Maxbialystock

You're right of course. 3 games is a really small sample. But you can't ignore all the downsides in these three games, especially the rotation, nor the fact that Yankees have now made up a game and are 3.5 games out, nor that the Guardians are at home vs. the Royals, whom they beat last night and against whom they have the pitching edge tonight again. If they win, they will be .5 games back to get that home field advantage in the ALDS. Once again the Sox have a losing record against the Orioles, but fortunately I think we only play them 3 more times, including tomorrow. This pennant race is getting tighter here in late August. It is note too early to indulge in a little worrying. Humor me.

I should add that my impression of this Sox pitching staff is that overall they like to throw fast balls way more than pitches that break down although Pomeranz does like his knuckle curve. Not throwing more breaking balls somewhat negates the effect of those shifts the Sox and other teams employ so often.

ERod went 6.2 innings and threw 117 pitches. His arm seems fine. Maybe the pitching coach should use some of that arm strength to get a useful bullpen session before the game, including demonstrated command of his changeup so he can use it early and often and not wait until the game is out of hand. I say again: killed in the first two innings when he threw almost all fastballs and no changeups; great success the next 4.2 innings when he finally throws changeups to set up his other pitches.

Now four straight smooth innings, all because he finally started throwing changeups. It's his best pitch and he won't use it early in the game. Just as bad, his manager and pitching coach haven't tried to change that pattern. ERod has given up 5 runs in 6 innings and totally outclassed Sale's last start and Porcello's last start. The world turned upside down. The lineup meanwhile has 2 weak singles in 6 innings and 0 runs.

Make that three in a row, and don't forget to mention the how: terrible pitching, weak hitting, and so-so defense including 5 errors in the second game. ERod gave up 5 in the first 2 innings, but guess what? He has outpitched Sale and Porcello in this three game streak.

Maybe players weekend means you get to play and not have to worry about the nasty grind of competing and trying to win.

I get it. It's players weekend. My question is when are the Boston players going to show up? In both games so far their pitching is terrible, but so are the fielding and hitting. Young just hit a GIDP (but beat out the relay) on a 94 mph fastball in the heart of the strike zone.

Is anyone else watching this game? ERod gets clobbered in the 1st and 2d innings throwing an overabundance of fast balls and I think no changeups. He starts using changeups big time in the 3d inning and has now had 3 very effective innings. What the heck is wrong with Farrell and the pitching coach that they allow ERod to do this?

Read my first post on this thread, the one with the lineup. In there I say that Devers' least effective batting order position is 5th, season to date. Batting 5th his OPS is like 400 points below 6th, 7th, and 9th combined.

Good memory.

My memory of the great Josh Beckett is that he loved his fast ball in 2006 almost as much as AL hitters did. Part of the problem I think was that he had some weird skin condition that created blisters or something when he threw breaking balls. Finally a Sox doctor or a consultant got him taking some kind of medicine that cured that condition. When he was pretty sure he was good to go, he started out the first inning throwing breaking balls to satisfy himself he was cured. The Sox need to do that with ERod. For the first two innings, only 1 in 3 or 1 in 4 fastballs. Reverse Nuc Laloosh's dictum of establishing the fastball. Instead, establish the breaking stuff, especially the changeup, which I'm beginning to think might be the best changeup on the Sox.

Wow. That changeup is really working. Three more easy outs, and the single was a poorly hit roller Nunez was slow to get to and throw.

Splitters plus a 98 mph fast ball. ERod is totally outclassed today.

Neat thing about splitters is they work equally well against righties and lefties. But of course the Sox pitchers either disdain splitters and simply can't throw them.

Gausman's splitter, on the other hand, seems pretty effective. You know, the guy with the 5.17 ERA. Are we still enduring players' weekend with the silly nicknames? I'm thinking El Guapo for ERod. Or maybe El Foldo.

Maybe ERod's doctor gives him a note saying his arm/hand/wrist can't do breaking balls until later in the game. And apparently that note works with his catcher, pitching coach, and manager. Doctor's orders: steady diet of fastballs until the game is out of hand.

Look at that--a changeup below the zone for a swinging strike followed by an outside cutter for strike three. Lucky on the third out--first pitch fastball slightly inside but very hittable to Chili Davis. As I said on page 1, ERod ain't to bad after he gets thru the first two innings. He is simply not ready when he steps to the mound to start a game. This is provable.

After two changeups, a cutter up in the zone--good. And a popup.

Nice. A slider, which is good, but not up in the zone.

Rod is not a serious pitcher. He's a thrower. That 3 run dinger came after something like 8 straight fast balls. Watching him makes me think of the scarecrow in the Wizard of Oz singing, "if I only had a brain." That should also apply to whoever is calling the pitches, Vazquez or the bench.

Unfortunately, prophetic. All the hits off his fastballs, of which he is throwing a lot.

Didn't I read somewhere that momentum is all about your next starter? We lost our last two games when our bonafide ace and last year's Cy Young winner completely bombed. Porcello, FWIW, getting a cool $20M for this very subpar season, Sale a bargain (for now) at $12M. So my take is that this is one more big game among so many, and we need ERod not to give away a bunch of early runs as he has been prone to do. His splits say in his first 30 pitches for the season he has given up 26 runs in 18 games, and in his next 30 pitches 14 runs. He's given up 8 dingers in those first 30 pitches and 4 in the next 30. In other words, when the game starts, he is not ready.

Nunez 2b Betts RF Benintendi CF Ramirez DH Devers 3b Bogaerts SS Moreland 1b Young LF Vazquez C Interesting. Nunez is back! No Rafai Davis or Holt. Just three lefty bats--Beni, Devers, and Moreland--against righty Gausman. Devers back in the 5 slot and HanRam back at cleanup, which I believe I forbade Farrell to do. Young in LF against a righty, but he also was 2 for 4 against righty Hellickson, who I thought pitched very well despite the ERA over 5. Yankees still 4.5 back, but the Guardians now just 1.5--2016 all over again. Last year home field advantage seemed decisive in the ALDS. Vazquez could be in there as much for his defense as offense. Leon is starting to look like Salty on throws to 2b--an adventure every time. Nevertheless, his DWAR is 1.0 vs. Vazquez's -0.2, so what do I know? Three--Devers, Beni, and Bogie--of last night's errant throwers are back today, but not Leon or Porcello. Wild applause for Moreland pitching the 9th last night and a good move by Farrell.

My box score says only 7 unearned runs. But five errors, all on bad throws. What did Casey Stengal say back in the early Mets years when Marvelous Marv Throneberry ("stone hands") played 1b? "Can't anybody out there play this game?" In his last 10 appearances, Kelly has given up 8 runs in 10 innings. His 100 mph fastball ain't enough when the other team can sit on it knowing he can't throw a curve or other breaking ball for a strike. The Sox team ERA has dropped back to 2d best in the AL maybe because of an over-reliance on fastballs along with an inability to hit spots, especially with breaking balls. At his best, Uehara couldn't throw a fast ball over 90 mph for love nor money. But he had that great splitter, terrific command of his pitches, and total confidence when he threw a pitch. Because of that he seemed to be able to throw that nothing fastball with impunity. That's pitching. Sale has a darn good slider and pretty good control of it too, but the problem is that like 80% of the guys he faces are righties, which reduces the effectiveness of that slider. He has a decent changeup, but my guess is that, even against righty batters, he uses it about 1/3 as often as the slider. And, of course, he has the terrific fastball that he still throw 50% of the time. Porcello's basic problem, I think (and will await someone else's analysis), is that he cannot consistently keep the ball low in the strike zone in an era when smarter pitchers have realized that that ability alone is more important than having great stuff which Porcello also does not have. Those shifts, which are having a pronounced effect on hitters, have caused some of them to want to get the ball in the air over the shifts. This in turn makes controlling the lower part of the strike zone ever more important to enable those shifts to be effective. I think the Sox pitching coach has done a good job this year, but not with Porcello. Or maybe Porcello is dumb as a post.

About Steven Wright, sox prospects summation is: potential for fringe fifth starter. He was better than that, but not as good as the hype last year on talksox. I mean, his knuckler would come and go. But, heck, control has been an issue for Porcello this year to a degree that is mind-boggling. Ditto ERod. Pomeranz gets away with basically 2 pitches--a 91 mph fast ball and an excellent knuckle curve--because they work well in tandem, because he works hard at hitting spots with steadily improving command, and because--contrary to what I have said much too often about him--he is very determined. His turnaround this year came after he publicly complained about Farrell taking him out too soon. I thought Farrell was right, but liked Pomeranz speaking up, especially when he backed the words up with deeds. ERod should have that determination, but that 95 mph fast ball of his makes him think that's all he really needs. I think Fister is similarly determined, and Sale the consummate professional baseball player who also happens to be a very good pitcher. He is that rare blend of hyper-competitive but also very focused.