Maxbialystock

Can't argue with any of that.

No "Realistic View of 2017" can ignore the simple fact, as stated above by Nick, that the Sox right now, June 5, are just 2 games back of the Yankees and 1.5 games ahead of the Orioles and all others contending for an AL wild card slot. I say this almost with chagrin because I have been one of the chief whiners about this team and especially the hitting. Granted, we still have 2/3 of the season still to play, but nevertheless it is hard right now not to be just a little hopeful. So my hat's off to both Kimmi and Moonslav who have consistently said things ain't that bad, which clearly they are not. Funny thing is, I know I wrote way back in April and maybe March that I thought the loss of Ortiz would not be insurmountable. Right now, as Kimmi's numbers show, it still looks pretty bad, with to me the biggest disappointment being HanRam. I think most of the others--Betts, JBJ, Beni, Pedey, Moreland, C (leon and vazquez)--should be fine. 3B is likely to continue to be a problem, but heck, someone has to bat 9th. What partially redeems the hitting is that the pitching suddenly looks pretty darn good.

exactly

Looks like I was dead right with this one. Sale improved drastically as soon as he started throwing breaking balls and keeping it low. The question has to be, if a dummy--I'm not dumb, but I am a total amateur about about MLB--like me can see the problem, why the hell couldn't the pitching coach or for that matter Farrell? Forget today's game. Sale struggled for all of May too--struggling being a relative term for Sale. And all along I thought he was throwing too many fastballs.

Sorry, but I don't agree. Moreland just screwed up, simple as that. You can't teach or coach the ability to make good decisions on the basepaths. As for Sandoval, he is playing in part because the front office wants him to play, plus he made no error and so far has our only extra base hit. As for Marrero, maybe he got too used to playing 3b.

Marrero really is a lousy hitter.

We had 2 bare singles in the first inning, and the Orioles and two doubles and a single that maybe could have been a double. This ain't all on Sandoval even though I agree he screwed up in the field.

box score says no errors charged to the Sox, all 3 runs are earned, and that the Orioles hit 2 doubles in the 1st inning and could have had a third. I'm not sure Sandoval screwed up that tag--it was a very good slide--but I don't understand why he threw to second on the grounder.

Yes, the mistakes are bad, but the biggest problem is that Sale is now very, very hittable, I think because the only pitch he throws for strikes is the fast ball, so they can sit on it and not worry about a slider, curve, changeup, you name it.

I thought the two wins in St Louis were big and said so, then came the 3 losses in Oakland. Then the 6 game win streak, then winning 2 of 3 in Chicago followed but two losses here in Baltimore. So I agree with all the rest of you--we really need to win this game, not only to stay on track, but to keep the Orioles where they belong--behind us and the Yankees.

I'm not sure, but I think the difference between Price this year--so far--and Price last year is fewer straight fastballs and generally lower in the strike zone. In any case, last night he was masterful against a lineup that pummeled ERod the night before. Right now the Sox have six starters--Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod, Pomeranz, and Johnson--who have all pitched at least one solid game. Pomeranz and Porcello have the same ERA, 4.24. Plus a more than decent bullpen. If the hitting comes around, despite the absence of Ortiz, the Sox could be tough. On the other hand, right now the Yankees are ranked 4th in MLB in runs scored and 5th in ERA. Their turnaround from last year is astounding.

Indeed.

YOTN to the rescue!

This is one of the more astounding threads-I'm guessing here--in talksox history. I say that because it is now 82 pages long, the second longest on the front page of talksox forum, and it's about a rookie who looked promising last year and in April this year but is now struggling. At no time has looked as promising as the still young Mookie Betts has become and who I will bet never had an 82 page thread about him. In fact at the same age, 22, Betts was already way better--his overall WAR in 2015 was 4.9--than Benintendi is today. So the question has to be, why the fixation on Benintendi? He is small for a Sox left fielder. He is a decent but not great fielder with an average arm. He has good speed, but not the instincts of a JBJ or for that matter a Betts who started out as a secondbaseman. He is an OK baserunner. He did make that great over the wall grab last year in Tampa. He does have a sweet swing, no question, but right now also an inconsistent one. And he has long hair and he's white.

Last year at this point--54 games, 1/3 of the season--we were 10 games above .500. More and more it appears that the absence of Ortiz has brought everyone--except maybe Bogaerts, whose OPS is actually up--down from last year's scoring machine. Homers are way down and GIDP's are up. It would appear that the Sox/Bill James offensive philosophy--don't bunt, don't steal, don't hit and run, take lots of pitches but no chances, etc--requires at least one stud in the lineup and preferably two. Earl Weaver believed in great pitching and the 3 run dinger, and we are trending toward the former, but away from the latter. Marrero with his OPS of .536 kept the 3b job simply because he can field, which 3 others, including Sandoval, apparently can't do. I agree Benintendi will probably get better, ditto Betts and maybe JBJ. But Ramirez? Pedroia? Leon? Moreland? 3b?

I thought I'd revisit this thread because I started it way back in April and so feel a little pride of prophecy. We are now exactly 1/3 into the season--54 games--a significant statistical sampling--and 4 games above .500, which is nice, but actually below where we were last year at this point. Worse, the Sox are lagging despite having a much improved rotation. We came into this 4 game series at Baltimore with a stud rotation of Sale, Porcello (last year's cy young), ERod, Price (@$30M/year), and Pomeranz, whose ERA of 4.24 actually matches Porcello's. We also have one of the best closers in MLB in Kimbrel and some pretty good other relievers to back him up. In short, the pitching this year so far is much better than last year. But right now the Sox seem fully capable of being swept by the Orioles who just a week ago were in a tailspin with a 7 game losing streak. I would argue once again that it's the hitting and more specifically the absence of Ortiz which just might be killing this team which should be contending. Ortiz just might have been the best hitter (highest OPS) in MLB last year. More to the point, he also apparently made everyone else in that lineup better. I say this because most of those same hitters--HanRam, Pedroia, Betts, Leon, JBJ--are hitting worse this year than last. On top of which Beni is in a slump and Farrell is forced to use Marrero--OPS .536--at 3B simply because the errors by three others were killing us.

Ultimately, the manager bears the overall responsibility for wins and losses. That said, I am more and more convinced that the biggest problem with this team is the departure of Ortiz, over which Farrell had no control. The simple fact is that last year the hitting was terrific and this year it's so-so which experience says is simply not going to hack it for a Red Sox team. Ortiz was possibly the best hitter--certainly as measured by OPS--in MLB last year. That's significant, but it now appears that his bat in lineup lifted others' hitting and without his bat HanRam, Betts, Pedroia, JBJ, et al have lower OPS's than last year. Moreland, whose bat replaces Ortiz's in the lineup, is actually having a good year for him, but his OPS is 200 points lower than Ortiz's was. On top of all that, Benintendi, the very promising rookie who skipped AAA last year and seemed to be comfortable hitting (OPS .835) for Boston, has so far disappointed (OPS .711) this year as a regular in LF. We were all disappointed with the 3b situation last year, but this year Farrell has been forced to start Marrero, whose OPS of .562 has to be competitive for the lowest OPS for a regular in MLB, simply because he is a reliable fielding thirdbaseman. I'm not so much defending Farrell because I believe he bears some responsibility for overall team performance, but am asking the obvious question, what should he have done to fix the hitting which is the real problem with this team?

Meat of the order--Rutledge, Sandoval, and Leon--coming up in the 8th.

HanRam, however, is indeed a putz.

Nice 6th inning by Porcello--showed some grit with 2 men on and 1 out. He threw 118 pitches.

I gripe about Porcello, but it's the hitting that is killing this team. So far 2 lousy hits in 6 innings. Beni has struck out twice. The first 7 batters are hitless.

It would seem from the evidence that Porcello simply can't throw a pitch in the lower part of the strike zone.

He was lucky as hell last year. He might have a good repertoire, but his control stinks and none of his pitches are really great.

The bad news is that Porcello is already at 47 pitches in the 2d inning. The good news is that Porcello is now at 49 pitches in the 2d inning.

Our guys do not seem to be road warriors, on top of which they seem thoroughly intimidated playing the Orioles.