We haven't won in so long, nobody looks like a winner. The 2013 team didn't either, before they did.
I'm not the eternal optimist. I was one of the first to give up in '22. I did not think we were good enough to win in 2013.
I don't think we will win in 2024, even if we get 2 aces and bring back Duvall, but I do think we will be close enough to make the playoffs.
Every team has weaknesses, and almost every player has one part of his game weak. I would not call Casas at 1B "unstable," because he has a long way to go to be an average or plus fielder. Same with Devers at 3B. I'm fine with Dugo in RF. Our pen can be one of the best in MLB, if we stop raiding it for starters.
I'm not a believer in the playoffs being a crapshoot, although this season is sure looking like one.
I guess I'm in the minority, as I was 5 years ago, when a small few of us saw a downturn coming, based on an unsustainable budget, too many starts reaching arbs and free agency at once, and a farm that looked a lot worse than it turned out to be, after so many trades for studs. I expected some very tough years. I did not expect 2019 to be so bad. I did not think it would take us 4 years to build a decent foundation, like I think we have now. Not a ring foundation, but a decent one. One better than it looked like in 2020. Much better.
You and others may disagree with some of these specifics or the overall view I hold, but here is my take- position by position:
Catcher: I think we are near average now, overall. I think Wong will improve on D and McGuire is what he is. I'm not sure about his offense, but he showed some hope, here and there. I think our catchers will improve. (Our long term future looks much brighter with Teel in the fold. Hickey & Brannon have some hopes, too.)
1B: Casas looks like a great hitter with an excellent approach. I think his OBP will go way up in '24, and maybe his power numbers, too. His D has a long way to go, but he's still an overall big plus at first. (We may not need guys like Jordan to ever make the bigs.)
2B: I'm probably being overly optimistic, here, but between Urias, Reyes and EValdez, I think we can be close to average at 2B. Urias had very nice numbers as recently as 2021 to 2022. EValdez may be a nice hitter, someday.
3B: Devers Forevers. All set. (Meidroth may not ever be needed.)
SS: Story is a big "what if," but at least we know he can play plus-plus D. Reyes as the back-up looks better than DHam and Kike. (Mayer, Romero, Zanetello & Cespedes might be one of the best 4 farm levels of SSs in MLB.)
LF: I actually don't think I'm being optimistic to think a Duran-Refsnyder platoon can hit over .800 in 2024. While their D is not plus, they should be an improvement over Yoshida on D. (Abreu as a back up looks fine, Rosier is starting to be noticed.)
CF: This is a huge question mark. Rafaela could be great, especially on D, or a dud. Abreu is also questionable. Duran should not play CF. (Anthony & Bleis are far away.)
RF: Dugo is steady on O and D, but not great. He's got one year left. (Castro is far away. Abrey, Anthony or B leis could end up in RF, if CF is covered b y another.)
DH: Yoshida is fine as the DH, despite being overpaid, up to now.
SP: Clearly, this position is sorely lacking in solid pitchers. I like Bello as a #3. Pivetta is probably as the #5, if 1, 2 and 4 are filled with durable and capable SPers. Do that and the pen is more than fine for 2024. After Jansen & Martin bolt, it may need a big boost.
In short, Solid at 1B, 3B & the pen.
Between average and solid at C, SS, LF, RF & DH.
Around average or below, but not horrible: 2B
Horrible: Rotation (or specifically 3 SP'ers.)