moonslav59

Unsweetened Devin.

I'll join the 67 Club in a few months, and I feel like I aged 5 years in the past year. Does that count as 70?

Pythagorean 2025 wins: 97 NYY 92 BOS (You admit they got slightly better.) 88 TOR 70 BAL (88 SEA & DET, 83 HOU, 82 CLE) What's your take on what other teams projections are and why so many improve by enough to overtake or stay ahead of the Sox. We know what you think of the Red Flops, but why are other teams better? (Be specific.)

I usually wait until a day or two before opening day to project the Sox players' season numbers, but here it goes: PAs Player OPS (Assuming good health to all) 700 Anthony .875 (25 HRs) 675 Duran .790 (15 HRs & 25 SB) 650 Contreras .800 (25 HRs) 650 Story .730 (20 HRs & 20 SBs) 650 Abreu .800 (30 Hrs) 625 Durbin .750 (15 HRs & 25 SBs) 625 Rafaela .720 (15 Hrs & 20 SBs) 500 Mayer .740 (15 HRs) 450 Narvaez .725 (15 HRs) 400 IKF .675 (Great D) 350 Romy .800 (Platoon) 250 Yoshida .780 (Hard to predict PA total) 200 Wong .675 (Uptick projected here) 200 Monasterio .690 100 Sogard .690 __________________ IP Pitcher ERA 200 Crochet 2.75 (Top 3 Cy Young vote) 180 Gray 4.00 (IP is questionable) 170 Suarez 3.30 (Has never had 160 IP) 160 Bello 4.00 (Hardest to project) 120 Oviedo 4.20 (Stab in the dark) 100 Sandoval 4.20 100 Crawford 4.20 ??? Early & Tolle ??? 70 Whitlock 2.50 65 Chapman 2.00 65 Slaten 2.75 65 Weissert 3.00 55 Watson 3.75 50 Moran 3.90 40 Kelly 4.20 I might do an updated version near opening day.

And somehow, that's 4th place.

You missed.... eerrrr wait.....we all missed any comment on Rafaela's big hit, today.

Good to see Bello looking sharp. 🤪

70 wins would take near season-long injuries to 5 or 6 of our best 8-9 players.

I may adjust by the stat of the season, but as of now, I see this... 91 NYY 90 BOS 87 TOR 86 BAL 92 SEA, 87 DET, 85 CLE, 84 HOU, 81 TEX

I noticed fangraphs projects a 2.1 fWAR for Durbin. They project Contreras as 2.2. Here are some selected projections: 2B/3B: 4.5 KMarte, 3.9 Bichette, 3.8 Bregman. 3.7 Neto, 3.4 Hoerner, 3.1 Donovan 3.0 Semien, 2.9 CJ Abrams, 2.8 G Torres & Devers, 2.7 E Tovar, 2.6 Keaschall 2.5 Meidroth, 2.4 Paredes. 2.3 B Stott, 2.2 Okamoto, R lewis 2.2 2.1 Durbin, A Bohm, 2.0 Murakami. 1.8 Polanco, 0.6 M Shaw Basically, Durbin fell about 1.6 short of Bregman, 1.3 short of Neto and 1.0 from Donovan. He's almost even to Paredes, Okamoto & Bohm. He looks better than Polanco, Shaw & E Suarez. 1B/DH: 2.7 Schwarber & Alonso, 2.5 Yandy Diaz. L Arraez 2.3 2.2 Contreras 2.1 Rooker, 1.3 E Suarez It looks like Contreras is not too far (0.6) from Alonso & Schwarber, but his defense probably helped him close the gap. He does look like a better choice than E Suarez.

If we hit a reasonable 90 wins, then "at best 4th place" is nearly impossible.

I noticed fangraphs projects a 2.1 fWAR for Durbin. They project Contreras as 2.2. Here are some selected projections: 2B/3B: 4.5 KMarte, 3.9 Bichette, 3.8 Bregman. 3.7 Neto, 3.4 Hoerner, 3.1 Donovan 3.0 Semien, 2.9 CJ Abrams, 2.8 G Torres & Devers, 2.7 E Tovar, 2.6 Keaschall 2.5 Meidroth, 2.4 Paredes. 2.3 B Stott, 2.2 Okamoto, R lewis 2.2 2.1 Durbin, A Bohm, 2.0 Murakami. 1.8 Polanco, 0.6 M Shaw 1B/DH: 2.7 Schwarber & Alonso, 2.5 Yandy Diaz. L Arraez 2.3 2.2 Contreras 2.1 Rooker, 1.3 E Suarez

I think Cora's line-up choices give us a look at his intentions. I think we see this as the general template, but maybe some tweaks are made for L-R starters. 1. L Anthony 2. R Story 3. L Duran 4. R Contreras 5. L Abreu 6. R Durbin After this it gets murky, but he seemed to like Narvaez, last year. I'll go with... 7. R Narvaez 8. L Mayer (R Romy) 9. R Rafaela

No. I took projected total value /divided by year. I left out the salary.

100 wins is not out of the question has no relation to our final at best position in the standings? Are you saying if we win 100, the Jays, Yanks and O's all win 101 or more?

Here is how each roster slot looks between the Sox, Yanks and Jays: Sox-Jays-Yanks SP1: Crochet 5.8/ Cease 3.9/ Fried 3.9 SP2: Gray 3.7/ Gausman 3.0/ Rodon 2.3 SP3: Suarez 3.4/ Ponce 2.2/ Cole 2.1 SP4: Bello 1.9/ Yesavage 2.1/ Schlitter 1.7 SP5: Oviedo 1.1/ Bieber 2.0/ Warren 1.4 SP 6-7-8-9: Sox 2.3/ Jays 2.0/ Yanks 2.2 RP1: Chapman 1.7/ Hoffman 1.0/ Bednar 1.3 RP2: Whitlock 1.3/ Garcia 0.5/ Doval 0.9 RP3-4-5: Sox 1.0/ Jays 0.8/ Yanks 1.4 C: Narvaez 1.9/ Kirk 4.9/ Wells 3.2 1B: Contreras 2.2/ Valddy 4.8/ Rice 2.6 2B: Mayer 1.0/ Clement 2.6/ Chisholm 3.1 3B: Durbin 2.5/ Gimenez 2.8 /McMahon 1.7 SS: Story 2.3/ Okamoto 2.5/Volpe 2.0 Utility: Romy 0.9/ Schneider 1.4/ Caballero 0.9 LF: Anthony 3.5/ Sanchez 1.3/ Bellinger 3.3 CF: Rafaela 3.2/ Varsho 2.7/ Grisham 2.8 RF: Abreu 2.4/Barger 1.9/ Judge 7.3 DH: Duran 2.4/ Springer 2.4/Stanton 0.8 Utility 2-3-4: Sox 0.9/ Jays 2.2/Yanks 1.8 Rotation: Sox have 3 first, 1 second and 1 third & the best depth. Pen: Sox have the best 1-2 punch and second best depth. Infield: 2 second and 3 thirds (worst) Outfield + DH: 3 first and 1 second (best)

Today, Anthony DHs... 1 Anthony DH 2 Story SS 3 Duran LF 4 Contreras 1B 5 Abreu RF 6 Durbin 3B 7 Rafaela CF 8 Narvaez C 9 IKF 2B

This goes wildly against your "at best" statement we contested a week ago.

Didn't you say 88 wins, at one point? 91 is out of the question?

Ooops. I missed them. 88 wins last year.

According to BTV, these are the most valuable Sox, Jay, Yanks players by Value/year (no money counted) Value per year (only 8+ players listed) 40 Crochet/ 33 Cease/63 Judge 33 Gray/ 30 Gausman/36 Chisholm 31 Suarez/ 26 Vladdy/ 30 Cole 26 Duran/ 25 Kirk/28 Fried 25 Anthony/ 24 Varsho/22 Grisham 19 Bello/ 22 Springer/21 Bellinger 17 Abreu/ 16 Bieber/21 Wells 17 Sandoval/ 14 Gimenez/19 Rodon 15 Early/ 12 Barger/ 17 Rice 15 Contreras/ 11 Clement/15 Bednar 14 Mayer/9 Berrios/11 Warren 13 Rafaela/ 8 Yesavage/11 Schlittler 12 Chapman/8 Hoffman/11 McMahon 12 Durbin/ none/11 Volpe 12 Story/none/ 9 Dominguez 11 Campbell, Kutter/ none/ 8 Weathers 9 Tolle, Narvaez/none/none While the Yanks have better top quality players, the Sox have 19 players valued at $9M or more. I do think the Sandoval score is way too high, but maybe some Yankee and Blue Jay scores are too high, too. The Yanks have 16 players at 9 or more. The Jays have 13. Once you get past the top 9 players on each team, the Sox win every match-up. In the top 9, the Yanks win 6, including the one with Chisholm apparently overrated, the Sox win 2 and TOR 1 . According to BTV, we have the Jays clearly beat in projected value per year.

Does this mean you will stop suggesting trades?

I think Duran is one of our best players, but I've suggested more trades of him than anyone. My suggested trades of Duran are mostly based on my belief that Yoshida might have a similar OPS as him at DH this year, and the drop off at DH would be less than the gain where we add someone. I am higher on Casas than most and see him as a DH. I think Casas is a better hitter than Masa. The main reason I've wanted to trade Masa is not a dislike of his hitting, but more about the DH logjam and his pay level killing our budget. Wanting to trade someone is not disliking them.

Duran is no sure bet to catch anything.

Some AL team might put it all together and win 95+ game, but none did it 2025. The two 94 wins teams arguably did nothing to improve over the winter. I think what the naysayers are missing is looking as hard at the other top AL contenders as they are at the Sox roster and winter changes. 94 wins TOR- I think they stayed the same over the winter- at best. 94 wins NYY- same as TOR. 90 SEA- did they get better? 89 BOS- most think we got marginally better. 87 DET- they look like they got better. 87 HOU- did nothing to get better. 82 KCR & 81 TEX- same The team that improved the most was BAL who had 75 wins. Only 3 NL teams were worse, last year.