moonslav59

Using MLBTR's projected salaries, who would you sign, if we have $70M to spend. (Add $9M if you trade Dugo or $5M for Urias for no salary in return.) 29M x 7 Snell (QO penalty) 25M x 9 Yamamoto (posting fee) 25M x 6 Montgomery 25M x 6 Nola (QO penalty) 25M x 6 Chapman (QO) 23M x 4 Gray (QO) 22M x 12 Bellinger (QO) 22M x 2 Giolito 22M x 2 Stroman 21M x 4 ERod 20M x 4 Teoscar H 20M x 2 JD 18M x 6 J Hader (QO) 18M x 4 Candelario 18M x 2 Maeda 17M x 5 Imanaga 16M x 1 J Turner 15M x 1 Montas & B Belt 15M x 3 Soler 14M x 1 Severino 14M x 3 Lugo 13M x 2 Clevinger, Kiermaier & Nick Martinez 13M x 3 Flaherty & Garver 12M x 1 T Anderson 12 x 2 A Chapman 12M x 3 Wacha 11M x 2 Lorenzen 10M x 2 H Bader 10M x 2 T Mahle 10M x 5 J-H Lee 10M x 4 J Hicks 9M x 2 A Rosario & Merrifield 6M x 2 L Hendriks Duvall not in top 50. I might like... $25M x 9 Yamamoto $25M x 6 Montgomery (no QO penalty) $13M x 3 Garver $12M x 3 Wacha That's $75M. I'd trade Dugo, McGuire and see if we can squeeze Duvall under the $70M line. (Keep Urias.) SP: Yamamoto, Montgomery, Bello, Wacha, Sale/Pivetta LR: Houck, Crawford, Whitlock, Pivetta/Murphy SR: Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Schreiber/Bernardino C: Garver, Wong 1B: Casas (Duvall/Devers) 2B: Urias, Reyes SS: Story (Reyes) 3B: Devers (Urias) LF: Duran/Refsnyder platoon (Abreu) CF: Rafaela, Abreu RF: Duvall (Abreu) DH: Yoshida (Casas/Devers)

Casas is a ROY finalist.

If the Sox want to sign a top pitcher and not have the QO penalty, it might have to be: Yamamoto (hefty posting fee) Montgomery ERod Who is next?

7 players get a QO ($20.325M): Ohtani Bellinger Chapman Gray Hader Nola Snell Baez opts IN Wacha opts OUT ERod and Stroman are FAs. Team accepts option for Morton (ATL), Hendricks (CHC) and Berti (MIA.) Beeks claimed off waivers by COL. Phillies claim Josh Fleming.

Many catchers get about 360-440 PAs, a year, but he's never gotten over 360. He's had very nice numbers at the plate, since 2019: .251/.346/.508/.854 Per 650 PAs .251 38 95 That would be a nice addition to the right side line-ups. We could trade or non tender McGuire. Getting him and Duvall might be enough for the offense.

I'm not sure how BTV determines who is "minors" vs "majors," but here are the top valued "minors" on some top AL teams: Red Sox: 60 Mayer 42 Anthony 29 Bleis 18 Teel & 17 Yorke Mariners: 19 Ford 19 Young 13 Gonzalez 11 Locklear 9 Clase, Emerson O's 69 Holliday 44 Mayo 18 Basallo 9 Fabian & Bradfield Rays 42 Williams 15 Taylor 8 Vasquez, Isaac & Ledbetter NYY 16 Jones 14 Hampton 12 Arias 11 Thorpe 7 Lombard HOU 8 Baez 7 Melton 7 Dezenzo 4 Mathews 3 Corona TOR 34 Tiedmann 15 Martinez 9 Jimenez 9 Barger 9 Nimmala MIN 48 Lee 46 Jenkins 20 Rodriguez 9 Festa 8 Mercedes CLE 20 Manzardo 16 Espino 15 DeLauter 15 Brito 9 Valera Only 3 of these teams have 2 players over 40 (BOS, BAL & MIN.) Only 1 of these teams have 3 players over 29 (BOS.)

Indeed. Us Sox fans see Teel as being worth way more than 18, but other teams have the same type prospects.

100+ IP as a SPer since 1967: Best ERA- 35 Pedro '00 37 Maddux '94 38 Gibson '68 39 Maddux '95 41 Rogers '73 42 Buchholtz '13 42 Pedro '99 & Kershaw '16 44 Gooden '85, Greinke '15, Clemens '05 45 deGrom '18, Clemens '97, Arroeta '15, Pedro '97, Verlander '22 Other Sox or ex Sox: 20. Clemens '90 21. Sale '18 24. Pedro '03 26. Kluber '17 27. Pedro '02 32. Clemens '06 35. R Hill '16 38. Pedro '01 39. Tiant '69 44. Saberhagen '89 45. Buchholtz '10 49. Anibal Sanchez '06 53. Tudor '85 19 of the top 53 pitched for the Sox at some point in their careers. Pretty Amazing that Buch has 2 slots in the top 45, but he never did it with 180+ IP. (That was always his downfall.)

Oooops. Yes, 2010 not 2013. My bad. Top Sox ERA- with 100+ IP since 2004: 42 Buch '13 47 Sale '18 54 Buch '10 61 Aceves '11 63 Lester '14 63 Sale '17 64 Dice K '08 68 Beckett '11 69 Schilling '04 70 Beckett '07 71 Lester '08 & Porcello '16 73 Pomeranz '17 & Lester '09 75 Lester '10 76 Wright '16 78 Buch '15 79 ERod '19 80 Price '18 81 Wacha '22 Buch has 2 of the top 3 and 3 of the top 17! Lester has 3 in the top 15.

Even if we go over the first tax line, I doubt we go over the second one. IMO, there will be finite winter budget. Spending $14M on Anderson to play 2B (and back up SS) would mean $14M less on pitching, CF/RF or a LH RP. I suppose we trade or non tender Urias, and the net budget addition would be about $9M, but that is about what Duvall might get, or the difference between Clevinger and Gray. Plus, Even if he cost only $10M, I might prefer Urias at $5M. He's 26 and has some nice upside. (Not really upside- just return to 2021 values.)

BTV places these values on our prospects: 60 Mayer 42 Anthony 29 Bleis 18 Teel 17 Yorke 17 Rafaela Recent Grads: 38 Casas 34 Bello 30 Duran 27 Crawford

Barnes is 6th! Price is 10th and Lester 11th.

It was Clay in '13

220+ IP since 1974 with the Sox. Which player is wrong on this list of our top xFIP- pitchers? 1. Sale 65 2. Uehara 68 3. Papelbon 72 4. Whitlock 81 5. Schilling 82 6. Barnes 84 7. Beckett 86 8. Tazawa 87 9. Eovaldi 87 10. Lester 87 (Note: Price was at 87, too.) Houck is at 11 with an 88. Wells is #13 at 89

Hint: it was in 2013.

I would guess Anderson would be a good defensive 2Bman, and he's only 30. He was really good from 2020-2021 (.871 OPS and 131 OPS+.) That blows Urias away. (Urias is 26, however.) However, in 2021: .806/109+ Anderson .789/112+ Urias 2021-2023: .707/94+ Anderson .748/106+ Urias At $14M/1, I'd pass on Anderson.

Yes, that is true. I always try to give lower level prospects, but I almost always give away more value that we get back, thinking maybe that might work. Most likely, it will not. It's hard to know how many GMs might really like someone like Bleis, Rafaela or Yorke- more than what BTV gives them. I do think, to get a major pitcher with 2+ years of control, we'd need to give up Mayer, Anthony or Teel. If you had to part with one of these top 3 prospect, which one would it be?

Indeed. We do have some valuable pieces other teams will give up a lot to get.

That seems about right. We don't really know how they value our players. I think BTV overvalues Yorke, but maybe the CWS like him a lot. Maybe they really like Houck or Crawford, too. When you see what was given for Castillo and Lopez, it is pretty steep.

Value wise, I'd prefer Urias and Reyes at about $6M total than either Anderson or Merrifield. Urias may do better than both, next season. Use the $9-14M to sign Duvall or Wacha.

Agreed. I mentioned that earlier. Why stop what was working?

Here is a tough one: Since 1974, only 30 times has a pitcher had 170+ IP in a season and an ERA- (fangarphs) or 54 or lower. Six of those times have been by Sox pitchers. 1. Pedro at 35 in '00 4. Pedro at 42 in '99 15. Clemens at 47 in '90 17. Pedro at 48 in '03 20. Pedro at 50 in '02 30. _____ at 54 for the Sox in ___? (Hint: it is not Pedro or Clemens, again.)

Spotrac has these numbers for "market value." they do not list Yamamoto. In $ millions 37 Kershaw 25 Nola 24 Urias (must not read the news) 24 Snell 20 ERod 20 Gray 18 Montgomery 18 Wacha 17 Morton 16 Stroman 14 Clevinger 12 Giolito 12 Severino 12 Maeda 11 Flaherty 10 Greinke, Lugo, Kluber 9 Cueto, Paxton, Hill, Loernzen, Gibson 8 Velazquez, Ryu, Miley, Lynn 7 Carrasco, ZDavies 6 Wood, Teheran 4 B Keller

I'd like to see us sign.... A) 1 from Yamamoto, Gray, Nola, Snell 1 from Montgomery, ERod, Morton 1 from Wacha or Giolito/Stroman at the right price. 2 from Gray, Snell, Montgomery, ERod & Morton Plus Wacha

fangraph's had his 2023 value at $8.3M in 2023 and $0.0 in 2022. He was paid $10M over the 2 years. Not a bargain, but not a total bust, either. (He had -$6M value in '22 and +$4.3 value in '23.)