Maxbialystock

Since I'm the only one who said this and said it in the game thread and before the game started, this is me being boastful. I was dead right on both main points. But, to be honest, it was probably blind stupid luck, which is what I have often relied upon.

Neat. Bottom of the order comes thru at just the right time. That's why I love a distributed lineup that can hurt you from the top, middle and bottom. Well, except for Holt of course.

Wow. 6 innings, 3 runs, quality start, but about as brutal a one as I can remember. Two incredible escapes, but neither was luck. Really smart play by Devers on the grounder in the 5th with 3 on. He first checked the hitter to see if a GIDP was possible after touching 3B. No. So he thru a strike to force out the guy going home.

Good. But you ignored the last part. Would you agree they were actually good plays for which the manager gets some credit?

Two great sliders to strike out Devers looking. Just found the outside of the plate, and they were sharp breaking too. I think we have hit a couple or so extra liners tonight right to Jays outfielders. Now just two, but two extra because we've hit a lot of balls hard.

OK. Here's me back on my hobby horse. Subject is managerial and baserunning blunders. I feel certain that, had Vazquez been out going to 2b, this would have been brought up by several is simply gambling and not even with a chance of success. All Farrell's fault of course. The second is the bottom of the 5th. Left Pom in with the bases loaded and 1 out. I guarantee, had the Jays scored, this would have led to a discussion about how Farrell doesn't have a brain in his head. Everyone knows Pom was through. Farrell needs a brain wave check. And here's the best part. No one, but no one--except me--will actually say that in both instances Farrell actually deserves some credit. But doing that is virtually forbidden on talksox. Off my soapbox, now.

Pom also kind find the corners. Most of those hits by theJays are in the middle of the zone.

Down 3-2 after 4 12. Both teams with 6 hits, but the Jays better are grouping theirs. Middle--Beni, Betts, Moreland, Devers--of the order is hitless. Toronto pitcher has at least 3 pretty good pitches, including a changeup and a slider. Plus fastball, of course. Pom is battling.

Holt killing us tonight. Killing us. Jays pitcher got a called strike in the same exact spot where Pom got a ball--low outside corner.

I always have the sound off. Sometimes I'll have closed captions. Most of my games, like tonight, are from mlb.com

Houdini lives! Pom, the great escape artist. Two crucial GIDP's so far, and the game is young.

Nunez dinger, nice. Pomeranz 3d and Betts grab, even nicer.

I was wrong about Pom and thought he was a wimp, but tonight likes like a battler. They took away they knuckle curve, so now he's careful and relying on his fastball for the outs, and it's working. Good 2d inning, especially with the ump on the Jays hitter's side.

Now the umpire's into it too, taking away two corner strikes, both great pitches by Pom. Right now both starters are trending toward 5 innings.

That's now three opposite field hits by the Jays. Do they have Pomeranz number?

What was that??? Terrible top of the 2d until HanRam slaps a single that becomes a double, then barely gets to 3b on a single to RF with 2 out, Holt now at bat. Long count, one slightly mishandled WP, so Vazquez throws caution to the winds and goes for second. You know, the typical boneheaded play this team is constantly accused of making. What was he thinking? But the catcher, rushed, throws it into CF and even HanRam can score on that. Then Holt grounds out to the P. I'll take it.

Not good, 2 runs off 2 doubles in the 1st, but I gotta give the Jays some credit for smart hitting. Both were off his best pitch, the knuckle curve, so they just waited a microsecond or two longer and slapped them to the opposite field. Worked like a charm. I think the pitches might have been slightly up in the zone, but still. I'm probably wrong, but I don't see our guys batting smart like that--especially back to back--very often if at all.

Two things. 1. I'm now on the moonslav bandwagon. After griping about every single game and pointing to the Yankees catching us and all that stuff, I'm now saying we should put those 4 games behind us and focus on the great earlier August when we were winning right and left and beating good teams like the Yankees, Guardians, and Cardinals. What happened in those four losses is we got three absolutely horrendous starts by Sale, Porcello, and ERod. Stuff happens. Sale is still an ace. I'm not sure Porcello has got it together yet, but he was good last year and still is an innings eater and has 17 quality starts of 27 total. ERod has pitched well after the first 2 two innings, which have killed him. There is nothing systemically wrong with this team--it's the same team that won 16 of 20 earlier. Blaming Farrell for those 4 starts is nuts. No one can show me one hard fact or one specific decision that cost any of those 4 losses. If the Sox don't get to the postseason or don't get thru the first round, i would not object to his leaving. But not now. 2. i really like the lineup tonight--it's a lot like the one I proposed to moonslav. HanRam dropped to 7th--great. 1, 3, and 5 hitters, all key, are Nunez, Betts, and--surprise!--Bogie. All good choices, even Bogie who seems to be getting his eye and swing back. 2, 4, and 6 are almost as good--Beni, Moreland, and Devers. I checked guys splits, and Moreland, especially against righties, is as good as anyone on the team in the 4 slot. And I really like Devers in 6th both because I think he hits better lower than 5th and because the #6 hitter can do a lot of damage. 7, 8, and 9--HanRam, Vazquez, and Holt also work for me. Vazquez has prospered near the bottom. HanRam needs to because he ain't doing much up above (and I could care less about his so-called injuries). Holt for Rajai Davis but batting 9th also works because so far Rajai hasn't shown me much, but Holt has (despite that terrible OPS), plus he's a lefty and good on the bases, which connects well to the top of the order. Pomeranz on the mound right now is, at least temporarily, is our ace based on his record.

Knock it off. All due respect--and your deserve a lot--but you are beating a dead horse. Plus you examples show you don't understand jack about "don't try to do too much." Those guys were all great power hitters and almost couldn't help hitting all those dingers. Simple fact about this team: we're 27th or so of 30 MLB teams in dingers. So just maybe it makes sense not to swing for the fences every time up and be happy with an opposite field single or whatever.

Well-coached? This ain't little league or college. The operative word is managed because most of the coaching has already taken place. That's why those guys go thru the long, long trail of successively harder minor league baseball, to say nothing of all the coaching before then. On top of which, most of them have significant major league experience. On this team the only two novices are Beni and Devers, and they seem to me to be doing fine with respect to mental mistakes. Besides, the core of all MLB games are those those 300 pitches per game and the confrontations between hitters and pitchers. You hit and/or pitch well, you have a good shot at winning. You don't, you don't. It's that simple. Today, finally, both teams had good pitching and weak hitting, but we left 25 on and were 1 for 13 with RISP, but I sure didn't see any blunders, let alone any that affected the outcome. In fact, the last 4 excruciating games, all losses and the big reason why we are once again debating Farrell, actually demonstrated that hitting and pitching are everything. In the first three games we had terrible pitching. In the last two games we scored 1 run in 18 innings. If there were blunders, they had no effect on any of those games. No disagreement on the pitching, which overall has been very good this year, especially for a Sox team. One ace and one great closer, however, do not a great pitching staff make, not with 10 or 11 other guys you must also rely on. Pomeranz, agreed, has been a pleasant surprise lately and has the 3d highest pitching WAR after Sale and Kimbrell, I don't think it's been luck. He gets the most out of that knuckle curve, fast ball, and I think a cut fastball, but he ain't exactly an innings-eater, averaging about 5 1/2 per start. He's pitched 7 innings once, so he needs a good bullpen backing him up. Porcello has turned no corners--my gosh, his pitching WAR is a flat zero. Do you just make this stuff up? ERod lately gets killed early then settles down. Fister, lately and amazingly, has been better than ERod, which you saw today. His prior start was a complete game gem. After Kimbrel and Reed, the entire bullpen is suspect, no exceptions. We all love Sale, what a great player, but he might be getting tired. He leads MLB in innings pitched. He averaged 5 innings in his last two starts and gave up 11 runs (7 of which were in his latest start). If we do win the AL East, it's odds on we play the Guardians, and they own Sale, shocking as that sounds.

I hear you, but disagree on most of it maybe because I have only been able to watch games regularly since I think 2004 or so when I got a MLB package from one of the satellite firms. "Looking like an absent-minded professor" is in the eye of the beholder because I frankly don't see it. I don't disagree that this year, as last year, how the season ends decides Farrell's job status. If we lose a key playoff game because of a key bonehead play, I will likely be on your bandwagon. About the boneheaded plays and blunders. Only a few of them really fit that description and I see just as many by teams we play except for the most conservative. More to the point, baseball is unique among all major sports in that it is dominated by the catcher-pitcher confrontations. 300 pitches (I'm guessing). That's where games are won and lost--the last 4 games being a perfect example. We got killed in three, but not because of any blunders, and we lost the last game, a close one, also without any blunders. Every team makes errors (but some field better than others). The aggressive base running, according to Kimmi's stats, has not hurt and is justified by the dearth of dingers. Lately, it's been particularly successful.

There you go with the optimism again. Good to see.

Nice. However, you have to ask why Betts, now in his 3d full year, has never been slotted 4th (to any great degree, anyway). I think it's because he has too much speed, plus batting earlier gets him more at bats. Not batting 4th in those 3 years, he has nevertheless led the team in runs scored all three years, leads the team in rbi's this year, was second in rbi's last year with 113 to Papi's 122, and was 3d in rbi's in 2015 with 77 to Bogie's 81 and papi's 108. I mean, doesn't that suggest slotting him higher has worked pretty well? Throw Pedey out this year. Good slotting, but bad timing. I agree he can be slotted anywhere in the top 4 and do well. No complaints about the vs. lefties lineup except for Pedey. But the vs. righties lineup is the one most used and therefore the most important. I notice no HanRam even though his vs. lefty-righty splits are pretty close. More rbi's per at bat vs. lefties, but more dingers per at bat vs. righties, and about the same OPS's. His K/BB ratio, however, is much better vs. lefties. Still. If Pedey can play and play well or just hit and hit well, I might agree, but I have severe doubts about that knee. Granted it's a small sample size, but the evidence for leaving Devers in the bottom 4 of the lineup is overwhelming. I don't care what he did in the minors. MLB pitchers are better and have more access to videos and analysis of hitting weaknesses. Plus I think he can do good things down there. He's had now 56 at bats batting 5th with 8 rbi's. He's had 20 at bats batting 7th with 7 rbi's. Spread that over 500 at bats and you are looking at 140 rbi's. Of course that would never happen because, if he did that well for just the first two months of a season, no manager would fail to move him up. Absent that kind of data, we have to use those 28 games, which say unequivocally that he is better further down in the order and also productive, which is really the point, isn't it? If Pedey is out, HanRam is back in vs. righties. My lineup would then be-- Nunez Beni Bogey (sounds terrible, but he's done it a lot this year and his stroke seems to be returning) Betts (you said he can do it, the only problem is putting so much base running talent in the cleanup slot) Moreland (50 rbi's vs. righties and an OPS over .800) (plus I want 2 lefty bats in the first 5 and don't think Devers or JBJ are up to that based on their splits) HanRam (this could be a very good fit for him--less pressure)_ Devers or JBJ JBJ or Devers Leon/Vazquez What I like about my lineup is that it spreads the wealth through all 9 slots. No rest for opposing pitchers getting to the bottom of the order especially when all three (if Leon is catching) hit from the left side. But the top of the order ain't too shabby either. The question is the middle, the 4,5, and 6 slots. Betts should be fine. Moreland is 3d on the team in rbi's with fewer at bats than the first two, Betts and Beni. And, as I said, HanRam might benefit from dropping down and the 6th slot can be very productive.

I don't think it's that simple. I looked at the splits of the top 7 rbi guys in the lineup: Betts, Beni, Moreland, JBJ, Pedroia, Bogie, and HanRam--in that order. What the splits say are: Betts is far better in the first three slots than 4th, ditto Beni. Moreland is OK 4th or 5th, but not a standout, plus he has problems hitting lefty pitchers. JBJ absolutely can't hit well anywhere but in the bottom 4 slots, where he has been pretty good overall (average OPS over .800). Pedroia is best batting 2d or 3d, this year anyway. Bogie is decent anywhere but 4th. HanRam, bad as he is, has OPS's as good as anyone else batting 4th or 5th. Devers, with 20 runs, 17 rbi's and 8 dingers in 28 games, just might be the best of the bunch, but he is a dead ringer for JBJ--he is way better in the 6th thru 9th slots. I completely agree we need a better clean-up and a better guy in the 5th slot, but so far HanRam and Moreland get those jobs by default. In the roughly 15 years of the John Henry era, I can think of only two really good hitters it clean up slot--Manny and Papi. No surprise that both were on the WS winners of 2004 and 2007--and Ortiz on the 2013 winners. I think Devers could be that good next year or the year after. If Pedroia were healthy, I'd be tempted to bat him 4th because in the past he was good at it--he likes that pressure. I think HanRam thrived last year because he mostly hit before or after Papi.

Boy you are good. Those are stunning numbers. Well done. But, as you should be reminding me, let's not forget that, until these 4 losses, the 2d half team as a whole has done way better than the 1st half team. Before the ASG, the Sox were 11 games above .500. Before these 4 games, they were 20 games above .500. What's missing from those numbers, obviously, are Nunez and Devers.