moonslav59

Prospects are fine, but they have two nice LH'd RP'ers, so why not?

I'm not for trading Bello.

That was a contract whereby the company ended their pension plan in favor of a 401K plan with generous company matches. They stuck it to the senior employees badly. I recommended a no vote, while I was at the seniority whereby I got the largest raise possible. I voted no, because I planned on retiring with this company and knew top pay and pension was worth way more than an immediate big gain.

Romy & Campbell are decent depth options at DH. I kinda like the idea of keeping the best offensive team we can, and that includes Duran. I like Bello, too, but Bello for Paredes and King works for me. (Adding Janek would make it a no brainer.) 1. L Anthony LF 2. R Contreras 1B 3. L Duran DH 4. R Paredes 3B 5. L Abreu RF 6. R Story SS 7. R Narvaez C 8. L Mayer/R Romy 2B 9. R Rafaela C

BTV just dropped Paredes' value from about 13 to 8.5. Makes no sense. I can't see us giving Duran and Bello, and just one would be a gross overpay. BTV accepts: 44 Duran, 29 Bello, 3 DHam & 2 Wong for 39 Y Diaz, 9 Paredes, 7 King, 6 Abreu, 4 Sousa (that's their whole pen!)

I don't get many suggestions that come true. I think the last one was Cody Ross...LOL! But Paredes makes too much sense for the Sox, and the Sox have what HOU needs. It's only a question of how much HOU likes what we have to offer and we come up with something both sides can live with. Personally, I think Duran for Paredes and B King is a significant overpay, and I'm not sure why we should be expected to overpay. We have an OF logjam, and they have an infield logjam. If HOU added catcher prospect Janek or their other lefty RP'er Sousa, I'd jump at the deal. Maybe we could give them DHam, if they want or even add Sandlin or Mullins or the like. BTV says Rafaela for Paredes & BKing is closer to fair, and Abreu for the two as well. Just get it done. We'd have a much better offensive team by trading Rafaela, but we'd be better on defense with Rafaela, and Ceddanne has way more years of control. I'd be okay with trading whichever HOU wants/demands. Not counting Anthony... I like Ceddanne most due to years of control and defense in a difficult Fenway position. I like Abreu next due to great defense in Fenway's difficult RF and the extra year of control over Duran. I like Duran third, but that is not a slight on him or his skill level. He rates to be the best batter of these 3 for 2026. (Abreu might prove me wrong.) I'm not for handing him away. I'm super high on Paredes, despite having one less year of control than Duran.

Sorry. I edited my post as you were responding to the unedited one..

Not the Dodgers. Dodgers benefit from a unique agreement from their 2011 bankruptcy that significantly reduces their share of this pool, allowing them to keep a much larger portion (around $300 million annually) compared to other teams, creating a massive financial advantage.

AAV New to the 2026 budget (not on opening day 2025 budget or years of control were ending.) $26M Ranger $21M Contreras $16M Anthony $13M Chapman $11M Gray $10M Hicks $8M Campbell Sure, we lost the salaries of Devers, Buehler, Gio and others, but this new spending is anything but "cheap." It's even relatively cheap. Yes, our spending vs revenue ranking is still bad, but even that has improved, I'm sure of it. Yes, JH was cheap as hell from the Sale/Nate extension before 2019 to winter 2024-2025. He has NOT been after the start or the 2024 season. That may be shocking, but it it's fact, and it's 2 years in a row, now. Going forward, nobody knows. I would not be shocked, if we trade Bello, Sandoval, Duran and Campbell over the next year or two. I won't be shocked if we sign Suarez and keep al but one or two of the guys I just listed,

I would not trade Bello, either. I'd look to trade any or all of Sandoval, Hicks and Masa to save whatever it took to offer ESuarez a deal, with deferrals, if needed, that keeps us unde rthe third tax line. I think it may be doable, and it still fits the model that JH is too cheap to go over line 3. Plus, I'm not for intentionally going over line 3 and facing the draft and bonus pool monies to do so. I'd rather trade to a 3Bman, instead. I don't think it's absurd to think we might sign Suarez. More likely, we trade for Paredes and BKing or Sousa (both decent LH's RP'ers w HOU.)

I'm not sure, but in the case of the union I was part of there were heated discussions between factions of employees before they ultimately voted to pass the contract that gave the bottom 60% a huge raise and the top 10% nothing.

Agreed. SS would be better with Story at 2B, but Cora will need his arm broken to make it happen in 2026.

The majority of MLB players make less than $1.5M. They all vote. They could pressure their union leaders to push for this or they'll vote no.

I think Keaschall is more of a sure bet and plays excellent 2B defense. I'm not sure that's enough to balance out the other part of the trade, but I think I'd say yes. The addition of Ranger makes me feel better about trading away a future pitcher. 5 years of Ranger is a surer bet than 6 years of Tolle. (I also like Early more than Tolle, but it's close.)

When they open the season vs the Nats, there will be 14 players on the field making $10M+ a season- all will be Dodgers.

It's hard to find a match for Duran and a 2B/3Bman. I really like Paredes, and I think we are a better team with Paredes at 3B and Masa at DH than DHam/Romy at 2B and Duran at DH, but it's too much of an overpay to do it one-for-one. If the Astros gave us Brian King and catcher prospect Janek, I'd do it. (I might trade Duran for just Paredes & King.) The downside is heightened by 2 yrs of Paredes for 3 from Duran, but King has 5 years of control. I don't trade Duran for 2 years of Donovan. I'm not sure what STL could add to Donovan to get me to a yes. 4 yrs of Vientos or 1 year of Hoerner? Not for any of our OF'ers, except maybe Campbell. 1 yr of Gleyber Torres (NOPE) or pre-arb Matt Shaw? (not on for one) MN wont give us Keaschaal for Duran, but maybe a 3rd team can get us to yes. 3 years of Royce Lewis? (Maybe if they also give us 1 year of Jeffries, who is not good at C defense.)

Then, he's shocked, but rinse and repeat.

The top 50 MLB FAs list by MLBTR has dwindled down to just a few top 20 players and very few players of interest to the Sox. (I took out QO players who took the offer) Available: Tier 1 6. Framber (est $150M/6) NOPE for Sox! 8. Bellinger ($140M/5) NOPE 15. Gaallen ($80M/4) NOPE ____________________ Tier 2 17. E Suarez ($63M/3) Fits our power need and plays 3B, but poorly. ___________________ Tier 3 20. Bassitt ($38M/2) Was affordable, but we now have a logjam at SP 23. Giolito ($32M/2) same as Bassitt 27, H Bader ($26M/2) NOPE 28. N Martinez ($25M/2) Could use a pen arm like his. 29. Arraez ($24M/2) Not good enough at 2B 30. Littell ($24M/2) Okay as a pen arm. 32. Verlander $22M/1 NOPE 37. S Dominguez ($18M/2) Maybe??? 41. Scherzer $15M/1 NOPE Gone: Tier 1 1. Tucker $240/4 (est $400/11) Never on Sox radar 2. Bichette $126M/3 (est $208M/8) NOPE (too much $$$) 3. Cease $210M/7 (est $189M/7) NOPE 4. Murakami $34M/2 ($180M/8) NOPE 5. Bregman $175M/5 ($160M/6) $45M more than Ranger 7. Imai $54M/3 ($150M/6) Less AAV than Ranger, but better? (No) 9. Schwarber $150M/5 ($135M/5) $20M more than Ranger 10. Ranger $130M/5 ($115M/5) 11. Alonso $155M/5 ($110M/4) $25M more than Ranger ________________________ Tier 2 12. Naylor $93M/5 ($90M/5) 13. E Diaz $69M/3 ($82M/4) 14. M King $75M/3 ($80M/4) 15. D Williams $51M/3 ($68M/4) 16. Okamoto $60M/4 ($64M/5) Only one from tier 2 I'd consider. _______________________ Tier 3 18. R Suarez $45M/3 ($48M/3) NOPE 19. Polanco $40M/2 ($42M/3) Was affordable for BOS 21. M Kelly $40M/2 ($36M/2) Was affordable, but we filled SP need. 24. H-S Kim $20M/1 ($30M/2) Was affordable and can play 2B. 25. Realmuto $45M/3 ($30M/2) Not really a fit for BOS at $15M AAV ______________________ Tier 4 22. Brad Keller $22M/2 ($36M/3) 26. O'Hearn $29M/3 ($26M/2) 28. R Iglesias $16M/1 ($26M/2) 31. Helsley $28M/2 ($24M/2) 33. Ponce $30M/3 ($22M/2) 34. Finnegan $19M/2 ($20M/2)/ 35. Weaver $22M/2 ($18M/2)/36. T Rogers $37M/3 ($18M/2)/37. Fairbanks $13M/1 ($18M/2)/ 38. G Soto $8M/1 ($16M/2), 39. Pagan $20M/2 ($16M/2), 40. Mahle $10M/1 ($15M/1) 42. Caratini ($14M/2)/ 43. W Castro ($14M/2) Yaz $23M/2, Houser $22M/2, Matz $15M/2, DJansen $14M/2, K Jansen & Maton, $13M/1 D May, $11M/1, Kay $12M/2, $10M/1 Eflin & A Garcia, $8M/1 Lorenzen, $7M/1 J Bell & Mullins

BTV Accepts: Mayer, Tolle, Wong & DHam for Keaschall, Royce Lewis & Jeffries Would yo do this? We lose Tolle, which is huge, and perhaps Mayer busts out, soon, but we gain a great 2Bman, an injury-prone 3Bman with 30 HR power and one year of a catcher with a .777 OPS over the last 3 years and 22 HRs per 650, too! MN gets 3 years of Wong for 1 year of Jeffries and a damn good young pitcher, but if they don't like Mayer like BTV does, they would surely say no.

Certainly BTV has some questionable numbers. Maybe they have data that shows former #1s gain more than guys like K. I'd trade Mayer for Keaschall, but we'd still need a 3Bman. BTV has this: K 84 value- 42 pay= 41 value M 82 value-27 pay=55 value So, they do say K is better than M, but feel K will be paid more, perhaps due to reaching arb earlier than M.

He'll be 33, but point well taken.

I don't think it's that simple. I think the equation looks like this, assuming Duran becomes the DH, because we don't trade any OF'ers and all stay healthy all season: DH: .790 Duran with some power and a lot of speed vs .770 Masa with little power and slow as hell. That is a gain, for sure. Now, weigh this with... 3B: .825 Paredes with power vs 2B .725 DHam vs R and Romy v L (I think we can get a RP added with that Duran trade, too.) Which one looks better? Duran + DHam/Romy or Paredes + Masa (and Romy could platoon w Masa)

Didn't you say, just recently, we are not signing any FAs to a big contract? Okay, you were shocked, but would signing E Suarez and then dumping a salary like Bello of Sandoval really be all that shocking? I'm not saying the odds favor this, but how many times must we be shocked before thinking it's at least possible? We were shocked when we signed Bregman, last winter. Some were shocked we extended Devers, Crochet, Anthony, Campbell, Bello and Rafaela. Some were shocked we spent over $40M AAV on FA pitchers, last winter (21 Buehler, 10 Chapman, 9 Sandoval and 2 Wilson) IMO, I'd be fine with a trade for a big bat infielder like Paredes. I would not be shocked, in the least. All I hear down here in HOU is that cannot trade Walker, Altuve, Pena or Correa, so Paredes will be traded. I'll be shocked if he's not traded somewhere. The Astros need an OF'er badly and every team needs pitching. We have logjams in both areas, so the odds seem to favor we can match up.

I'm not sure the reason why the union doesn't push for more balance. I think they believe when a player gets $400M, the rest of the players will naturally get more. I think I read somewhere that the avg MLB salary is about $5M, but the median is like $1.4M. That means over half the players in the union make less than $1.5M. If they were a forceful voting block, which they could be if they flexed a unified position, some sort of changes could be made to bring the median closer to the mean. I've thrown a few quick ideas out there without much prior thought, but doubling the min wage would be a big plus. Min wage is NOT just for rookies: it's for all pre-arb players to benefit. I'm not sure how many that is, but it is a pretty big percentage. Many Arb 1 and 2 players make near or less than that $1.4M, so add them to the percentage and maybe they could force the change. Owners could probably absorb paying the lower half of players a lot more, but they won't do it without getting something back, of course. Let's just say the bottom 13 paid players on each team get this raise, that's about 360 players (13 x 30 teams=360.) If they all get a $500K raise that goes up to $1M by the end of the new CBA, we're talking $180M year one to $360M year ??? Hell, maybe the top 10-15 players make more than that by themselves! The theory makes too much sense to just discard out of hand, but making it happen would be more complicated, and it would have to involve limiting the top pay, somehow, or the players giving something else back.

TOR offered Tucker $350M/10. He'll have to get $110M/6 when this deal is done. I guess that's possible, but very risky.