Maxbialystock
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Everything posted by Maxbialystock
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Is the AL MVP race pretty much over?
Maxbialystock replied to bosoxmal's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Lindor is, I think, the top-rated defensive SS in MLB and has an OPS of .879 with 36 dingers, 89 rbi's, 124 runs, 23 SB's, etc. His overall WAR, however, is 7.7 to Mookie's 10.7. Still, that OPS is awfully darn impressive when owned by the best fielding SS. The big surprise to me is that earlier in the season Trout had a better DWAR than Mookie. But now Mookie's DWAR is double Trout's. -
Is the AL MVP race pretty much over?
Maxbialystock replied to bosoxmal's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Lindor is, I think, the top-rated defensive SS in MLB and has an OPS of .879 with 36 dingers, 89 rbi's, 124 runs, 23 SB's, etc. His overall WAR, however, is 7.7 to Mookie's 10.7. Still, that OPS is awfully darn impressive when owned by the best fielding SS. -
Really? Why would Cora keep Kelly when he has the 12th best WAR on the Sox pitching staff and an ERA of 10.29 in September. Kelly is an interesting study in relievers this season. He had three great months--April, May, and August--and three horrible ones--June, July, and September.
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I'm thinking the same thing. I think the Yankees had like 8 righty bats and no bad ones (Sanchez came the closest to bad) against Price last week when they got 6 runs off him in 5.1. They also hit ERod and couldn't get to Eovaldi who went 6 scoreless in game 1 before Workman and Brasier coughed up 3.
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Kelly looked awful again last night--no command of his pitches. I think his best modus operandi is to go mostly with breaking stuff--he has a curve, slider, and changeup, all pretty decent--and an occasional fastball. Last night his first pitch was a fastball down the middle, hit squarely for a clean single. Then he tried hitting the corners with his fastball and breaking stuff and walked guys, plus I think he got an out. Interestingly, the Sox currently have 8 starters: Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi, ERod, Johnson, Velazquez, and Wright. Of those 8, the four with the most quality starts are Price, 18, Sale, 17, Porcello, 16, and ERod, 7. So, as much as I like my idea of starting Wright 3 times for, say, 2 innings each time, it also occurs to me that Cora could simply go into the ALDS with 4 short relievers--Kimbrel, Brasier, Barnes, and one other--and 3 long relievers--Wright, Eovaldi or ERod, and Velazquez or Johnson. He can still start those long relievers for 2 or more innings, or he can use them in the traditional way. It appears Cora is currently conducting a mini-camp to see who can pitch in what situation. Eovaldi just might get the 4th starter slot over ERod, which would give Cora two lefty starters and two righty starters.
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That's exactly what I think. At aother time Kimbrel long term might have been affordable, but not next year.
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It pissed me off too. But, to be honest, he did give the lineup a chance to score the go ahead run. I really think he left Cuevas in there so the game would end at a decent hour and they could catch their flight back to Boston to play tonight. Therefore I have redirected my anger at Sunday Night Baseball, which I hate with a passion, and on the lineup for not scoring. This loss did not put home field advantage in jeopardy. Plus Cora got a chance to see Cuevas work 5+ innings.
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That makes a lot of sense. The one thing I thought Lin might be valuable for is pinch-running. By the way, are you advocating 11 pitchers or 10? If the latter, I see these 15 position players. 9 starters: Betts, Beni, JDM, Bogey, Moreland, Kinsler, Devers, Leon, and JBJ. Then these 5: Pearce, Nunez, Holt, Vazquez, Swihart. That leaves 1 guy and maybe that could be Lin, who is almost as versatile as Holt and faster. I think better than Phillips. If it's 11 pitchers--4 starters, and 7 in the bullpen, then Lin is out.
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I want him off the roster. I want him deported or rocketed to the moon. But, honestly, you could be right. Last night he looked pretty darn good. Maybe he just needs to use his fast ball less and the other stuff more. I liked that changeup.
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Really? Epic? Wright has made 17 appearances this year, pitched 50 innings, and been tagged for 15 earns runs. In one of those 16 games, the disaster vs. Seattle, he gave up 10 runs in 3.1 innings (it was a start). If you toss that 1 game out, in the other 16 games he went 46.2 innings and gave up 5 earned runs, which means an ERA of under 1 for those 16 appearances. Get back to me when you can name another reliever in MLB this season who can get his ERA under 1 by just throwing out one appearance. I completely agree knucklers can be vulnerable. I believe rain will do it. Maybe cold weather, I don't know. So you could end up being right, but right now the numbers are on Wright's side.
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Several problems with your approach-- 1. Yes, a knee issue, but he has been fine since he came back. Besides, no proposed use of him as a reliever is any better than the others. So, yes, the knee could go, but it's not a tiebreaker on how to use him. 2. No, his knuckler, since he came back, has not suddenly disappeared. In fact, he has been by far the most reliable pitcher on the team, including Sale. He's good for 1 inning or 3 innings. Granted, small sample size since he returned, but even before the DH time he was pretty good. Try these numbers on for size. He's gone 50 innings and given up 15 runs, season to date. It you take out just one game, the disaster vs. Seattle when he gave up 10 runs in 3.1 innings, he has gone 46.2 innings and given up 5 runs, which converts to an ERA of less than 1 for the other 16 games he has pitched in. And you have him as the 4th best guy in the bullpen. However, that does explain why you have no idea how to use him or what he can do. Did you not know, for example, he has actually started games and done well? 3. Ready to go at an instant's notice? Are you nuts? First you say he's fragile and can barely manage. But having him ready to go at an instant's notice means keeping him warmed up in the bullpen. The only time managers can have guys ready now is when they are sure the starter (or the reliever) on the mound is about due to come out. So they have guys warming up in advance, almost always in the late innings. 4. Dance routine? What the heck does that mean?
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Not necessary? You like our bullpen? You are confident our top three starters are good for 7 innings per game? I do like your term scripting, however. You're absolutely right. I said start Wright 3 times, which would keep him from relieving. However-- Nothing prevents Cora from doing it in the first game as a test. If it works, he can try it again. If not, not. In 2016 Porcello and Price started the first two ALDS games against the Guardians and both got blown away. Last year Sale started the first ALDS game and got blown away. So my question is, why are you so confident that this year is different and that Sale and Price and Porcello are going to be lights out in the first three games this year? And what the heck do you mean by overcomplicated? We've seen this tactic work and work well for the Rays. It is in fact dead simple. Just send Wright out for the first two innings instead of the 7th and 8th innings.
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Well, the returns are in. My third option of starting Wright in 3 games has been universally condemned. I like your response the best, because, unlike the glittering generalities to condemn my heresy, you've provided some specifics. In fact, some pretty good specifics. You've got the same first three starters I--and most everyone else--would have. I might start ERod 4th, but think Eovaldi could do as well and maybe better. Best of all, you only use three other relievers besides Wright--Kimbrel, Brasier, and Barnes. Spot on. Oh, and you send Wright out there twice--game 1 and game 4--to long relieve Sale and Eovaldi. Pretty neat. Your approach beyond question optimizes the few strengths in an otherwise weak bullpen. But here's the problem. To make that work you have to assume your top three starters, who will start 4 of the 5 (if the ALDS goes to that) games, can go 6, 7, 7, and 7 innings against 1 of the top 5 run-producing lineups in MLB. That's right: the Yankees, Guardians, Astros, and A's are all in the top 5 out of 30 MLB teams. I did a quick check and found that those three--Sale, Price, and Porcello--made 19 starts this year against those 4 teams and got to 7 innings 6 times. On top of that all three pitched for the Sox in the ALDS last year and two of them in the ALDS the year before. How did those two series go? And that leads me to my next point. I completely agree having Wright start the 1st, 3d, and 5th games in the ALDS is a radical idea. And, frankly, I don't expect Cora to do that at this late date. He's going to agree with everyone else on this thread and use Wright in the traditional role of long reliever. Which leads to my final point. This radical, outlandish idea is now on a thread. If the Sox take the ALDS--just that, nothing more--I will be the first one on this thread to say, very happily, I was wrong. But . . .
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First the non-conundrum. Right now I think Wright is close to the most valuable pitcher on the team. Not the best--that's Sale. But Wright can start and has, can close, and has, and can do long relief. And right now that knuckler is really working. The first conundrum is whether to make him a starter or reliever in the post season. I think that one's pretty easy--leave him in the bullpen because he can have an effect on more games and because the bullpen right now is in disarray. The second conundrum is how to use him as a reliever. Forget closing--let Kimbrel do that. But long relief could be crucial because, in addition to a weak bullpen, we don't have starters who consistently go beyond 6 innings. In fact, falling short of 6 is almost the standard. Enter Wright. In a five game series he could do that twice, maybe 3 times,which could be huge. But the Rays manager has shown how effective a reliever can be starting a game and going 1 or 2 or 3 innings. Better still, Wright would be perfect in that role because his knuckler messes up the other team's hitters' timing. So what if Wright "starts" the 1st, 3d, and 5th games of the ALDS and goes maybe 2 innings in each? Now the starter only has to go 6 innings--made easier by following Wright--and leave the 9th inning for Kimbrel.
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A Realistic View at 2018: Part II
Maxbialystock replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Price still has 4 years on an insane contract of over $30M year. In the first three years (almost) of his contract, he has been worth about 1/2 of that $30M+/year. So how did the subject of his opting out even come up? To me that would be like Pablo and HanRam wiring DD and asking him to please discontinue those monthly salary checks because they feel they haven't earned them. -
Interesting. How does any manager change a player? Right now Mookie's WAR is 10.2, which is fantastic. Two years ago it was 9.6 with OPS .897, rbi's 113, dingers 31, runs 122, SB's 26, etc. Right now his OPS is 1.057, rbi's 77, dingers 30, runs 121, SB's 28. The big dip in performance was last year 2017, which you appear to want to blame on Farrell in order to give Cora credit for transforming him. But what really happened was that Mookie blossomed in 2016 in part because Ortiz also had a great year. Last year, no Ortiz. This year, JDM, the reincarnation of David Ortiz. I do think Cora has been terrific this year. And I normally disagree with Jung on practically everything. But, boy, the case for Cash is pretty strong, and I am indebted to Jung for reminding me. His word choice of miracle is just about dead on.
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Finally, the lineup asserted itself after two abysmal games. ERod,like Price the night before, demonstrated how tough the Yankees lineup can be on lefties--aided this time by Hembree's hanging slider that Stanton poked over the RF wall. Wright was great, but the rest of the bullpen continues to be worrisome except for Zimbrel. Brasier did OK last night, but I thought got away with some really fat pitches, maybe because Wright had messed up the Yankee hitters timing. Tonight the Sox start 3 at Cleveland against another postseason opponent that, like the Yankees, has good hitting and decent pitching. I don't see Wright going 3 more tonight.
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I disagree he is capable of that right now against a good lineup. He does not have good command of his pitches and over relies on his fastball which the Yankees hit with ease (except when he throws it high and the swing at it.
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Meh. My opinion, for what it's worth, is that your expectation was way too high: the Yankees right now have the best lineup in MLB, better than ours; they had 8 righty bats; ERod can't keep the ball low consistently, especially not for stgrikes; ERod doesn't have great breaking stuff with which to challenge hitters.
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I'm not sure I buy the nibbled himself to death theory. My view is that the Yankees were killing most everything in the strike zone, but especially ERod's fast ball. Absolutely, ERod was using too many pitches, but that's a function of his inability to hit corners, especially with his breaking stuff. Am I the only one on this thread who realizes that 1) season to date, the Yankees have the 2d best hitting in MLB and lead in dingers? 2) their lineup is even hotter lately, especially with Judge back? 3) the Yankees had 8 pretty good righty bats in their lineup?
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Not sure I agree. His favorite pitch by far is his fastball, and the Yankees love it even more than he does. If he threw wicked breaking stuff to contact, I could see it. But not that fastball. And, by the way, the Sox are also hitting Tanaka's fast ball well.
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What a crock. The Sox bullpen to a man is dead meat in this series. Or aren't you keeping track of that stuff?
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I think the ump favored Tanaka on the close ones and that ERod got screwed on I think the first guy he walked. But the root problem with ERod and basically the whole team is none of them is comfortable keeping the ball low. Hembree hung a slider up. In addition ERod and Price both over-rely on fast balls and cut fast balls which ain't fooling anyone. Tanaka has as good a fast ball as ERod, but it's almost a waste pitch with him because he relies on breaking stuff down.
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Exactly. He's as ready as he ever will be. He does not have great stuff, but he has a good selection and knows he has to work the corners, etc. I'd like to see him better at throwing low in the zone. I have mostly been anti-Porcello, but not now. In fact, Price getting hammered last night notwithstanding, I like our postseason rotation. And here's a thought. Remember Andrew Miller who became the world's great set up reliever? Well, I think the weirdo knuckleballer just might have that same potential. He walks guys, true. Plus a passed ball now and then. But since he returned he's made six appearances with no runs scored. And Kimbrel? Since August 12, 11 appearances and 1 run. The problem, however, is that we probably need four very good arms in the bullpen because our starters normally don't get to the 7th. Right now I'm thinking Porcello as the #3 starter. ERod is probably better, but he would make it 3 straight lefties.
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Nice.

