Maxbialystock

I have seen him swing at first pitches, but not often. He gets away with not swinging because he has a small strike zone, good read on pitches, and good hand-eye coordination. I agree too that our guys need to swing often enough to "keep them honest."

Maybe the movie Moneyball poisoned my mind, but I have to say I think the stats guys have come up with some pretty good numbers to mostly refute those hunches, etc based on experience. What I do think is sometimes ignored is a phrase Clausewitz used--"the enemy reacts." That means that for every new really great stat and with it a great new tactic, there will inevitably be a reaction by thoughtful managers to counter that tactic. My favorite--it's becoming a hobby horse I ride incessantly--is the propensity of Sox hitters to take the first pitch because Bill James--and Billy Beane in Moneyball--says that a walk is as good as a hit, to say nothing of the benefit of increasing the opposing starter's pitch count. The problem is that opposing pitchers, managers, and pitching coaches all know this propensity and consequently like to throw strikes on the first pitch to get ahead in the count. This do this with great regularity against Sox hitters. Another example is those bold shifts all managers now use with some regularity. Other managers, however, still have the opportunity to tell their hitters to bunt more or just to hit more to the opposite side of the infield. What I have read,however, is that hitters have decided to hit over those shifts by getting more loft into their swings. I think Kimmi makes a good case for taking a hard look at which hitter goes where in the lineup and that statistical analysis can inform that thought process. Just maybe, for example, our best hitters should bat 1st and 2d and 4th and 5th. On the other hand, I think it is also true that some players are more comfortable and hence more effective in unusual parts of the lineup. That said, however, I suspect this particular lineup, which no longer has a huge bat (like Ortiz's), could probably benefit from moving a couple or so players around.

Agree on all except that, with Devers doing so well at Portland and Marrero/Lin doing OK at 3b for now, I would not make a deal for another third baseman. That's exactly what Cherington did with Sandoval--caveat emptor. HRam is the perfect symbol of the effect of one guy on a batting order. He is our Ortiz this year, and he is way, way short of the mark. That is of course an unfair comparison because Ortiz just might be the first DH in the HOF, but it is also real. The Sox seem to me to be entering a new era when clubbing opposing pitchers into submission is unlikely, and the team must be more guileful with good pitching, decent defense and baserunning, and just enough hitting. This year the lineup's goal must be to score those 4 huge, gigantic, indomitable runs somehow, some way. Whenever the Sox do that, they win over 80% of the time. When they don't, they lose over 80% of the time.

Meh. The weak hitting last night was consistent with this season plus the short sleep plus the fact that the Rays pitcher was making his 6th quality start in 6 starts this year. Marrero in for Bogaerts, who is in a slump anyway, turned out to be a plus. Marrero not fielding a double? Are you serious? What about JBJ trying to throw that guy out getting back to 1b which led to a 2 base error? Now that was bonehead defense. Terrible attempt by Benintendi to steal 2d, granted, but why not try it in a game when getting runs was always going to be a problem? Beni is quick, just inexperienced or maybe not good at getting that essential quick start jump. My frustration during the game was our guys unwillingness to swing at first pitch fast ball strikes, then later swinging at pitches out of the zone. That two run dinger by the Rays was on a first pitch fast ball by Sale in the geometric center of the strike zone. Plus I think Eck was saying last night that our guys seem to have trouble reading pitches, which means they don't swing at hittable pitches and do swing at pitches outside the strike zone. All of the above notwithstanding, last night was in reality a golden opportunity for Tampa which they seized. Our guys, including Sale, were tired, and Tampa has a good hitting lineup this year, rested, and last night probably their best starter (6 of 6 quality starts). I gripe about our hitting, but it was bound to happen last night. Tampa is a tough out at home. I will be happy with a 2-2 split in this series.

Three games left on a 17 consecutive game streak without a day off and which includes three series and 10 games on the road. Plus short sleep Wednesday night. All of that might explain the weak hitting against a pitcher who has actually been very good--his 6th consecutive quality start--this year and the unnecessary throw by JBJ that led to a 2 base error. Sales handled that one nicely by getting the next two outs without giving up the run. This year Longoria is Tampa's 5th best hitter in terms of OPS and total bases, and that means this team can hit better than most past Tampa teams. And last night they beat our ace, Sale, in part because of the short sleep, but also because our guys have shown repeatedly they can't hit good pitching. Bogaerts was missing, but Marrero actually had one of our five hits plus our only rbi with a nice sac fly. This promises to be a tough series--such that I would be fine with a 2-2 split.

I'm sure you're right. But that doesn't change the fact that an opposing player did something our players would almost never do--hit a dinger on a first pitch.

Moreland, I should mention, will swing at the first pitch, but normally only if it is in the dirt. Sometimes he hits like a champ, but too often he is clueless on what kind of pitch is coming in and where it is going.

Maybe we can call it the Bill James syndrome, but it's a fact that our hitters just hate to swing at the first pitch and opposing pitchers know it. So they throw a fat pitch first to get that 0-1 count, which means that they only have to get a strike on either of the next two pitches to get the Sox hitter in a real hole, 1-2. Mookie in particular hates to swing at first pitches, so we just saw him K in 3 pitches. That two run dinger by Tampa? It was on a first pitch fast ball right down the middle by Sale. The hitter had 2 dingers all year and is hitting .231, but he sure knew what to do with a first pitch gopher ball. But it's a religion with our guys that they must under all circumstances take as many pitches as possible because pitch count or whatever is just so important.

Betts Pedroia Bogaerts Moreland Ramirez Benintendi Bradley Leon Lin Same lineup--except Leon for Vazquez--as last night, which did not go well. One of the few times Farrell has had 5 lefty bats against a righty starter this season. This lineup is also pretty optimal (for the Sox) on defense. Going by that book Kimmi mentions, I'm fine with Betts and Pedey 1st and 2d even though Betts's power says he should be 4th. Bogaerts 3d just might work since that is not a key hitter and Bogaerts these days seems to have a problem (my opinion, probably wrong) with pitch recognition. If Kimmi's book is right, Moreland and HanRam have no business batting 4th and 5th. moonslav says JBJ needs to be hitting 5th, and this time I agree. But here's the good news. The bottom of the order, 6th thru 9th--Beni, JBJ, Leon, and Lin--just might be better than the top of the order, and the top ain't that bad. Farrell likes to alternate lefty-righty-etc, but tonight he starts with three straight righties and finishes with four straight lefties.

Any time I was in the middle of the country, I could usually get the Cardinals games and the announcers seemed fine to me. Now I'm in the DC area and often get the Orioles radio announcers, and I think they are fine too. Definitely not homers. That's what I also like about Eckersley. Yes, sometimes he talks too much, but invariably he gives credit to the other team for a good play.

Some really interesting numbers in there. Thanks.

Actually, I was mostly agreeing with you. I had always thought the 3d hitter was the best one because of the examples I cited, but stats seem to be telling us otherwise--just as they tell us you can really go after pull hitters with bold shifts, which today everyone uses--a lot. But my other point is that sometimes your use of stats can become slavish. Thus when Sox hitters take too many pitches hoping for a walk or to just up the pitch count, they can be counterproductive.

Yes, but my mlb.com/tv package let's me pick the feed, which means NESN.

Makes sense.

I love the no contest idea, but worry about the lack of sleep, especially against Faria, a 6'4" 23 year old righty with 5 of 5 quality starts last month, a total of 32.1 innings and an ERA of 2.23 against the Orioles twice, Tigers, Jays, and White Sox. 3 of those 5 starts were away games. To date our lineup has not demonstrated an ability to overcome good starting pitching. Didn't we go hitless for the first five innings last night? So far this year the Sox have won 5 of 7 against Tampa, all 7 games at Fenway, so this is our first trip to Tropicana, one of the worst ballparks in MLB. They are dead last of 30 teams in attendance averaging 14,955--despite a winning record, especially at "home." Oakland is 29th with 18,498.

What I want to say is the Babe Ruth and Ted Williams both batted 3d for almost their entire careers. Were their managers stupid? What I am forced to say is that stats or moneyball or Bill James or however you want to put it are clearly changing the game. Forget everything else and just look at the heavy usage of those defensive alignments against known pull hitters, righty and lefty. Everybody is using them because they work, and they work because of statistical analysis. I personally hate OBP, which Kimmi says is the most important hitting stat, because I think Sox hitters rely on it so much it takes away their aggressiveness as hitters. Consequently, opposing pitchers will often throw fat pitches on the first pitch of an at bat in the secure knowledge Sox hitters won't swing. This gets them ahead in the count. Worse, it means that, if they can get a strike on either of the next two pitches, they put our hitter in a hole that is hard to recover from. Neverthless, OBP is important, and it could also be important to put your best hitters in the 1st and 2d slots and maybe in the 4th (and even the 5th).

I see the Tampa series as tough if only because the Rays flew back yesterday afternoon/evening and the Sox flew to Tampa from Dallas early this morning. On top of which, the Rays have a winning record at home (and winning overall) and will see this as an opportunity to move up. On our side, our four best--Sale, Pomeranz, Price, and Porcello--are pitching and we have probably seen the last of Fister. Surely ERod can make it back by right after the ASG break. As I said on page 2, last night was, except for the late start, the perfect loss when the hitting and pitching were both absent.

Bargain night. No hits in 5 innings--perfect night to have Fister go sour. But a very late flight to Tampa.

Betts Pedroia Bogaerts Moreland Ramirez Benintendi Bradley Vazquez Lin Vazquez catching his second straight game against a righty starter. But 4 lefty bats are still in the lineup. Vazquez caught Fister in his first two games. I could be wrong, but I think Farrell is trying to match starters with catchers rather than the usual platoon.

In his 2 starts for the Sox Fister went 5 against Toronto giving up 3 runs and 6 against the Angels giving up 3 runs. Rangers hitting is better than those two, but Fister could still do OK. Sox continue to have a great record when they score 4 or more runs.

Uehara of the Cubs just struck out Longoria with 2 outs and 2 on. Cubs up 5-3 after 7 1/2. Rays come to bat just one more time. A win tonight should mean 5 up on the Yankees and 6 on the Rays.

I get along great with Yankee fans in person because we usually know a lot about each others teams. Plus I always think of the Yankees as the worthy foe seeing as they are so darn rich. Plus they stole Damon which forces us to use Ellsbury, then stole Ellsbury and forced us to use JBJ. The one thing bad about the Yankees is they inevitably overpay players and raise all the salaries in MLB. I sure didn't like Joba though. Not at all.

So I took a quick look at various splits--Betts, Bogaerts, Beni, Moreland, HanRam--and found that, season to date, the most at bats with men on base was Beni with 135. In second place was Betts with 126. Maybe I'm ignorant, but I just don't see a huge difference in those numbers. I would also offer this thought. It's even easier this season than last to give a good hitter an intentional walk. In other words, I'm fine with wherever Farrell slots him. I also think Lin/Marrero have together solved 2 problems at 3b--hitting and fielding. I notice that Beni also still gets platooned with Young when the opposing starter is a lefty. I would be opposed to trying to buy or, worse, trade for a thirdbaseman because Devers is still doing well at Portland. Call it blind stupid luck or whatever you want to call it, but 3b is no longer a big problem or maybe even any problem at all--say I with all the confidence of a sample of 10 games of at bats for Lin. The current streak to me is really 9 games old and includes the first three against the Twins at Fenway. And to me what stands out is that no one Sox hitter has taken charge. Rather one night it's Pedroia with those nasty singles, then Beni, then Betts, then Lin, then JBJ, then whoever. Back in the early John Henry years you had to be stupid not to love having Manny--even with Manny being Manny--and Ortiz in the middle of that lineup. It took a dip when Manny left, but in 2013 and again last year it did pretty darn well with just Ortiz and some other good bats but not great ones. Right now it seems to be working with mostly singles and a few doubles and occasional dingers, and it's working because the pitching is currently the best in the AL (if ERA means anything). I might add that the pitching is helped by having Lin/Marrero at 3B vs. Rutledge, Pablo, whoever. I doubt that Devers is as good a fielder as Lin or Marrero. We can all have our own theories about how to fix things, but me, I kind of like the way this team is playing right now. Forget last night and look at Monday's game when Porcello goes 6.1, giving up 3, and Scott gives up another and, horror of horrors, our immaculate closer gives up the game-tying dinger in the 9th. This just gives Hembree a chance to go 2 extra innings and Beni to get that weak single that capitalizes on the walk to Lin, the double by Betts, and the walk to Pedroia. Wasn't that great? So let's hear it for the status quo.

Conversely, you are then forced to say that losing doesn't change your opinion either. I'm the opposite. I think that winning and losing are the only things that should be used to gauge a manager's effectiveness. As for what's going on right now--basically, winning 9 of 10 against the Twins (best road record in the AL), Jays, and Rangers--it seems to mostly be tied to improved hitting. And there are I think two reasons for that: 1) playing Lin, especially against righty starters; 2) hitting throughout the lineup and making those singles count. Lin seems a lot like Beni a year ago when he was brought up in I think August and was hitting right away, also from the left side. DD gets credit for acquiring Sale and Kimbrel and I guess Price (who is not yet the Price they are paying for). Cherington gets credit for Pablo and HanRam. But Farrell has to get some credit for what the team is doing now. Price was lousy last year and took 2 months out this year but still seems capable of pitching well. Pomeranz is the surprise of the year. Wright the wunderkind knuckleballer is gone. So was Price, and now so is ERod, so it's not like the rotation has been there all along. Porcello has lost his command, but is I think working hard to regain it--but he sure ain't no Cy Young guy. The bullpen overall has been the most reliable part of the whole team, and it's the one tool the manager has at his disposal with which he can make a difference if he does it right. On the downside, it's just a hot streak, and that won lost record only points toward 94 wins. Another 8 pm start tonight, then a longish flight to Tampa, who plays this afternoon and gets home early, against a team that is still playing decent ball--especially hitting--and would love to take 3 of 4 before the ASG.

Talk about a tough crowd. D-money wants Price to throw some gopher balls so Texas can make a comeback. Fact is, despite still not having great command of all his pitches, he threw 68.5% strikes thru the first six innings while giving up 0 runs. like I said, d-money must want to see Texas score some runs.