in runs scored and 6th in team OPS. We could easily be top 5 in pitching and hitting, yet it seems many fans think this team is not worthy of contention status. I know our D sucks, but top 5 in the two major categories is enough for me to think we have a shot at the ring.

Devers was the only one on anyone's radar, up until DD departed. Some might have been luck, or just having the right guys in the system. DD drafted and signed IFAs well, considering the low draft slots and bonus pool money.

That was a very common theme, but quite a few "knocked" DD for making too many prospect trades and not keeping it more balanced. Most agree, the Pom trade might have been the worst, but Espinoza got injured and never came close to reaching expectation. In hindsight, keeping Devers, Bello, Duran and Casas was better than keeping Moncada, Kopech, Margot and all the others. DD may not have even known some of the guys he kept, but he did well on picking who to trade.

We'd still need to make room on the 40, but that is not difficult with Ort still on it. I'd IL Arroyo, then trade Kike.

People who say our farm sucks or is overrated, may not be experts on other farm systems.

I would not consider trading Kike a sell. I'm not sure Duvall would ne, either, as we have Refsnyder as a RH'd OF bat. (I doubt we trade both, unless we are selling Paxton, too.) I don't see us selling Paxton and "buying" another SP'er as some have suggested we might do.