moonslav59

Are you trolling, again?

All but the part about amounts of wins in certain years are opinions, and not a very good ones either. Yet, he almost always ends with ... Those are the facts and the facts are undisputed.

Agreed. Not now, anyway. Yorke plus Rafaela or Duran might.

Forcing Yoshida to play LF is not ideal, but for many years, the Sox have won with a poor defensive LF'er. Anyway, this is likely 1 to 2.5 years away from possibly happening. I don't get concerned about possibly having a surplus of good players at one position. We can just trade somebody, if it comes to that.

This certainly bolsters the position that it is or in large part is a crapshoot, especially since the playoffs were expanded to 12 teams. Still, there is evidence the better teams have a better chance, so it's not toally random, as a crapshoot implies. Since 10-12 teams made the playoffs, each year.... 2022: Astros 106 wins (1st in wins) 2021: Braves 88 wins (12th in wins) 2020: Dodgers (Most wins) 2019: Nationals 93 wins (8th in wins out of 10 teams) 2018: Red Sox 108 wins (1st out of 10) 2017: Astros 101 wins (3rd out of 10) 2016: Cubs 103 wins (1st out of 10) 2015: Royals 95 wins (3rd out of 10) 2014: Giants 88 wins (T8th-10th out of 10) 2013: Red Sox 97 wins (T 1st out of 10) 2012: Giants 90 wins (10th out of 10) It seems like only the top 3 or bottom 3 teams almost always win it all.

I've never discounted the value of defense. I'd love Chapman of our team, despite knowing it will never happen. His addition would improve our D at 3B and maybe hurt it in LF and CF. It would be a net gain on D. I'm not disputing this. It also makes all pitchers look better. I get that. To me, the upgrade over what we have: DH Yoshida 1B Casas 3B Devers LF Duran/Ref CF Raf/Abreu to DH Casas/Devers 1B Casas/Devers 3B Chapman LF Yoshida CF Duran/Raf is significant and worthy. I do not think it outweighs this: SP Gray, Snell, Montgomery over Crawford or Houck plus Crawford or Houck in the pen over Murphy, Kelly or Bernardino. It's basically, Gray replacing Murphy. I see that as a bigger net gain.

I'll say "I know it when I see it." I just laid out some of the Sox best teams since 1967. Almost all of them involved having solid SP'ers. Many had 2-3 solid SP'ers and fewer starts outside the top 4-5 in the rotation, mainly due to good health, having 4-5 decent SP'ers or not having any better depth. Our ring years almost always checked both boxes: 2-3 SP'ers with more than 24 GS and very good ERA+'s Under 30 GS by SP'ers not in the top 5, unless we traded for one like Nate, Pom or Peavy. It's hard to deny good starting pitching has had a major impact on whether the Sox win or not. It's not an exact correlation, but you never find that in MLB.

This was directed at notin vias your response to him.

If we want to go with just anecdotal evidence, let's take the team we know the very most about: the Boston Red Sox. Rotations: focus on 1-2 punches and how many GS outside the top 4-5 SP'ers.) 1967: Lonborg "and 3 days of rain." (He started 39 games in a different era.) Lee Stange 2.77 is awesome, but he pitched in relief for 11 of his 35 games. Gary Bell 3.16 for 24 starts was awesome, too. Darrell Brandon 4.17 (19 GS and 20 RP gms) 56 GS by 8 others (including 11 Bennett & Santiago, 9 Morehead, 8 by Rohr & Waslewski) By the stats, it looks like they had 2-3 solid SP'ers, but in that era, it was really only 1. 1972 (missed the ALCS by 0.5 games in the unbalanced games played strike year) 35 Pattin 3.24 (looks like an ace in today's game, but not then.) 30 Siebert 3.80 (a decent #2) 22 McGlothen 3.41 21 Curtis 3.73 19 Tiant 1.91 (27 GS by others, including 16 by Culp and 7 Krausse) This was a decent rotation, and we don't know how they might have done had they made the 4 team playoffs.) (The '73 team won more games than '72 but finished 6 games out: Tiant 35/3.34, Lee 33/2.75, Curtis 30/3.58, Pattin 30/4.32, 15 Moret 15/3.17 and only 19 GS by others.) Here is where I feel "the era" changed... 1975 Does not checked either box, but Tiant, Wise and Lee were a better 1-2-3 than surrounding years. 35 Tiant 4.02 (Hero in the playoffs) 35 Wise 3.95 34 Lee 3.95 20 Cleveland 4.43 16 Moret 3.60 20 by others: 11 Pole 4.42 I'd argue this was a deeper rotation than previous seasons, but it still lacked a serious 1-2 punch. 1977 team won more games than 1975, but finished 2.5 out. 4 of the top 4 SP'ers by GS had ERAs over 4.26. (Tiant was at 4.53 and Jenkins was #2 at 3.68) 1978 won 99 games and missed playoffs due to 163 game loss to NYY 36 Torres 3.96 35 Eck 2.99 31 Tiant 3.31 24 Lee 3.46 16 Wright 3.57 (11 Ripley 5.55 & 10 by others.) This team seemed to have the formula to win. A nice 1-2-3 punch with Lee as the #4. 1986 lost WS in 7 games to NYM 33 Clemens 2.48 (perhaps the best SP the Sox have ever had, along with Pedro.) 30 Boyd 3.78 (nice numbers, but I'm not sure we can say he was a solid #2 punch.) 26 Nipper 5.38 (Yikes!) 25 Hurst 2.99 (could be viewed as a solid #2) 16 Seaver 3.80 31 by others (10 Sellers 4.94/ 6 by Brown 5.34) 1995 finished first in 3 division AL 29 Erik Hanson 4.24 27 Wake 2.95 23 Clemens 4.18 21 Z Smith 5.61 14 Eshelman 4.85 32 by others (12 Cormier 4.07) 1998 a 92 win team that made the playoffs as a WC team thanks to Pedro 33 Pedro 2.89 33 Wake 4.58 31 Saberhagen 3.96 (a decent #2, that year) 23 Avery 5.02 10 Lowe 4.03 32 by others (8 by Wasdin 5.25, Schourek 4.30 and Rose 6.93) 1999 a 94 win team that lost in the ALCS 29 Pedro 2.07 (WOW!) 27 Portugal 5.51 26 Rapp 4.12 22 Saberhagen 2.95 18 Rose 4.87 40 by others (17 Wake 5.08) (2002 won 93 games and missed the playoffs: (32 Lowe 2.58, 30 Pedro 2.26 was a great 1-2 punch! Then, 29 Burkett 4.53, 23 Castillo 5.07, 15 Wake 2.81 w 30 gms as RP) 33 GS by others (12 Fossum 3.46) 2003 We all know the story of 2003 33 Wake 4.09 33 Lowe 4.47 30 Burkett 5.15 29 Pedro 2.22 That's a lot of starts from the top 4, but no solid 1-2 punch) 14 Fossum 5.47 23 by others is low. (10 Suppan 5.57) 2004 First Ring in over 8 decades! Checked both boxes: Great 1-2 punch and minimal starts outside the top 4-5 in the rotation: 33 Pedro 3.90 124 ERA+ in this hitter's era 33 Lowe 5.42 32 Schill 3.26 148 ERA+ 30 Wake 4.87 29 Arroyo 4.03 (120 ERA+) Only 5 GS outside the top 5! Lowe and Wake did not have great seasons. 2005 won 95 games but lost in ALDS (No Pedro & Lowe) 33 Wake 4.15 32 Arroyo 4.51 32 Clement 4.57 30 Wells 4.45 16 W Miller 4.95 19 by others (11 by Schill 5.69) It's amazing we won so many games with this rotation, but we did not get far in the playoffs. 2007 World Champs, again! (Beckett & Schilling as the solid 1-2 punch, but not much support beyond them.) 32 Dice-K 4.40 31 Wake 4.76 (almost 400 IP from our 3-4 SP'ers) 30 Beckett 3.27 24 Schilling 3.87 23 Tavarez 5.15 22 GS from others (11 by Lester at 4.57 and 7 by Gabbard at 3.73) (2008 won 95 games and lost in the ALCS: 33 Lester 3.21, 30 Wake 4.13, 29 Dice-K 2.90- maybe a good #2, that year, 27 Beckett 4.03, 15 Buch 6.75) 29 by others. Once could argue this rotation had a pretty solid 1-2-3 and they should have gone farther.) (2009 also won 95 games but lost in the ALDS: 32 Beckett 3.86, 32 Lester 3.41, 24 Penny 5.61, 21 Wake 4.58, 16 Buch 4.21 but 37 by others w 12 by Dice-K 5.76 and 8 by Smoltz at 8.33.) We had a decent 1-2 punch but not much more.) 2013 was the 3rd ring! 97 win team: Had a 1-2 punch but 28 GS outside the top 5. 33 Lester 3.75 29 Lackey 3.52 29 Dempster 4.57 27 Doubront 4.32 16 Buch 1.74 (WOW!) Added Peavy 10 GS with a 4.04 ERA (2016 won 93 games and lost in ALDS: 35 Price 3.99, 33 Porcello 3.15 was a solid 1-2, but then... 24 Wright 3.33, 21 Buch 4.78, 20 ERod 4.71 and 29 by others w 13 by Pom at 4.59.) (2017 also won 93 games, but Price was hurt: 33 Porcello 4.65, 32 Sale 2.90, 32 Pom 3.32, 24 ERod 4.19, 15 Fister 4.88 and 26 by others w Price at 11/3.38) 2018 was the 4th ring year! It had a very decent 1-2-3 and even 1-2-3-4 punch- 5 with Nate added. 33 Porcello 4.28 30 Price 3.58 27 Sale 2.11 (WOW!) 23 ERod 3.82 11 Nate 3.33 38 by others does not "check the second box, but the trade for Nate explains some of this. 13 GS by Johnson 4.17, 11 by Pom 6.08, 8 Velezquez 3.28) (2021 won 92 games and went farther than many imagined: 32 Nate 3.75, 31 ERod 4.74, 31 Pivetta 4.53, 22 Richards 4.87 some as RP, 22 Perez 4.74 some as RP, 25 by others w 13 by Houck at 3.52. Erod did not really provide the 2nd "punch.") It's my contention that having a solid 1-2 (or 1-2-3) punch with fewer GS outside the top 4-5 best SP'ers does not guarantee a ring, but with very few exceptions, every ring year we had checked both boxes. Many seasons we came close also checked both boxes or checked one box with emphasis. There are other ways to win rings. The Sox have not been very good at winning rings without 2-3 solid SP'ers in the rotation. This does not mean we cannot win, unless we have 2-3, but to me, pitching has always been the best key to winning. Not the only one, but the best.

I get the argument that teams have won without great or even good SP'ing. The Royals were another example. It happens rarely. That is not evidence to support the fact that adding 2 SP'ers instead of 1 SP'er and a decent RHB who plays plus 3B D is the better idea. I can find many examples of teams winning despite a poor fielding 3Bman. How about starting with 2018?

If we spend almost the same for Chapman as Gray or Montgomery, why would it have to be so unlikely?

It's just about who might have the higher WAR: it's about who they replace and that differential. Adding Chapman unleashes a complicated formula on what is gained over the status quo. We may gain on D at 3B, but lose on D in LF (Yoshida DH>LF) and CF (Duran LF>CF,) and probably PAs would be taken away from Rafaela, Abreu and Refsnyder- maybe Urias, too. What is the net gain in WAR? Adding a solid 150+ IP not only would be a major gain in the rotation WAR, but would also boost the pen WAR as someone like Houck or Crawford would move to the pen and replace Murphy, Kelly and a slew of lesser arms. I see the net plus on WAR by adding a solid pitcher as significantly more than Chapman adds. By how much? Who knows. The simple theory is this: Team A has a 1.0WAR 3Bman a 0.5 WAR SP. Does signing a 5 WAR 3B add more to the team than a 4WAR SP'er? (Then, what if the 0.5 WAR SP replaces a -0.2 RP in the pen, while the 1.0 WAR 3Bman helps the bench, but not at a 1.0 clip, due to way less playing time.

Maybe? 1B/DH Devers/Casas 2B Yorke SS Mayer 3B Story

His repeated mention of Yorke and not Anthony and others exposes his ignorance.

I have to ask: what's up with Tommy Pham? Does he need to be drug tested?

You can sign any two of these guys, which two do you choose? Hypothetical: same cost at a 4 year deal for all. Chapman Gray Snell Yamamoto Montgomery To me, any combination without Chapman is better than any with Chapman.

Like on the Exorcist? Apparently, OAA has replaced fWAR as the most important stat of the day. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see us improve our corner IF defense, and moving Devers to 1B has almost always appealed to me. If Chapman costs as much as Duvall, I'd be driving notin's bandwagon, but we need funds for pitching- the more the better. (The more, the more likely we do better, is more like it.) I'd almost rather have us add no RHB and spend it all on pitching, and even trade a top prospect for another pitcher than to spend over 30% of our winter budget on 3B/RHB. I'd rather spend it all on pitching and play Urias at 3B 75% of the time than sign Chapman while skimping on pitching. I think we can cobble together a good enough OF with Yoshida at DH: LF: Duran-Refsnyder platoon (Abreu/Yoshida as depth) Should end up near or over .800 CF: Rafaela (Abreu/Duran as depth) The big gamble. RF: Dugo or Duvall, if we trade Dugo (Abreu as depth) Most easily predictable results, here.

Kansas upset #6 Oklahoma. #13 Utah is beating #8 Oregon, so maybe ND jumps up 2 slots, this week. (OKL may still rank higher.)

Seager and Garcia are dialed in!

If we went with Yoshida in LF, Rafaela/Duran in CF, and Dugo/Abreu in RF, it is no added cost. If we add Duvall and trade Dugo it may cost next to nothing. If we add Duvall and trade Duran, it would still cost way less than Chapman. I agree, improving 3B and 1B D id better than improving LF D, and Chapman fills the RHB role, well. I just don't think we should spend that big of a percent of our winter budget on 3B/RHB. I'd rather send Yoshida to DH, sign Duvall and use the difference in spending on a better pitcher (s.)

Certainly 3B defense is more important than LF. Your idea does have merit, but moving Yoshida to DH costs nothing, and we have 3 LFs to take his place

Chapman would fill that need. It would also force Yoshida to LF and lessen the need to bolster the OF.

I get that. What’s worse is that I thought they tried harder in 2022 and 2023 and got worse results

It's that time of year! What else is there to talk about?

Is 3B and 1B a higher overall need area than any other Sox positions? I know the two corner IF'ers we have were worst or near worst in '23 on D. D is not everything. Besides, we could also play Urias at 3B and rotate Devers/Casas at 1B/DH, if you see corner IF defense as more important that fixing the rotation and lack of a big RH's bat.