Maxbialystock
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
Maxbialystock replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
That IBB would load the bases. -
Thanks. It has occurred to me that playing the Rays, Cubs, Phillies, and Dodgers is like playing in the postseason--except for how many starters (3?) you need in the postseason. The Dodgers have great hitting and so-so pitching. The Sox have good hitting and good pitching. Tonight sure looks like another game when Rafaela moves to 2b so Cora can get three lefty OF bats into the lineup. Plus Yoshida at DH and Toro at 1b. Righty bats would be Bregman, Story, Rafaela, and Narvaez. Mayer had his MRI yesterday.
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To me Duran is worth more right now than what the Padres are offering. Salas and Cease don't help at all.
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Casas is the exception, not the rule. Devers was the same weight when the Sox signed him to that big contract, which was based on his hitting. He just moved to 1b, which might be the right position for him. Mookie Betts best season ever was 2018 when he played in just 136 games. No one on that team, the best Sox team ever, played more than 150 games. I think managers are in the best position to decide how many games a player should play in. I do think 6.3 games a week for 26 weeks (1/2 year) is a slog.
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If you're saying a great October run isn't in the cards, I agree with you, pending any improvements between now and then. I'll just be happy with the Sox getting to October.
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Mookie played 150 games for the Sox in 2019. Devers was a special case. Interestingly, he's hitting again in part because he is playing 1b for the Giants.
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Amen. Schwarber was a huge pickup in 2021, also Eovaldi in 2018.
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I suppose you're both right, but to me what makes the difference is the ability to mix fastballs with breaking stuff and to avoid throwing too many pitches right down the middle. The dinger Chapman gave up last night was off a fastball right down the middle. Last night Bernardino threw nothing but junk to get that final K. His fastest pitch was 91 mph. I thought Sanchez was great in game 2 because he mixed his pitches and had excellent command. To me the simple physics of a sharp curve vs a 98 mph fastball argues in favor of the curve. Especially devastating can be a pitcher who mixes in splitters (that don't go right down the middle). Also, the ability to hit corners consistently really helps. In 2013 Uehara was incredibly successful with a fastball that picked at 89 mph, a nasty splitter, and excellent control.
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They were 92-70 in 2021, so "wild card" is a tad misleading, especially when they killed the Yankees and their ace in the WC game and they beat the 100 win Rays, 3 games to 1, in the ALDS. They even led the Astros, 2 games to 1, before Astros pitching shut them down for the final 3 games of the ALCS. That was the season when MLB instituted checking pitchers hands, etc, after every inning, which reportedly destroyed Matt Barnes best pitch, a terrific curve ball. He saved 24 games, but in the 2d half turned into a pumpkin--an expensive pumpkin, come to think of it.
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Agree.
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You could be right about 12th toughest. I think the 2025 Sox currently have good hitting, good defense, and--this is the shocker--good pitching. They also are in a position to trade up o/a July 31.
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MLB pitchers go up and down like yo-yos. Houck was great last year and abysmal this year. Sale was down for 4 straight seasons (5 if you count 2019), and then won the Cy Young. Daniel Bard was the quintessential up and down reliever. He pitched for the Sox for 5 seasons, dropped out of MLB for 6 seasons, and came back with the Rockies for 4 seasons, including 2022 when he had 34 saves, 6th most in MLB--and an ERA of 1.79.
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Of course being down by 5 is a recipe for losing. All the more reason to celebrate the Sox comeback and then Narvaez 2 run dinger in the 11th. As I think dannycater pointed out, the Sox also played the Phillies tough in game 1, which the Sox win if Narvaez doesn't get that passed ball. The AL right now has 6 teams either in the wild card zone or within 2.5 games of it. 3 more teams are within 5 games of being a wild card. That leaves just 3 teams--Orioles, A's, and White Sox--who aren't in the wild card hunt. And the Sox have the toughest schedule in MLB. So, to be honest, your pessimism is not without justification. I just prefer the other path.
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You make a very good point about his age. I think the real issue is that his hitting is down from last year, plus now his defense is suspect. Last year his WAR was 8.7 and right now it's 2.4. However, Duran leads the Sox in games played and--wait for it--total freaking bases (177). He is 2d in runs scored and 4th in rbi's and of course leads in triple and doubles. The OP is right. Duran gets traded only if the Sox get real value in return.
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Justice = good word.
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My goodness, I forgot! Thanks for the reminder. The Sox played the Phillies tough in 2/3 games at their park. We win game 1 if Narvaez doesn't have that passed ball.
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Italics/facetiousness notwithstanding, you love to comment on Cora in the game threads. Fact: when the Sox fell behind, I went ahead with doing the dishes and vacuuming our single level home. When I returned, I could not believe that 6-5 score. I'm probably wrong, but I think the Sox lineup is effective because just about everybody--except Toro and Wong--is a threat to do something good. Against a lefty starter tonight, 8 of the 9 Sox rbi's were by righty batters. Duran, Yoshida, and Abreu combined for 9 K's. Cora does know what he is doing.
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The game announcers said the Phillies have not lost this year when up by 5 at any point in the game. So, yes, winning was tough. Why not give the Sox some credit?
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Hard to call this momentum, and no game tomorrow is a blessing. Friday is righty Sheehan vs Bello. I like that matchup. Saturday is Kershaw vs Crochet, both lefties. Sunday is May vs Buehler, both righties with high ERA's. Dodgers lead MLB in runs scored, but their team ERA is 23d. Sox are 5th in runs scored and 10th in team ERA. If the Sox can take 2/3, that's 4-5 against three division leaders. Then 3 @ the Twins, who are 49-53 overall but 28-20 at home. The one thing I fear is that Chapman will have a complete mental breakdown and use that splitter more. It looks awfully tough to hit.
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Giolito gave up 5 in 4 IP, but the bullpen was excellent--1 ER in 7 IP. Sox now 2-4 on a mountainous road trip. Rest tomorrow, face the Dodgers at the Fens Fri, Sat, and Sun.
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Great, clutch win by the good guys. Well managed by Cora even though 90% of the credit goes to the heroics of the Sox. I personally would have started Wong tonight and would have been dead wrong.
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Alcala gets 2 outs. And the run was of course unearned. In comes reliever #7, Bernardino. lefty vs lefty.
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Great K by Alcala, but a disappointment for our favorite skeptic.
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Oh, good. Now our pitching coach goes to the mound to provide detailed guidance and maybe screw up Alcala.
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Alcala is the 7th Sox pitcher and 6th reliever tonight.