While fWAR projections are notoriously low, even for players moving towards peak prime, there is some reason for optimism with the Sox over their winter changes, and I'll include losing Devers, too.
There is no sugar-coating the loss of Devers and Bregman, and to a lesser extent Gio, Refsnyder, Wilson, Matz, Dobbins and a few others. Here is a breakdown of changes made, so far:
2025 FWAR used and projected fWAR
Lost> Gained
3.5 Bregman> added nothing from outside the system
3.3 Devers (2 team total)> added nothing
1.0 Refsnyder> added nothing
0.3 N Lowe (BOS -0.7 fWAR at 1B)> 2.8 Contreras (projected 1.9)
_________________________
2.0 Giolito> 4.0 Suarez (3.3 projected)
1,0 Dobbins > 3.6 Sonny Gray (3.9 projected)
-1.4 (-0.7 Buehler, -0.3 Houck, -0.3 Fitts, -0.1 DMay)> Oviedo (1.2 projected)
1.7 (1.0 Wilson, 0.6 Bernardino, 0.2 Wink, -0.1 Alcala)> Nothing added to the pen, so far. (Probably see Harrison, Crawford and other SP'ers moved to the pen.)
This is an oversimplified way of looking at it, but it does highlight where we have improved and where we need improvement.
Everyday players: Contreras might give us a +2 or 3 fWAR over 2025's 1B, but losing Devers, Bregman and Refsnyder has to be viewed as losing 4-6 fWAR. Maybe the overall loss at everyday positions is like 4 fWARish.
Pitchers: It looks like +1.5 to 2 for Suarez over Gio, +2.5 to 3 for Gray over Dobbins and +1 to 1.5 for Oviedo over a mix. (I'm not even counting pluses from Sandoval, Crawford and Harrison here, but see the pen.) The rotation looks about +5 or 6 and should balance the loss on offense and then some.
The pen lost 1.7, but maybe SP'ers in the pen can make that up.
Overall, I see a +1-2 fWAR over 2025, with no more moves made. The gain is not what I hoped for, and probably most of us feel the same way or worse about the winter's overall moves.
Hopefully we add a 2+ fWAR guy at 3B or 2B, and the gain looks much better.