Maxbialystock

All credit to Happ, agreed. But you are exaggerating by a fair amount what you think Porcello is not doing right. If he were doing what you say, he would get hammered. He's now gone 6, giving up 1 run and 5 hits with 1 BB and 7 K's. How in the wide world of sports is that a lousy start? In fact, given my expectations, he does exactly what I thought he couldn't do--pitched well to give the Sox a real shot on a night when Happ has great stuff, great command, and an ump with a nice strike zone.

He just has nasty stuff, almost all of it low. Plus, as someone else said, he's getting some calls.

With the Guardians sweeping the Yankees today, we need this win--and a sweep--to keep pace. moonslav is right. Yankees aren't the issue at this point.

Besides, the hitting is the problem tonight, in my opinion anyway. We need Happ out of there.

I am well aware of his season and have commented on it repeatedly. This is another game with its own dynamic. In the same way Sale can pitch an absolutely horrible game, Porcello can pitch a good one. And oh by the way it's now 1 run in 5 innings just like that. You guys want to throw him under the bus when he's actually pitching a pretty good game, and I am not saying he is having a good year.

Tie game. Anybody calmed down yet? Great at bat by HanRam before the dinger--worked to get his pitch. After that GIDP on an outside pitch, this is super.

A little hasty I think on the Porcello condemnations for 1 run in 4 innings. Plus Happ's control tonight is unreal.

I like that first inning by Porcello. Despite the double, authoritative.

Stunning. Happ seems able to hit any corner, especially low and outside, he wants to when he wants to.

You're in the minority because your more sure of the Sox postseason prospects that most of the rest of us. You want the WS, we just want to go to the dance (march madness metaphor). I too have been tracking the Guardians all along and have periodically said so. They swept last year in part because of the home field--hence the need to beat them to the #2 slot--but also because our starting pitching stunk. This year it's better even if the hitting is worse.

You're in the minority because your more sure of the Sox postseason prospects that most of the rest of us. You want the WS, we just want to go to the dance (march madness metaphor). I too have been tracking the Guardians all along and have periodically said so. They swept last year in part because of the home field--hence the need to beat them to the #2 slot--but also because our starting pitching stunk. This year it's better even if the hitting is worse.

Yes, but this is the better lineup and Leon could not prevent the bloodbath of Porcello's last start. If you dragged Leon into a court of law and accused him of being a great fit for Porcello, I'm not sure you could get a conviction. I personally think Leon is the better catcher (except, these days, for his arm), but Vazquez sure ain't no big step down. I wish he blocked pitches better, but that's about it.

All good points, especially Manny vs. JD Drew--thanks for the reminder. I forgave Manny the dreadlocks and even Manny being Manny because of that great bat. And I positively, absolutely never liked JD Drew even though he was pretty darn close to a bonafide five tool player: hit,hit for power, throw, field, and run. He was just too darn fragile for my taste, and by far his best year was before he came to Boston where is best rbi total was 68. As for HanRam, I still don't like the dreadlocks, but, as illinoisox says, his performance doesn't make up for my hair fetish (I'm pretty sure it's not racial, but of course can't prove it). The performance case against HanRam is simple. He has the 4th most at bats on the team, and his OWAR (offensive wins against replacement) is 0.2, and the next lowest is 1.2. His overall WAR, 0.3, ranks him as the 148th best player in the AL, but at $20M/year of course. Better value than Pablo, for sure, but the Sox right now are paying Sandoval not to play for us, so that's a pretty low standard. He's still in the Sox uniform, however, and because of that I root for him whenever he does something good, like last night's very timely dinger.

Good words from moonslav. I think the panic in the streets--in which I was a participant--was mostly because of the weak hitting because historically (John Henry era) the Sox have had good hitting almost every year. The pitching however has been way above average for us. Indeed, our ERA is second best in the AL--how about that! Our ERA is also wedged between Cleveland's best in the league and the Yankee's 3d best. Now ain't that food for thought? In years past I used to claim that hitting--scoring runs--drove the standings in the AL, but, after the Astros, those three are the next tier. And, because pitching can be so important in the postseason, maybe one of those three will brush the Astros aside. Meanwhile, however, the hitting has been the problem, which is why the 3 of the 4 additions moonslav cited are all here because of their bats. Pitching wins games, but not without some support--see our ace about that.

I also agree that Pedroia returning is all good if it's the one we saw earlier this season. Farrell should be able to play both of them without difficulty. Plus we don't yet know which Pedroia is coming back. He's missed 46 games this year, including the last 28.

I can live with almost any arrangement for a game or two. But I have to say what worries me most about Nunez is going back for pop-ups. He truly does not seem to have a nose for the ball in the air. Bogaerts is I think much better at that, and SS's do that a lot--going straight back, going toward CF, and going toward and past the LF line.

A question: if your don't believe line-up slots make a significant difference, what the heck are we arguing about? I enjoy arguing, for one thing. But, believe me, I am normally happy with almost any lineup, especially right now thanks to your "everybody is gravitating toward the OPS mean of .750" theory. In that context, almost any lineup should work. I like talking about the idea of any given lineup mostly because it's pre-game stuff. I like that "comfortable slot" idea, but am not wedded to it. Your numbers and reminders about Devers minor league slots are good points. Plus, as I said, I'm happy if Farrell moves him right back up to the 5th or higher slot. In the heat of the moment, I will admit, I was grasping at straws when the great Devers was looking a little too human--thus the comfort zone thesis. When my prediction--moving him back down--seemed to go right, I crowed about it. But I cannot emphasize too strongly the kid has great potential, has already delivered on much of it way sooner than we expected, and can bat anywhere. You are right about that.

Definitely want a sweep because our guys are due a longer bounce back from the horrible 4. Of those 6 games--4 losses, 2 bounce back wins--the most common thread is starting pitching. In both wins the starting pitching was good to very good, both quality starts by Pom and Sale. In 3 of the losses the starting pitching was terrible--Sale then Porcello then ERod, who turned out to be the best because he went 6.2 innings and "only" gave up 5 runs. Fister pitched great (another quality start), but lost, not because we couldn't hit, but because we couldn't drive anyone home. The Sox left 25 guys on base. The second most common thread is weak hitting--19 runs in 6 games is 3.3 runs per game. As someone once said, momentum is all about your next starting pitcher. Happ gave up 5 in 6 innings his last time and lost to the Twins in Toronto. Porcello went 4.2 and gave up 11 (4 earned) to the Orioles at Fenway. Gotta give the pitching edge to Toronto. Given the last 6 games, maybe the hitting edge too. But a baseball game is like of box of chocolates: you never know what you're going to get. In NYC, meanwhile, the Guardians are up 2-1 in the 6th, Bauer vs. Garcia.

I already said the locks bother me, but have generally refrained from beating up on Young because last year I thought he was a pretty smart acquisition. He's a good all-around outfielder, especially when he can stand in for Betts (not often) in RF. He can hit too and has for us. Definitely having a down year, the second and last year of his contract. So for now I'm still rooting for him even though I get mad when he doesn't hit. Lurking in my mind however is whether he should return. All that said, a slightly new thought. i just looked at the Sox hitting stats based on number of at bats this season. The first 8 are the usual suspects--Betts, Beni, Bogaerts, Moreland, JBJ, Pedey, Vazquez, and HanRam (but not in that order). Sure enough, just as you keep saying, all 8 OPS's are right around .750. 9th most at bats, Leon, drops down to .660 OPS, but he's a catcher. Then 10th, Young is .720. So he's OK, if a bit lower than the top 8. Here's my point. Next to the OPS's (on espn) are the OWAR's (offensive wins above replacement) for everyone. Of those top 10 at bats leaders, of whom 9 (excluding Leon) have OPS's in the 700's, only 3 have low OWAR's: HanRam at 0.2 (and he has the 4th most at bats), Leon at 0.2, and Young at 0.3. All seven of the other leaders in at bats range from 1.2 (Vazquez and Moreland) to Bogaerts (2.7). We can probably agree OWAR overvalues Bogaerts, but I'm not sure they are undervaluing HanRam.

Solid thinking, good evidence. Like moonslav, I think his best slot is probably 3d or 4th. But I'm not so sure about right now, which is when we need him contributing in the late stages of a very competitive pennant race with a lot at stake. Agree completely the stats have a very small sample size, but that's all we've got. So far dropping him down has worked. But absolutely nothing will prevent Farrell from moving him right back up, even higher than 5th, when he thinks it will work. To me the point is to find the right slot to make him effective. And, oh, by the way, I kind of like good hitting spread throughout the lineup. moonslav has made a big issue of the simple fact that over time this season all of the OPS's are kind of coalescing around .750. Even if Farrell were to move Devers up and he hits, I'm not so sure that we would be a whole better than hitting 6th or 7th given the dynamics of this lineup.

Meh. All we have are our opinions. We think we're pretty smart, especially when we agree on something. But even moonslav, who relishes going after Farrell, says John knows more about baseball than we do. About Vazquez. Let's not forget that our strength this year has been the pitching staff, and in my judgment Leon is a better catcher if not hitter--and that's despite his recent trials throwing guys out at 2b. I think the pitchers think that too. Maybe it's psychological, but,whatever it is, a good manager must be very attentive to those dynamics and is far more likely than we to know who is best. And that includes--just as you say--sometimes using Vazquez precisely because he has the hot bat. Plus he does have good catcher skills. DH'ing him is a terrible idea. Almost as bad, pinch-hitting for anyone other than Leon. Come September (days away), however, Farrell should be able to use Vaz any which way he wants to.

Too many of us, but not me, underrate Sabathia. He is a real pro, an experienced starter who has adapted well to losing that blazing fastball because he still has great command of an assortment of breaking balls. Andy Pettite did the same thing for years but didn't have the variety of tools Sabathia has. Sabathia loves to keep the ball down. I think his size and reach may help him hide the ball better during his delivery. He hurts us because because we have a lot of guys who struggle against breaking stuff, which, by the way, can be a pain anyway. Hardest for our guys are balls breaking down (they all do) and near the bottom of the zone. Funny thing is, the righty-lefty thing, meaning righty hitters have an advantage over lefty pitchers because the slider or curve will break toward them and be easier to see and anticipate, doesn't seem to help much against Sabathia. Keeping it low helps him, but he also has a very good changeup, which will break low and away from a righty. And, like Sale, he's good at spotting a slider on the outside corner against a righty batter which tempts the batter to take a called strike. What I like about that first game matchup between ERod and Sabathia is that it will give ERod another chance to see how Sabathia gets thru the first two innings and to concentrate on doing his best--almost as though he is our ace of the day because, against us, Sabathia has been an ace. ERod has pretty good stuff, but vastly over-relies on his fastball in the early innings largely because--my opinion--his command usually isn't there in the early innings. He has a good changeup which can be great against righties, but you almost never see it (or a good one) in the first inning and probably not the 2d either. Sabathia has no such inhibitions. Plus there ain't no free lunch. Moving Sabathia to Thursday against those low-life, no good, rotten Red Sox is all well and good, but also invites Cleveland--with whom we are tied for the 2d best record in the AL and who right now is hot--to get a sweep today/tonight.

Bingo. You nailed my no doubt prejudice. It probably boils down to the locks, but is supported by misadventures in LF, not so bright baserunning, and salary. You properly give him credit he is due.

With apologies for no doubt looking too for forward, I checked our 4 starters in the big apple. ERod, Fister, Pom, and Sale. If ERod can just start off well, those are currently our four best in my opinion.

Tip of the hat to Slasher 9 for turning a 4 game losing streak into 2 wins and counting. Also to moonslav for insisting this team was better than those 4 losses and fundamentally sound enough to persevere in this pennant race.